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Vince’s Vibe: Week 5 picks

Here’s the complete schedule of SEC football games this weekend with details, analysis and a score prediction for each game.

 

My record last week was 10-0. My record after week 4, straight-up, is 39-5.

 

Schedule of Saturday, Sept. 29 Games

*Rankings are AP first/Coaches second

 

OPEN:  Auburn (1-3, 0-2 SEC); #11/12 Florida (4-0, 3-0 SEC); #19/21 Mississippi State (4-0, 1-0 SEC); Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-2 SEC)

 

Missouri (2-2, 0-2 SEC) at Central Florida (2-1)

12 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. CT • FSN

Orlando, Fla. • Bright House Networks Stadium (45,301)

Vince’s View:  UCF is actually the favorite in this game, if you can believe that. UCF isn’t eligible for the postseason but it has generally still played hard. UCF has speed and athletes. UCF also won’t be greatly out-sized in this game like it would versus many other SEC teams. Missouri has been up-and-down this season. The Tigers have wins outside of SEC play, but both of those came at home. Mizzou has had field goal kicking issues. QB James Franklin is struggling. If he doesn’t improve this week, the Knights can win this game. He deserves the benefit of the doubt though.

Winner: Missouri 35-27

 

Arkansas (1-3, 0-1 SEC) at Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC)

12:21 p.m. ET / 11:21 a.m. CT • SEC Network

College Station, Texas • Kyle Field (82,589)

Vince’s View:  The Arkansas defense is going to have a tough time defending the Aggies, especially QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is a dual-threat QB who has been poised and fantastic on third-down. Turnovers have killed the Razorbacks this year. A&M has been pretty good in that department. That will be the key in this one for the Aggies.

Winner: Texas A&M 41-27

 

Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC) at #5 Georgia (4-0, 2-0 SEC)

3:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. CT • CBS Sports

Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)

Vince’s View:  Georgia’s defense is getting better every week. Now, it looks like it gets two more elite starters back this week in ILB Alec Ogletree and FS Bacarri Rambo. Georgia’s offensive line has been better than expected. The freshmen RBs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall have been as good, or better, than advertised. Tennessee has a puncher’s chance because of the passing game firepower when QB Tyler Bray and the talented receivers are on-point. The Vols have had issues with: knowing assignments due to communication breakdowns; tackling; speed in the secondary; converting in short yardage on offense; inconsistent running game; place-kicking; handling adversity when behind on the scoreboard; winning on the road outside the state of Tennessee in the SEC under Derek Dooley; and beating a ranked opponent under Derek Dooley. That’s a long list for UT to overcome, if it plays as we’ve seen this season. In order for Tennessee to win, this needs to be the single best game Tennessee has played in the Derek Dooley era. Plus, Georgia has to be disinterested and lose the turnover battle by two or more.

Winner: Georgia 35-14

 

Towson (2-1) at #3 LSU (4-0, 1-0 SEC)

7 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. CT • ESPNU

Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (92,542)

Vince’s View:  None needed.

Winner: LSU 59-0

 

#6 South Carolina (4-0, 2-0 SEC) at Kentucky (1-3, 0-1 SEC)

7 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. CT • ESPN2

Lexington, Ky. • Commonwealth Stadium / C.M. Newton Field (67,942)

Vince’s View:  South Carolina is playing terrific defense. Now, the Gamecocks get All-SEC safety D.J. Swearinger back from his one-game suspension. Also, CB Akeem Auguste will see some action in his return from injury. Not that SC needs the additional help. Kentucky should get starting QB Max Smith back this game, which will at least give the ‘Cats some sort of offense. Kentucky isn’t good enough to stop SC and win this game.

Winner: South Carolina 45-13

 

Ole Miss (3-1) at #1 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC)

9:15 p.m. ET / 8:15 p.m. CT • ESPN

Tuscaloosa, Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)

Vince’s View:  How dominant has Alabama’s defense been? The Tide defense has held opponents to less than 20 yards in 33 of 47 drives (70%) this season. Opposing offenses have been held to less than 10 yards in 24 of 47 drives (51%). Alabama is giving-up an average of only 5 points per game. That being said, as strange as it sounds, Ole Miss has the best offense (24th in the country) Alabama has faced this year. Ole Miss’ defense can’t stop physical, balanced teams. QB A.J. McCarron is 4th in the country in passing efficiency. The Tide RB stable is deep and talented. The offensive line is one of the country’s best units.

Winner: Alabama 38-10

 

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