Albama Arkansas Auburn Florida Georgia Kentucky LSU Mississippi State Missouri Ole-Miss USC Tennessee Texas A&M Vanderbilt

MrSEC Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 11/30/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call our Quick Strike measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Turns out, we aren’t the only math geeks out there who like this stat.  A bigger math geek than those of us here at MrSEC.com — and we mean that in a good way — has tested our numbers, applied them to the Big Ten, and found that there’s a clear correlation between a good Quick Strike number and wins in that league as well.  You can find the analysis of ElevenWarriors.com here.

With the regular season complete, we’ll look only at the numbers from SEC versus SEC contests.

Without further ado, our Quick Strike measure:

 

  School   Points Scored Vs SEC   Offensive Plays   Points/Play
  Alabama  7-1   303   514   .589
  Georgia  7-1   268   545   .491
  Texas A&M  6-2   313   659   .474
  S. Carolina  6-2   229   523   .437
  Tennessee  1-7   246   575   .427
  Florida  7-1   207   515   .401
  Ole Miss  3-5   224   589   .380
  Miss. State  4-4   202   534   .378
  Vanderbilt  5-3   177   557   .317
  LSU  6-2   180   569   .316
  Missouri  2-6   175   586   .298
  Arkansas  2-6   157   569   .275
  Auburn  0-8   81   444   .182
  Kentucky 0-8   89   492   .180

 

Observations:

*  Yep, you read that right.  The two best teams in terms of this scoring efficiency measure are the two teams that will meet tomorrow in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.  Ironically, both Alabama and Georgia clearly took the air out of the ball when they thumped Auburn at year’s end or both teams might have been even further ahead of the back.  The Tide was the only team in the conference this year to averaged more than a half-point for every offensive snap taken.  In other words, every two plays Bama runs equals about one point on the scoreboard.  Give an ever-so-slight edge to Alabama in this area tomorrow.

*  The numbers break out almost exactly as you would expect in terms of teams’ final SEC records.  The three outliers were Tennessee, Florida and LSU.  The Vols’ should have had a better record this year if not for an historically bad defensive unit.  Things were just the opposite for Florida and LSU — especially LSU — as both teams leaned on their defenses to register more league wins than they really should have (in terms of scoring efficiency).

Post Comments » Comments (14)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Slow Grind 11/15/12

What’s the opposite of a Quick Strike team that piles up points in the blink of an eye?  A defense-first club that forces its opponents to slowly grind out points over a large number of plays.  Thus… our Slow Grind measure.

Over the past five years we’ve found that a very efficient way of predicting a team’s success is to look at the number of plays said team forces its foes to run in order to score touchdowns.  This is not the exact opposite of our Quick Strike number (basically: points per offensive snap), but a totally different measurement (defensive snaps run for every defensive touchdown allowed).

Simply: How many plays must an offense run — on average — to score a touchdown against a specific defense?

Read the rest of this entry »

Post Comments » Comments (5)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 11/15/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call our Quick Strike measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

Post Comments » No Comments

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Slow Grind 11/8/12

What’s the opposite of a Quick Strike team that piles up points in the blink of an eye?  A defense-first club that forces its opponents to slowly grind out points over a large number of plays.  Thus… our Slow Grind measure.

Over the past five years we’ve found that a very efficient way of predicting a team’s success is to look at the number of plays said team forces its foes to run in order to score touchdowns.  This is not the exact opposite of our Quick Strike number (basically: points per offensive snap), but a totally different measurement (defensive snaps run for every defensive touchdown allowed).

Simply: How many plays must an offense run — on average — to score a touchdown against a specific defense? Read the rest of this entry »

Post Comments » Comments (3)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 11/8/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call our Quick Strike measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

Post Comments » Comments (2)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Slow Grind 10/18/12

What’s the opposite of a Quick Strike team that piles up points in the blink of an eye?  A defense-first club that forces its opponents to slowly grind out points over a large number of plays.  Thus… our Slow Grind measure.

Over the past five years we’ve found that a very efficient way of predicting a team’s success is to look at the number of plays said team forces its foes to run in order to score touchdowns.  This is not simply the opposite of our Quick Strike number (basically: points per offensive snap), but a totally different measurement (defensive snaps run for every defensive touchdown allowed).

Simply: How many plays must an offense run — on average — to score a touchdown against a specific defense?

Read the rest of this entry »

Post Comments » Comments (5)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 10/18/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call our Quick Strike measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Read the rest of this entry »

Post Comments » Comments (2)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Slow Grind 10/4/12

What’s the opposite of a Quick Strike team that piles up points in the blink of an eye?  A defense-first club that forces its opponents to slowly grind out points over a large number of plays.  Thus… our Slow Grind measure.

Over the past five years we’ve found that a very efficient way of predicting a team’s success is to look at the number of plays said team forces its foes to run in order to score touchdowns.  This is not simply the opposite of our Quick Strike number (basically: points per offensive snap), but a totally different measurement (defensive snaps run for every defensive touchdown allowed).

Simply: How many plays must an offense run — on average — to score a touchdown against a specific defense?

We do not count special teams scores or interception/fumble returns in this equation.  This is strictly a look at touchdowns — not total points — allowed by a team as compared to how many snaps a defensive unit was on the field.  Still, however, special teams and offensive production do factor in overall.  A good special teams unit will pin an opponent deep in its own end, forcing it to string together multiple plays to score (and with each additional snap run, there’s a greater chance for a turnover).  Steady, grind-it-out offenses can also eat up clock and limit a foe’s time of possession.

Happily, the folks at ElevenWarriors.com studied our numbers and found them to be quite accurate at predicting Big Ten success just as we’ve found them to correlate nicely with SEC wins.  The more we see them applied elsewhere — and the more they work — the better we feel.

Once we get deeper into the season, we’ll look at SEC versus SEC numbers, but for now — so early in the year — we’ll take the numbers from all games against FBS foes into account.

So here’s one of our old favorites, the Slow Grind measure…

 

  School  Def. TDs Allowed vs FBS   Def. Plays vs FBS
  Def. Plays/TD Allowed
  Texas A&M   3   237   79.00
  S. Carolina   5   330   66.00
  Alabama   5   290   58.00
  Miss. State   4   221   55.25
  LSU   5   230   46.00
  Florida   7   279   39.85
  Georgia   12   367   30.58
  Auburn   11   312   28.36
  Ole Miss   11   282   25.63
  Missouri   14   276   19.71
  Vanderbilt   11   212   19.27
  Kentucky   19   364   19.15
  Tennessee   15   282   18.80
  Arkansas   23   321   13.95

 

Observations:

*  Keep in mind that so far this season SEC defenses are on the field for an average of 69.96 plays per game.

*  Hey, I thought Kevin Sumlin was supposed to be an offensive coach.  The Aggies — granted against just three FBS foes — are giving up less than a touchdown a game on defense when you simply go by the numbers.

* South Caroilna, Alabama and LSU are all in the top five in the SEC in terms of our Slow Grind measure.  No surprise.  Those three defenses were expected to rank at the top of the chart before the season started and they likely will when the season comes to a close.

* Hey, I thought Dan Mullen was supposed to be an offensive coach.  Like Sumlin at A&M, Mullen’s has to be pleased that his defense is playing as well as it has.  One reason the Bulldogs give up so few touchdowns?  They turn their opponents over — 15 takeaways total.

* Missouri, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas… yikes.  When your opponents score a touchdown once every 18 or 19 plays, that’s pretty bad.  When they’re scoring once every 13.95 plays — as they are against the Razorbacks — it horrific.  The Hog offense is turning the ball over too often, but Paul Haynes’ unit just hasn’t put the brakes on anyone from Jacksonville State right on through Texas A&M last week.

Post Comments » Comments (15)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 10/4/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call the “Quick Strike” measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Turns out, we aren’t the only math geeks out there who like this stat.  A bigger math geek than those of us here at MrSEC.com — and we mean that in a good way — has tested our numbers, applied them to the Big Ten, and found that there’s a clear correlation between a good Quick Strike number and wins in that league as well.  You can find the analysis of ElevenWarriors.com here.

Now, the deeper we get into the season, the more telling this statistic will become.  Eventually, we’ll begin using only numbers from SEC-versus-SEC games.  For now, however, we must use the points scored and plays run against all FBS opponents.

So without further ado, here are the Quick Strike numbers to date for the SEC’s 14 teams versus FBS competition.

 

  School   Pts/Scored vs FBS   Off. Plays vs FBS   Pts/Off. Play
  Georgia   241   336   .717
  Alabama   201   316   .636
  LSU   157   276   .568
  S. Carolina   183   323   .566
  Texas A&M   123   235   .523
  Florida   122   263   .463
  Miss. State   88   192   .458
  Tennessee   146   325   .449
  Ole Miss   112   277   .404
  Kentucky   109   341   .319
  Auburn   70   238   .294
  Missouri   75   285   .263
  Arkansas   67   284   .235
  Vanderbilt   29   187   .155

 

Observations:

*  Georgia is the rare offense that has the ability to score via big plays through the air and on the ground with freshmen tailbacks Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall.

*  Alabama might not be flashy, but they’re efficient.  If not for having to settle for four field goals against Ole Miss last week, the Tide would be even closer to Georgia in terms of points per play.

*  LSU has shot itself in the foot quite a bit with fumbles, red zone turnovers and penalties, but against FBS foes it really hasn’t mattered a whole lot yet.

* Mississippi State only has 88 points versus FBS foes on the year, but they’ve also needed just 192 offensive snaps to post those points.  Why?  Because MSU leads the nation in turnover margin and Tyler Russell and company are cashing in on short fields provided by State’s opportunistic D.

* Coming into the season, who would have guessed that Missouri (with James Franklin) and Arkansas (with Tyler Wilson) would rank 12th and 13th in the conference in this Quick Strike measure?  Yes, there have been some extenuating circumstances and both of those QBs have missed a game this year, but still, to see the Tigers and Razorbacks near the bottom of the SEC in an offensive category is rather surprising.

Post Comments » Comments (11)

 

 

MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Slow Grind

What’s the opposite of a Quick Strike team that piles up points in the blink of an eye?  A defense-first club that forces its opponents to slowly grind out points over a large number of plays.  Thus… our Slow Grind measure.

Over the past five years we’ve found that a very efficient way of predicting a team’s success is to look at the number of plays said team forces its foes to run in order to score touchdowns.  This is not simply the opposite of our Quick Strike number (basically: points per offensive snap), but a totally different measurement (defensive snaps run for every defensive touchdown allowed).

Simply: How many plays must an offense run — on average — to score a touchdown against a specific defense?

We do not count special teams scores or interception/fumble returns in this equation.  This is strictly a look at touchdowns — not total points — allowed by a team as compared to how many snaps a defensive unit was on the field.  Still, however, special teams and offensive production do factor in overall.  A good special teams unit will pin an opponent deep in its own end, forcing it to string together multiple plays to score (and with each additional snap run, there’s a greater chance for a turnover).  Steady, grind-it-out offenses can also eat up clock and limit a foe’s time of possession.

Happily, the folks at ElevenWarriors.com studied our numbers and found them to be quite accurate at predicting Big Ten success just as we’ve found them to correlate nicely with SEC wins.  The more we see them applied elsewhere — and the more they work — the better we feel.

As we stated earlier in breaking down our Quick Strike measurement, we know that the season is young and that all teams have not played the same types of foes to date.  Once we get deeper into the season and are able to use numbers from SEC-versus-SEC contests only, this data will become more meaningful.

Still, with a quarter of the regular season behind us, we felt now would be a good time to take the lid off one of our old standards — the Slow Grind measure.  Have a look…

 

  School   Def. TDs Allowed vs FBS   Def. Plays vs FBS   Def. Plays/TD Allowed
  S. Carolina   2   209   104.50
  Alabama   2   177   88.50
  Texas A&M   2   139   69.50
  Miss. State   3   148   49.33
  LSU   4   178   44.50
  Vanderbilt   4   139   34.75
  Georgia   7   221   31.57
  Florida   7   220   31.42
  Auburn   10   241   24.10
  Kentucky   10   225   22.50
  Tennessee   7   143   20.42
  Missouri   8   134   16.75
  Ole Miss   9   148   16.44
  Arkansas   12   168   14.00

 

So what should you make of that?  That South Carolina is pretty darn good defensively.  Against Vanderbilt, East Carolina and UAB the Gamecocks have allowed just two touchdowns on defense in 209 plays run.  Jadeveon Clowney and crew are allowing a touchdown every 104.5 plays.

On the other end of the spectrum, there’s Arkansas.  Against Louisiana-Monroe and Alabama, the Razorbacks are letting their opponents score once every 14 plays.  That’s horrific.  The return of Tyler Wilson and a little bit of life on offense should help Paul Haynes’ defense greatly.

Post Comments » One Comment

 

 



Follow Us On:
Mobile MrSEC