Offense or defense?

Running or passing?

We wanted to know which statistics provided a more accurate gauge of overall success during the 2012 SEC football season.  When talking about the SEC, defense is usually the first word out of the mouth of any coach, fan or pundit.  Should it be?

From looking at six key (yet simple) statistics, the answer is yes.

Yesterday, we found that passing defense (opponents’ yards-per-pass-attempt) was more closely related to SEC wins and losses than passing offense (yards-per-pass-attempt).

This morning, we found that rushing defense (opponents’ yards-per-carry) was more closely tied to SEC wins and losses than rushing offense (yards-per-carry).

Now, we’ll compare the yards-per-play numbers of each school on offense and on defense (opponents’ yards-per-play).  Which statistic do you think served as a more accurate predictor of gridiron success?

2012 SEC Total Offense / Yards-Per-Play

The top three teams in this category all finished with six of more SEC wins.  Also, the two SEC squads that went winless in 2012 ranked at the bottom of this chart.  Obviously, offensive ability matters.

It just doesn’t matter as much as team’s defensive ability.  Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida and LSU all ranked in the bottom half of the SEC in yards-per-play on offense yet those four teams went a combined 24-8 in league play last year.  Meanwhile, Tennessee, MSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss all finished in the top half of the league in this measure while compiling a combined record of 10-22.

If our previous conclusions hold water, teams’ overall defensive rankings (opponents’ yards-per-play) should be the most telling of the six statistics we’ve broken down.

2012 SEC Total Defense / Opponents’ Yards-Per-Play

How’s that for lining up correctly?

The seven SEC squads with winning league marks in 2012 all ranked in the top half of the conference in yards-per-play allowed.  Those teams totaled a combined record of 44-12.  The seven squads with SEC winning percentages of .500 or lower all ranked in the bottom seven of the league in this category.  Those teams finished the year 12-44.

To take things even further, the top four teams in this category (Florida, Alabama, South Carolina and LSU) went 26-6 in the SEC in 2012.  The six teams that ranked in the middle (Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri and MSU) went 27-21 combined.  And the four teams that the bottom of the table?  Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee finished a combined 3-29 on the season.

We wanted to know if defense really did trump offense in the Southeastern Conference last year.  The numbers say it did.  Whether it’s rushing defense, passing defense, or total defense, SEC wins and losses are still most often determined by strength on defense, not on offense.

Offense or defense?

Running or passing?

We wanted to know which statistics provided a more accurate gauge of overall success during the 2012 SEC football season.  When talking about the SEC, defense is usually the first word out of the mouth of any coach, fan or pundit.  Should it be?

In an effort to find out, we took six key (but simple) statistics from last season and compared them to the win/loss records of each of the 14 SEC schools..  We used only stats from conference games (SEC versus SEC) and we’ve compared only last season’s conference records.  Last year’s SEC title game was not included in our study.

In this piece, we’ll look at the defensive side of the ball.  Below you will find last year’s SEC teams ranked according to their opponents’ yards-per-carry average:

2012 SEC Rushing Defense / Opponents’ Yards-Per-Carry

Observations

*  Just as pass defense meant a little bit more than pass offense, rushing defense means a bit more in SEC play than rushing offense.  Teams that held their opponents to under four yards per rush attempt totaled 44 wins against just 20 losses in SEC play last year.  Teams that allowed more than four yards per carry finished a combined 12-36 in the league.

*  Again, there were some exceptions to the rule, but there were fewer of them.  Arkansas and Ole Miss stand out among the teams near the top of the chart, but those two squads led the league in giveaways last season, undermining their ability to stop their foes’ ground games.  Vanderbilt was lone winning team ranked in the bottom six of this category, but four of their five league wins came against other teams that allowed more than four yards per carry.

*  Simply put, running the ball effectively helps, but stopping opposing teams from running effectively is much more important when it comes to winning football games in the SEC.

*  To compare these numbers to SEC squads’ rushing ability last season, click here to find our breakdown of teams’ in the offensive yards-per-carry category.  Also, check out our pass game comparisons by clicking here to see yards-per-attempt data and by clicking here to see opponents’ yards-per-attempt data.

Offense or defense?

Running or passing?

We wanted to know which statistics provided a more accurate gauge of overall success during the 2012 SEC football season.  When talking about the SEC, defense is usually the first word out of the mouth of any coach, fan or pundit.  Should it be?

In an effort to find out, we took six key (but simple) statistics from last season and compared them to the win/loss records of each of the 14 SEC schools.  We used only stats from conference games (SEC versus SEC) and we’ve compared only last season’s conference records.  Last year’s SEC title game was not included in our study.

In this piece, we’ll look at the defensive side of the ball.  Below you will find last year’s SEC teams ranked according to their opponents’ yards-per-pass-attempt average:

2012 SEC Passing Defense / Opponents’ Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt

Observations

*  When it comes to predicting success in the SEC, this statistic is much more helpful than its offensive counterpart.  Being able to throw the ball is important, but not as important as being able to prevent your opponent from successfully throwing the football.

*  With the exception of 2-6 Missouri, every other team in the SEC that held its opponents to 7.4 yards-per-pass-attempt or less won five or more league games.  The top eight teams in this category were a combined 46-18 in the SEC last season.

*  The bottom six SEC squads in this particular pass defense measure were a combined 10-38 in league play.  Of those six schools — Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas — only MSU managed to finish at .500.

*  The quick takeaway: If you want to win an SEC football game, passing the ball isn’t as important as stopping the other team from passing the ball.

*  You can see the breakdown for offensive yards-per-pass-attempt by clicking here.

Offense or defense?

Running or passing?

We wanted to know which statistics provided a more accurate gauge of overall success during the 2012 SEC football season.  When talking about the SEC, defense is usually the first word out of the mouth of any coach, fan or pundit.  Should it be?

In an effort to find out, we took six key (but simple) statistics from last season and compared them to the win/loss records of each of the 14 SEC schools.  We used only stats from conference games (SEC versus SEC) and we’ve compared only last season’s conference records.  Last year’s SEC title game was not included in our study.

In this piece, we’ll start on the offensive side of the ball.  Below you will find last year’s SEC teams ranked according to their yards-per-pass-attempt average:

2012 SEC Passing Offense / Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt

Observations

*  Five of the top six teams in yards-per-pass won at least five SEC games last season.  The lone exception was Ole Miss.  So why didn’t the Rebels’ win on par with the league’s other high-flying squads?  It might have been Mississippi’s turnover woes.  Hugh Freeze’s squad turned the ball over 29 times last season to rank 13th of out of 14 SEC teams in giveaways (only Arkansas had more with 31).

*  For the most part, the league’s bottom-feeders in 2012 (Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Missouri and Kentucky) all ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards-per-attempt.  There were two exceptions: Florida (7-1) and LSU (6-2).  Of course, they both had pretty stingy defenses… which we’ll cover in another post.

*  The top four squads in this category all return their starting quarterbacks this season: AJ McCarron, Aaron Murray, Bo Wallace and Connor Shaw.

*  So is this a very telling stat when it comes to predicting SEC success?  You’ll see this afternoon and tomorrow that there are other measures that relate much more closely to SEC wins and losses.  For example, check out the breakdown for defensive yards-per-pass-attempt by clicking here.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson‘s recruitment has stayed the same since he committed to Clemson more than 15 months ago.

He continues to say he’s solid to the Tigers while more and more schools keep recruiting him.

The latest school is Alabama. The Crimson Tide offered Watson a scholarship last week, joining a list that includes Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon and Southern California.

Watson, who’s ranked the nation’s No. 1 quarterback by Rivals.com, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution he’s used to all the attention from other schools.

“I can’t tell them to stop coming by here,” he said. “They can still come by and check out another player on my team but still watch me. You know, I can’t ever tell a school not to recruit me because it’s an honor and a privilege for them to throw me a full ride offer and (tell) me to come play at the school and get a free education.”

Watson, who attends Gainesville (Ga.) High School, has entertained the idea of visiting other schools. He told ESPN RecruitingNation last month that he would take all five official visits this fall but has since softened on the idea. Instead, he told the AJC he has a list of “fallback schools” in case the status of his commitment to Clemson changes.

“For me, it would be Auburn, Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, USC and Oregon,” Watson said.

Georgia is intriguing. The home-state school has shown strong interest in Watson, who’s the only quarterback in the 2014 class to receive a scholarship offer from the Bulldogs.

“They have let it be known that I am their guy for 2014 and the only quarterback they plan to go after,” Watson told ESPN. “Mike Bobo and Mark Richt said they want a local guy to take over their offense and lead them to a national championship.”

Georgia will be looking for a new starting quarterback in 2014 after senior Aaron Murray departs. Alabama will be as well with AJ McCarron entering his senior year in Tuscaloosa.

Auburn has a group of quarterbacks set to return in 2014 but no one has set himself apart from the others. That opportunity for early playing time, which Clemson can also offer as Tajh Boyd enters his final year in college, will be the sales pitch from several schools recruiting Watson.

He can expect to hear more from those schools between now and the day he finally steps on a college campus. As Gainesville coach Bruce Miller told the AJC, “every school” is interested in Watson. And he doesn’t seem bothered by the attention.

“That’s going to keep on happening,” Watson said.

Leslie eligible for LSU

Wide receiver Quantavius Leslie received good news this week when he learned he will be eligible to play at LSU this fall, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

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When Auburn announced that it was putting together a blue ribbon panel to look into the operations of the school’s athletic department, it didn’t appear to be good news for Tiger AD Jay Jacobs.  After all, what embattled manager would want a group of outsiders to come in and grade the way he’s running his department?

But yesterday, Auburn president Jay Gogue wrote an open letter to the “Auburn family” stating that the six-man committee was A-OK with most of what it found in Jacobs’ athletic department:

“Dear Auburn Family,

The committee I appointed to review operations of Auburn Athletics as part of the Department’s annual evaluation has provided its findings.  I’m grateful to members of the committee for their hard work, good thinking and dedication to help Auburn Athletics move forward.

We asked the committee to review the Department’s total body of work with a focus on five areas: academic and support services for student-athletes; financial management; customer service; competition, including winning, sportsmanship and compliance; and management structure.

Athletics Director Jay Jacobs and I have talked in length about their recommendations.  In general, they center on steps to improve overall operations of the Department, upgrade how we interact and communicate with fans and alumni, and enhance the game-day experience, on and off the field.  Jay will talk in more detail about what’s in store, and I’m confident he will move forward to put in place a plan to give the Auburn family what we all expect.

There’s much to celebrate about Auburn Athletics, but there’s also room for substantial improvement.  I look forward to Jay providing the leadership needed to make the necessary improvements.

War Eagle!

Jay Gogue”

Translation: “We hear ya, but Jay’s our guy.”

Committee member Mac Crawford — a man some have mentioned as a potential replacement for Jacobs — put out a statement supporting Auburn’s AD as well: “Our review shows that overall, the Athletics Department is in good shape, but there are some areas where improvements can be made and our committee believes Jay Jacobs knows how to make those improvements.”

The situation on the Plains is beginning to remind this writer of what went down at Ole Miss before Rebel AD Pete Boone stepped down (and new AD Ross Bjork was hired).  Repeatedly, UM chancellor Daniel Jones backed Boone against critical fans.  Eventually, however, the grassroots movement to oust Boone led to change anyway.

Ironically, Boone was a member of the six-man team appointed to look into Jacobs’ performance at Auburn.

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Psst.  Ya know how close we are to National Signing Day 2014?  Just 39 weeks.  And that’s no time at all in the world of high-stakes college football recruiting, doncha know?

Below you’ll find an updated overview of how the SEC’s football programs are performing on the recruiting trail heading into summer.  As usual, we’ve used Rivals.com’s star ratings as out launch point.  For each star Rivals assigns, we assign a point.  But we also give a point to those players who are currently 0-star prospects according to Rivals (because their tapes have not yet been graded).

First, let’s look at sheer quantity.  The table below shows the total number of “talent points” currently committed to each SEC program.

Next, we’ll take a look at quality.  The table below shows the average points-per-commit for each SEC program.

Read the rest of this entry »

SEC Football

1. Kentucky defensive back Ashely Lowery, injured in a car wreck over the weekend, is out of ICU and in a regular hospital room. Could be leaving soon. “We’re hoping by the end of the week.”

2. Seth Emerson imagines a nine-game SEC schedule for Georgia where the Bulldogs have only five games in Athens.  ”That would be hard for UGA to stomach.”

3. Mike Bianchi on Florida coach Will Muschamp: “Does Gator Nation realize how much in demand Muschamp is – and will be?”

4. Muschamp on Twitter – why do they call it a hashtag?

5. Kevin Sumlin on expectations for his A&M team.  ”This is a team that didn’t play in a BCS game. It’s a good place to start, but it’s not a good place to end.”

6. Dan Mullen on expectations at Mississippi State. “Eight wins is kind of a baseline for us…”

7. No tight end or primary H-back has caught more than 24 passes with Gus Malzahn as coach.

8. Ole Miss depth chart released – only members of top-10 recruiting class to show up are those already enrolled.

9. Former Arkansas quarterback Brandon Mitchell reportedly considering five schools -   South Florida, NC State, UAB, Louisiana Tech and Northwestern State. Some other schools being mentioned.

10. Tennessee defensive back Daniel Gray is transferring.

11. Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham on Vanderbilt: “They compete and they’re very competitive.”

12. With the North Carolina game set for 2015 in Charlotte – here’s a look at South Carolina’s non-conference schedule for the next three seasons.

13. Opening weekend of the 2013 college football season features both South Carolina/North Carolina and Ole Miss/Vanderbilt on ESPN Thursday night.

14. ESPN’s Chris Low ranks the top 20 SEC prospects for the 2014 NFL draft.

SEC Athletic Department Revenues – (our breakdown from yesterday)

15. Alabama’s athletic department has now generated $100 million + in revenue for five straight years.

16. Auburn cracked the top 10 nationally – school record $105.9 million in 2012.

17. Not included in the numbers for Ole Miss - $11 million in contributions held at the Ole Miss Athletics Foundation.  School will change the way it reports next year.

SEC Basketball

18. Father of Trae Golden disputes notion of academic problems at Tennessee for his son – calls reports “totally inaccurate.”

19. Incoming freshman Darius Thompson expected to get first crack at replacing Golden.  Coach Cuonzo Martin:  ”We feel great about him.” Jordan McRae invited to Kevin Durant Skills Academy.

20. Making the case for a practice facility at Arkansas.

21. Georgia assistant coach Kwanza Johnson still weighing possible move to TCU.

22. Missouri will play in the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational in November.

Extras

23. NCAA Study: Gambling among men who play Division I sports fell from 58 percent to 50 percent from 2008 to 2012.

24. Claim: The players in those college football video games?  Oh, they’re real (and spectacular).

25. Does Tim Tebow have a future as a baseball player?

SEC Football

1. Linebacker Tre’ Williams says he is headed to Auburn. He made the announcement just moments ago. Along with Auburn, Williams had strongly considered Alabama.  His other finalists were Florida and Ole Miss.  The Mobile, Alabama prospect is considered one of the nation’s top inside linebacker prospects and had taken multiple visits to both Auburn and Alabama.

2. Four-star defensive back  Jamoral Graham has committed to Mississippi State.  Here’s how Newton County (MS) coach Jackie Williamson described it.  “I think he came to the realization that he was comfortable at Mississippi State. He felt really comfortable with (safeties coach) Tony Hughes and felt like he was a guy that he could play for.” Graham is Mississippi State’s second verbal commitment in the class of 2014.

3. Alabama coach Nick Saban thinks so highly of Calera, Alabama prospect Ronnie Clark, he called him from the NFL draft.  Projected to play free safety and quarterback this fall, Clark is expected to choose between Alabama and Auburn but he’s drawing attention from programs and coaches all over the country, including Vanderbilt coach James Franklin.  ”Coach Franklin is a good guy,” Clark said. “Real good guy. I believe they are going to turn the program around at Vanderbilt.”

4. Auburn’s top five defensive line recruiting targets include Da’Shawn Hand.  The Virginia lineman visited Auburn last weekend.

5. Razorbacks expected to get visit from top-1oo prospect  - safety Steven Parker from Oklahoma.

6. Linebacker Sharieff Rhaheed is an LSU commitment.  Arkansas linebackers coach Randy Shannon visited his school on Monday.

7. Broadarius Hamm is a 6-foot-3, 290-pound defensive lineman from Georgia and wears a size 18 shoe.  He’s 15 years old and is reportedly drawing interest from the home-state Bulldogs.

SEC Basketball

8. Top prospect Andrew Wiggins could reportedly make his decision soon. Kentucky is one of four schools still in the mix for the Huntington Prep star. Louisville is not one of the four schools Wiggins is weighing, but it’s the one his host mom at Huntington Prep prefers. “If it was my choice, I’d say he should go to Louisville...I love Coach Pitino’s program.”

9. 2014 prospect Trey Lyles. “I have six top schools: UCLA, Butler, Florida, Kentucky, Duke and Louisville and all of those schools are ones that I’m really looking at.”

10. The final scholarship at Ole Miss will go to Jerron Martin.  The Maryland point guard committed after taking an official visit to Ole Miss last weekend. He used the social media network Vine to make the announcement.

11. The New Orleans Times Picayune ranks the top 16 2014 prospects in the state.

As we mentioned earlier today in another post, USA Today has completed a study of Division I athletic departments (public schools with public records), their income, their expenses, and the amount of monetary help they receive in the form of subsidies.  The numbers examined are from 2012, but — as we always mention in regards to these types of pieces — no two schools prepare their books the same way.  Due to the differences in accounting, this is not a pure apples-to-apples comparison.

Still, since USA Today has done the work for all of us — thanks! — we thought we’d show you their findings regarding the SEC’s public schools:

The disparity in numbers between Texas A&M and Missouri — still counting cash from their Big XII days — seems a bit odd, but you can double-check the numbers yourself via the second link above.