(Note: This week’s preview webcast had some technical difficulties, so here are the text answers to our usual weekend preview questions.)


Which team is facing the toughest challenge this week?

Ole Miss is facing a better team in LSU, but I’m going with Tennessee. The Vols are going to Vanderbilt, and I’m not sure if the team has recovered emotionally from the firing of their coach, Phillip Fulmer
           
They were uninspired in their embarrassing loss against Wyoming two weeks ago. UT’s offense, statistically, is one of the five worst in college football. They’re going back to Jonathan Crompton at QB; he was benched as a starter for six games. And they’re going against a Vanderbilt team that is now bowl eligible and should be more relaxed.
           
Vanderbilt’s defense is ranked among the top 40 in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense, as well as interceptions and sacks. Vandy has held four opponents to less than 250 total yards and Tennessee averages only 267.
           
Vandy has beaten Tennessee just once since 1982, but the Commodores are a 3-point favorite. Vanderbilt beat Tennessee in 2005 and missed another win last year when a last-second field goal attempt hit the upright. So Vandy comes in confident against a UT offense that lost its confidence weeks ago. Tennessee’s defense is tied with Florida for fewest touchdowns allowed (13) but UT’s offense has scored the fewest touchdowns (17) in the SEC and this is UT’s lowest scoring team since 1964. Tennessee hopes to win a 13th consecutive game in Nashville.
 


Which team or coach most needs a win this weekend?
           
Sly Croom at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs (3-7) host Arkansas (4-6) which is still hopeful of becoming bowl eligible. I don’t think State will fire Croom after he was named SEC Coach of the Year last year, but State has a new AD and he might not feel as much loyalty to Croom.

On the heels of an 8-win season, the Bulldogs have wins over Southeastern Louisiana, Vanderbilt and MTSU. The offense is horrible, ranking last in the SEC in scoring and 10th in rushing.

If Croom stays, he’ll probably have to fire his good friend, offensive coordinator Woody McCorvey. Croom might balk at that suggestion. Interestingly, State, which won several games by scoring defensive touchdowns last year, is the only SEC team this season without a defensive score.
 


Which team is the most ripe to be upset?

LSU against Ole Miss. This is a highly intense rivalry that LSU has dominated of late, winning six in a row and seven of eight. But four of those games were decided by 3 or fewer points.

Ole Miss is bowl eligible, happy about the direction of the season and might want this game more. LSU has lost 3 games and isn’t happy about this season after winning the SEC and the national title. It’s tough to stay hungry coming off a national title. It’s even harder when your goals for a season are gone.
           
Plus, LSU has had QB issues much of this season. Jarrett Lee has had 7 of his 15 interceptions returned for touchdowns. And the Tigers were lucky to pull out a 40-31 win over Troy after tailing 31-3 with two minutes left in the third quarter.

Rebel QB Jevan Snead is #3 in the SEC in passing efficiency and LSU’s pass defense (206.3 yards per game) ranks 10th in the SEC. On the other hand, Ole Miss’ pass defense is last in the SEC.

And this is a CBS game in Baton Rouge . LSU is 5-6 in its last 11 CBS games at home and has a losing record in day games at Tiger Stadium since 1960. LSU has not lost a November game in regulation since 2002. That could change this Saturday.
 


What are you most interested in seeing this weekend?

Will Tennessee finally play Eric Berry both ways? Coach Phillip Fulmer revealed this week that Berry has had a season-long shoulder injury that kept the star safety from playing offense, but now he’s fine.

Berry has expressed a desire to play offense, but he’s had just one snap all season. Vanderbilt has a talented 2-way player in DJ Moore, who had two touchdown catches and two interceptions against Kentucky.

Moore also returns punts and kickoffs and has five rushing attempts this season. Wouldn’t it be fun to see two of the SEC’s most dynamic athletes going both ways?


 
Do you agree with the top part of The MrSEC.com Power Poll?

1) Alabama
2) Florida
3) Georgia
4) LSU

If Alabama and Florida played, I’d be hard-pressed not to pick Florida. The Gators might be the hottest team in America.

But in a poll, you have to judge all the games, not the most recent games. And because Florida suffered a home loss to Ole Miss and Alabama is unbeaten, I rank the Crimson Tide over the Gators.

It’s Friday and that means it’s time for your weekly wrap of picks, predictions and prognostications.  And here they are…



Geoff Calkins of The Memphis Commercial-Appeal:

Tennessee 17, Vanderbilt 13 (last week he picked the Bye Week over UT)
LSU 28, Ole Miss 23
Mississippi State 17, Arkansas 16



Mike Strange of The Knoxville News Sentinel:

Vanderbilt 17, Tennessee 16
Florida 77, The Citadel 3
Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 16
LSU 35, Ole Miss 20



Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Vanderbilt 17, Tennessee 14
LSU 24, Ole Miss 20
Florida 65, The Citadel 0



Pat Dooley of The Gainesville Sun:

Mississippi State 20, Arkansas 17
Vanderbilt 24, Tennessee 10
LSU 28, Ole Miss 16
Florida 49, The Citadel 10

Here’s the news from Starkville heading into tomorrow’s game with Arkansas:

According to Sylvester Croom, you might see two new freshmen on the field for the Bulldogs tomorrow.  Tailback Wade Bonner is “definitely” in the MSU plans, while quarterback Chris Relf will get in only if “game situations” allow it.

Croom has not liked what he’s seen from this year’s ground attack.  “If anything’s been disappointing to me about the offense, more than anything else this year, has been our lack of an ability to consistently run the football as well as I’d like to.  Nobody practices the run game more than we have.”

Delmon Robinson will return kickoffs tomorrow, rather than Derek Pegues.

The votes are in for our MrSEC.com Power Poll - presented by FootballSpeakers.com.

The voters in the poll are:

David Bazzell, former Arkansas linebacker

Chris Doering, former Florida receiver

Will Overstreet, former Tennessee defensive end

Tyler Watts, former Alabama quarterback

Stan White, former Auburn quarterback

Jimmy Hyams and John Pennington from this very website.



Check out how tight the races are for the best and worst slot in the conference.  One vote could flip-flop Alabama and Florida at the top… and Tennessee and Mississippi State continue to slug it out for “absolute worst” status.

Here’s the full poll (complete with the number of total votes in parenthesis…the lower the total, the better the tally):

1.  Alabama (10)
2.  Florida (11)
3.  Georgia (21)
4.  LSU (29)
5.  South Carolina (40)
6.  Ole Miss (41)
7.  Vanderbilt (45)
8.  Kentucky (55)
9.  Arkansas (64)
10.  Auburn (70)
11t.  Mississippi State (80)
11t.  Tennessee (80)

Alabama’s Nick Saban has been called a dictator and a devil.
           
Both are accurate. He has total control over his program and he’s a devil of a coach - and that’s a compliment.
           
Those are two reasons his team is 10-0 and ranked No. 1 in the nation.
           
LSU coach Les Miles allegedly called Saban the devil, although Miles denies saying that. Miles surely has been frustrated by so many people saying he’s won with Saban’s talent. He’ll be even more frustrated when Saban starts stealing recruits out of the Bayou State.
           
Saban is not all that popular as a coach. Maybe it’s his ability to recruit. Maybe it’s his $4 million salary. Maybe it’s his fast lane to success. He’s raising the bar for his colleagues, which can’t help his popularity.
           
When Florida coach Steve Spurrier was asked why, in four years, he hasn’t had nearly the success Saban is having in his second year at Alabama, Spurrier smirked: “Poor coaching, I guess.”
           
Saban has upped the time line for rebuilding a program. He inherited a team with mediocre talent and has them challenging for the national championship in Year Two.
           
He’s having what Georgia coach Mark Richt would call one of those “magical” second seasons.
           
Richt had one, leading Georgia to a 13-1 record and an SEC championship in his second season.
           
Meyer won the national title in his second season at Florida and went undefeated in his second year at Utah.
           
Gene Stallings went 11-1 in his second year at Alabama. Dennis Franchione won 10 games in his second year at the Capstone.
           
Ken Hatfield won 10 games in his second year at Arkansas.
           
Terry Bowden won his first 20 games at Auburn and Tommy Tuberville and Pat Dye won nine in their second season on the Plains.
           
Spurrier won 10 games and the SEC title his second year at Florida.
           
At LSU, Saban won the SEC in his second season and Les Miles won 11 games and the Sugar Bowl in his second season.
           
Lou Holtz went from 0-11 to 8-4 at South Carolina.
           
There is something special about second seasons for SEC coaches.
           
But nobody has done a more special job than Saban. Miles inherited more talent at LSU. And Meyer inherited much more talent at Florida.
           
As one Alabama fan told me: “I knew he was good, but I had no idea he was this good.”
           
Just one more reason for Saban’s coaching colleagues to dislike him.
             


LSU’s Season Not A Surprise            
           
It should come as no surprise that LSU has struggled to a 7-3 record and was unable to repeat as West Division champions.
           
That’s the norm, rather than the exception, for defending national champions.
           
Not since Nebraska in 1994-95 have we seen a team repeat as #1. And in the SEC, five of the last six national championships lost at least three games the next season.
           
Alabama won the national championship in 1992 but went 9-3-1 the next season and was forced to forfeit every win but one due to playing an ineligible player.          
           
Florida went 10-2 and finished second in the East after winning the title in 1996.
           
Tennessee went 9-3 and failed to win the East after taking the 1998 crown.
           
LSU won it all in 2003, then went 9-3 the next season.
           
Florida was the national champ in 2006, then went 9-4 with a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback.
           
It’s worth noting that Florida in 1997 and Tennessee in 1999 finished in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll. The other three were ranked in the top 20 and this year’s LSU team won’t crack the top 10.
           
Meyer has a good idea why last year’s Gators lost three SEC games and fell to Michigan in the Capital One Bowl.
           
“We had some entitlement issues with guys who had no impact on the national championship,” Meyer said. “We had a lot of confusion about work ethic and accountability.”
           
A lack of both proved harmful to Florida ’s efforts to repeat.
           
“I’m glad that issued has been cleared up,” Meyer said.
           
In essence, Florida wasn’t as hungry in 2007 as it was in 2006. That’s natural. A coach might not like it, but that’s human nature.
           
It’s hard to tell how much better LSU would be with deposed quarterback Ryan Perrilloux. He might have been the difference against a Georgia or an Alabama.
           
Then again, LSU might not have been as hungry.
           
Still, LSU could win more games this season than Saban did after his 2003 title.
           
That would at least give Les Miles one feather in his cap against Saban.
 


Georgia Defense Hard To Defend
 
A team many picked to finish #1 is #10 in the SEC in scoring defense. Georgia has allowed 23.8 points per game, with Alabama (41 points), LSU (38), Kentucky (38) and Florida (49) jacking up those numbers.
           
Georgia finished SEC play 6-2 but outscored opponents 215-214. The 214 points is the most allowed in SEC play although Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas could surpass that total. Kentucky (210) has one SEC game left, LSU (192) two and Arkansas (187) two.
           
Sometimes scoring defense can be misleading. For example, LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee has thrown seven interceptions that have been returned for touchdowns. Special teams scores can also skew actual numbers.
           
Perhaps a better barometer of defense is total yards allowed. Georgia ranks sixth in the SEC and 24th in the nation. No SEC team has allowed more touchdowns and the average yards per play against the Bulldogs is 5.0 — tied for eighth in the SEC.
           
By any standard, Georgia’s defense has been disappointing. But the Dawgs still have a chance to match last season’s 11-2 record. Last year’s team finished No. 2 in the nation. This year’s team won’t crack the top six.
           


Extra Points
           
Kentucky went from #1 in the nation in scoring defense to #36 in four weeks. The banged up Wildcats surrendered 63 to Florida, 42 to Georgia and 31 to Vanderbilt
           
South Carolina went from #1 in the SEC in total defense to #4 after giving up 520 yards to Florida.
           
LSU’s 37 points in the last 16.5 minutes against Troy was more than the Tigers had scored in six games.

While new clock rules have cut the average number of plays in an SEC game to about 135, LSU (80 snaps) and Troy (89) combined for 169 in a game that lasted 3 hours, 48 minutes and was not televised. The teams combined for 113 pass attempts and 58 incompletions.
          
Auburn (107), Tennessee (115) and Mississippi State (116) rank among the 12 lowest scoring teams in the nation. Six SEC teams rank 72 or lower. Only Florida is among the top 25.
           
South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt rank no higher than 96 in the nation in total offense. No SEC team ranks among the top 20.
           
Six SEC teams average more than 150 rushing yards per game and all are bowl eligible. Kentucky (eighth) and South Carolina (12th) are the two exceptions.
           
Four SEC teams rank in the top 10 in total defense and 11 rank among the top 41.
           
Only two SEC teams rank among the top 55 in pass offense. Seven SEC teams average less than 180 passing yards per game and rank no higher than 94th.
           
SEC teams have returned nine punts for touchdowns and five kickoffs for touchdowns.
            

Here are some tidbits and hot items from across the SEC landscape on this Thursday morning:

2008 has been The Year of The Interception in the Southeastern Conference.  There were 17 picks returned for touchdowns all last season by SEC teams (that includes bowl games).  Already, there have been 19 by SEC defensive backs. 

So, does that tell you that the SEC’s DBs are top notch?  Or does it have more to do with some ratty quarterback play in the league this year?  In my view, the corners and safeties are good, but I can’t ever remember a worse year for QBs in the SEC.  I’ll put it on bad signal-callers.



We mentioned this on the site last week, but here’s some more detail on how this year’s troubled economy might wipe out a few of the bowls from December’s overcrowded line-up in the future.



And Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has some questions heading into this weekend’s action:

1)  Did anyone see the Will Muschamp thing coming at Texas?  (Muschamp, of course, played at Georgia and has coached at both Auburn and LSU.)

2)  What is the over/under on points for Florida versus The Citadel.

3)  Does Ole Miss have a shot at LSU?  (Absolutely.  Did anyone see LSU’s game with Troy last week?)

There’s only one thing folks in Starkville are talking about today and that’s motivation.

This time last year, MSU was in the running for a bowl game, trying to put the finishing touches on an eight-win season.  But with a losing record guaranteed, a bowl bid out of the question, the 2008 squad is having to look for other motivations.

“It’s going to be real important that we finish strong here and continue to prepare well,” said Sylvester Croom.  “With two games left, two big ballgames, conference opponents, people in the SEC West that we play every other year.  It’s real important that we finish strong, and I know our kids will do that.”

Just wanted to catch you up on some random notes/observations columns from around the South today.  Here are a few that kept my attention:

Mark McCarter of The Huntsville Times finds that the Big 12 and the SEC have a lot in common on and off the field.

Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that the BCS is creating strange bedfellows in terms of who’ll be pulling for who in the weeks ahead.  And don’t rule out the “Doomsday” scenario for the BCS.

A Big 12 tie-breaker could ultimately decide who Bama/Florida will play in a potential BCS title game, and, therefore the national championship itself.

College football’s decision to put the BCS bowls on ESPN (cable) and not on an over-the-air network starting in 2011 could leave millions of fans out in the cold when it comes to dialing up the season’s biggest games.

Here are five things that SEC fans should be keeping an eye on in the weeks ahead.

The race for bowl games is heating up around the league… and there’s still no telling where most of the SEC’s teams will wind up.  But here are all the possibilities.

Here’s the buzz from Starkville this Wednesday morning:

Sylvester Croom’s players are hearing from friends, students and professors that their coach needs to go.  Croom has told them to ignore the criticisms.  He also hinted that he’s going to be making some changes… presumably his coaching staff.  Presumably on the offensive side of the ball.  Presumably.

With a bowl bid and winning record now out of the question, linebacker Dominic Douglas was asked what he was playing for in the final two games of his career.  “A win, of course.  That’s the main thing — a win.  But beyond that, we are playing for pride and respect, for ourselves and our coach.”

Douglas and safety Derek Pegues missed practice yesterday but both are expected to play against Arkansas on Saturday.  Long-snapper Aaron Feld, who took a football to the eye while special teamers were playing catch last week, is also expected to be back.

Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution doesn’t think the President of the United States or anyone else can bring about a college football playoff.

With ESPN about to grab the BCS bowls away from Fox Sports, television contracts alone will push a potential playoff system past the 2013 season.  That’s a long way off… and most conference commissioners and presidents are still against even a plus-one format, much less an eight-team playoff.

I like Barack Obama’s idea for a playoff, though I’d go with four teams rather than eight.  But from watching his grin at the end of his playoff statement to “60 Minutes” (”I’m gonna throw my weight around”), I really don’t think he’s going to try to push anything like this.

The guy’s a football fan and like most of us, he wants to see a champion crowned on the field.

But it’s not going to happen.  Regardless of what you, me, the new President or Tony Barnhart might want.

And that will continue to suck.  But hey, at least we’ve got 34 bowls and too few winning teams to fill them.  That’s still fun, isn’t it?

It’s been a long, disappointing season in Starkville, but Dog fans are finally getting some good news this morning:

Senior linebacker Jamar Chaney, who was lost for the season to a leg injury in the season opener, plans to return next year and is expected to be granted a medical hardship waiver, giving him one more year of eligibility.

This notes column reveals that former starting quarterback Wesley Carroll is hoping to get a few more snaps in State’s final two games… and that Sylvester Croom is making some changes to his offensive line.

MSU will be trying to snap a nine-game losing streak to Arkansas when the two teams meet at Scott Field this weekend.

We’ll start the day with the latest from the SEC’s official site:

Here’s the full list of the SEC’s Players Of The Week, which includes Florida’s Percy Harvin and Vandy’s DJ Moore taking home the offensive and defensive awards.

Yes, but who won the O-lineman, D-lineman, special teams, and freshman honors?  Well, you’ll just have to click the above link, won’t you?

As for next week’s television schedule, here she is:


Friday, November 28th

Mississippi State at Ole Miss - 12:30pm EST, Raycom

LSU at Arkansas - 2:30pm EST, CBS

As you might have noticed, this will present a major headache for local television affiliates that are both CBS stations and Raycom affiliates.


Saturday, November 29th

Georgia Tech at Georgia - 12:00pm EST, CBS

South Carolina at Clemson - 12:00pm or 3:30pm EST, ABC or ESPN family or Raycom

Auburn at Alabama - 3:30pm EST, CBS

Kentucky at Tennessee - 6:30pm EST / ESPN2

Vanderbilt at Wake Forest - 7:00pm EST / ESPNU

Florida at Florida State - 3:30pm or 7:45pm or 8:00pm EST, ABC or ESPN family

Crucial Penalty Doesn’t Cost Vandy

During the middle of the fourth quarter, Vanderbilt was nursing a 14-point lead at Kentucky when quarterback Chris Nickson ripped through the secondary for more than 30 yards.
           
It would be an historic run. It would put Vandy in field goal range for a game-clinching score. It would mark the first time since 1982 the Commodores would be bowl eligible. It would snap a streak of 17 consecutive losses in bowl-eligible games.
           
Alas, Vandy was called for holding on Nickson’s brilliant run, wiping out the first down, the field position, the probable score and leaving in doubt the outcome.
           
Wasn’t that just typical Vanderbilt - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and causing Bobby Johnson to anguish once again about being so close, but no cigar.
           
Kentucky quickly scored to cut the margin to seven points, then got the ball back and was driving inside the Vandy 30 when cornerback DJ Moore made a terrific interception on a fourth-down slant play with two minutes left.
           
Vanderbilt’s Johnson got a Gatorade shower.
           
Vanderbilt’s program got a gorilla off its back.
           
There is still a chance Vanderbilt won’t get a bowl bid. The SEC has nine bowl tie-ins. Eight SEC teams are now bowl eligible. Auburn has to beat Alabama to become bowl eligible and Arkansas must beat Mississippi State and LSU to become bowl eligible. If either fails, Vandy is in. And if Florida and Alabama get BCS bowl berths, Vandy is in.
           
Vanderbilt wouldn’t have beaten Kentucky if Johnson hadn’t thrown caution to the wind and played Moore all over the field. The senior had never caught a pass at Vanderbilt, yet caught two for touchdowns in the first quarter. He also intercepted two passes and returned punts.
           
Moore’s yeoman effort is one reason Vandy will be practicing during the Christmas holidays for the first time in 26 years.
           
Vandy (4-3) is also a win over Tennessee away from tying the school record for most SEC wins in a season, set in 1935.
             


Gators Ring Up 50 Points On Former Coach
 
CBS analyst Gary Danielson said during the Florida-South Carolina game that Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier wouldn’t respect Urban Meyer if Meyer had a chance to hang 50 on USC but didn’t.
           
Spurrier certainly did it as Florida’s coach. He liked to run it up and rub it in.
           
Spurrier got a taste of his medicine at The Swamp, as Meyer put 56 on the #1 defense in the SEC. Of course, not all 56 came against USC’s defense. The Gators returned an interception for a touchdown, recovered a lateral on a kickoff at the USC one-foot line, and got 10 more points off special teams play or USC turnovers.
           
Florida made a case for being the nation’s best team, even though the Gators have one loss. Since falling to Ole Miss, Florida has averaged over 50 points against the next six opponents — three of them ranked. In a 19-quarter stretch, the offense had scored a touchdown on 34 of 54 possessions (discounting two at the end of the half). That’s remarkable efficiency.
           
And Florida’s much improved defense has forced more punts (33) than points allowed (26) in the first half. The Gators have outscored opponents 227-26 in the first two quarters and they’ve scored eight non-offensive touchdowns.
           
No wonder Spurrier thinks these Gators are better than the 2006 version, which needed to block a late field goal to hang on against the Gamecocks.
           
By the way, Spurrier has a winning record against every SEC team except his alma mater. He’s 1-3 against the Gators.
 


Tebow In Running For Heisman
 
Winning the Heisman Trophy has become a numbers game.
           
You’ve got to be on the #1 team, or be the #1 rusher or the #1 passer or the first guy to have 20 touchdown passes and 20 touchdown rushes in the same season - like Florida ’s Tim Tebow last year.
           
Tebow accounted for 55 touchdowns last season. He won’t account for that many this year. He might not get to 40. But he’s just as good a quarterback this season as last, if not better.
           
Because he’s such a running threat, he makes Florida run game go. And he’s become a better pocket passer, having completed right at 70 percent of his throws over the last six games.
           
Tebow will be on my Heisman ballot again this year, but I’m not sure I’ll put him first again.
           
While Tebow has had a terrific season, Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell has been off the charts. He has completed 71.7 percent of his passes for 4,077 yards and 36 touchdowns with just five interceptions for his second-ranked team (9-0). Harrell has been at his best against three ranked teams the Red Raiders defeated - Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma State.
           
How Harrell plays against Oklahoma this Saturday could define whether he wins the Heisman.
           
Some would argue that Harrell faces softer defenses in the Big 12 than Tebow faces in the SEC.
           
There may be some truth to that, but folks, SEC defenses aren’t all that good this year. Their national defensive numbers are a product of poor SEC offenses and poor non-conference opponents. And look at how West Virginia, Georgia Tech, Tulsa, Texas and Troy sliced up some SEC defenses.
           
By the way, it was interesting to hear CBS report that Tebow spent time with Spurrier at the Heisman Trophy ceremonies and the Dave O’Brien banquet and said he could never play for Spurrier. No explanation was given.
      

               
Extra Points

Florida’s Percy Harvin has scored a touchdown in 12 consecutive games, one shy of the active streak of 13 held by Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree.

LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee has throw seven interceptions this season that have been returned for a touchdown. If that’s not a national record, it’s got to be close.

Kentucky true freshman quarterback Randall Cobb did about all he could against Vanderbilt, passing for 144 yards, rushing for 71 and returning punts. He’s one of the top three freshmen in the SEC this season.

Spurrier said Kenny McKinley is one of the best receivers he’s ever coached, putting him up there with Reidel Anthony, Jacquez Green, Ike Hilliard, Chris Doering and Clarkston Hines. McKinley is USC’s all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and consecutive games with a catch.

How about this one: Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky are bowl eligible but Tennessee and Auburn are not.  
 
 
 
My MrSEC.com Power Poll Ballot

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. South Carolina
6. Ole Miss
7. Vanderbilt
8. Kentucky
9. Auburn
10. Arkansas
11. Tennessee
12. Miss State

Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution puts forth his weekly observations on the SEC’s latest action:

1)  With all due respect to Alabama and Texas Tech, Florida is definitely the best team in the country.

2)  The Alabama-Florida match-up in Atlanta is the toughest SEC Championship Game ticket ever.

3)  Unless Georgia has an attitude adjustment, it will lose to Georgia Tech.

4)  “Blackout” games are probably done for good after Georgia and Florida State have been beaten in black unis this year. 

Why the Hell did FSU have the word “UNCONQUERED” written on their pant leg, by the way?  That’s just stupid. 

And I certainly hope Nike doesn’t start pimping that crap to all the other schools in the country… though I know that they will. 

Click the headline for a better view of this silliness.

Things are going from bad to worse in Starkville it seems:

Defensive tackle Jessie Bowman tore a quad tendon late in the Bulldogs 32-7 loss to Alabama and is probably lost for the season.

Safety Derek Pegues is expected to recover from a concussion in time to play next Saturday.

Remember us saying last week that MSU had better improve their special teams if they wanted to upset Alabama?  Well, if 16 points lost by the punt coverage teams didn’t make it clear enough, perhaps the fact that Sylvester Croom chewed out special teams coach Reed Stringer on the sidelines will be proof enough to let you know that, no, State’s special teams did not improve against the Tide.

Motley Croom will face Arkansas on Saturday in a battle between the West’s two worst teams.  Here’s a quick preview of what the Hogs will bring into Starkville.

Remember when Alabama opened the season as an underdog to Clemson? How long ago does that seem? The number one ranked and undefeated Tide need two victories to run the table on a perfect regular season.  What’s standing between them and perfection are Mississippi State and rival Auburn, two schools that have combined for two less victories on the season than Alabama.

First up, the Bulldogs today in Tuscaloosa.  MSU coach Sylvester Croom returns to where he played football in the 1970’s.

“They got a beautiful stadium,” he said. “The stadium’s a lot different (from the 1970s). I still haven’t seen it all and I probably won’t. We go in the back way, and that’s where we’re going to go in and that’s the way I’m coming out.

”For our players and for all of us, when you get the chance to play the No. 1 team, in the spotlight and a conference opponent, especially one of your rivals, it’s exciting. It is truly exciting to be in that spotlight.”

“We are at about 19,000 feet,” Tide coach Nick Saban said. “The mountain is at 26,000 feet, and the air is changing a little bit. The air is a little rarer.”

They should make it a few more feet up the mountain today.  A line that opened at 20 1/2 now has Alabama favored by 22 points.

We know you want the picks and predictions, forecasts and prognostications… and here they are:



Geoff Calkins of The Memphis Commercial-Appeal:

Alabama 30, Mississippi State 6
Ole Miss 35, La-Monroe 9
Kentucky 23, Vanderbilt 10
Bye 13, Tennessee 7



Pat Dooley of The Gainesville Sun:

Florida 42, South Carolina 20
Georgia 31, Auburn 13
Kentucky 28, Vanderbilt 17
Alabama 30, Mississippi State 13



Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Georgia 24, Auburn 7
Florida 28, South Carolina 21
Alabama 27, Mississippi State 14
Kentucky 24, Vanderbilt 17



Mike Strange of The Knoxville News Sentinel:

Alabama 35, Mississippi State 7
Georgia 24, Auburn 10
Florida 31, South Carolina 6
Kentucky 28, Vanderbilt 17
Ole Miss 30, La-Monroe 13
LSU 38, Troy 20

Hey, have you heard that MSU actually beat top-ranked Alabama back in…

Yeah, we’re tired of that story, too.  Here’s what’s up in Starkville today:

If there’s one huge key for the Bulldogs in their match-up with Alabama tomorrow it’s the play of their defensive line.  If Bama starts running the ball against State, it’ll be curtains for Sylvester Croom’s team.

Kyle Veazey of The Jackson Clarion-Ledger solicited information on Alabama’s vulnerabilities from a pair of Tide beatwriters this week.  Here’s his Q&A with Tim Gayle of The Montgomery Advertiser… and his Q&A with Ian Rappaport of The Birmingham News.

State will also need better play on special teams to pull off a monster upset of Alabama.

Here’s your preview of SEC action this weekend from myself and our Ace Reporter, Jimmy Hyams.

Step into The MrSEC Lounge to find out which team most needs a win, which team is most ripe for an upset and which team deserves to be ranked #1 in the SEC.

As usual, we start with Tennessee and their open head coach position:

You know who isn’t taking Butch Davis’ “I’m not interested” proclamation seriously?  Caulton Tudor of The Raleigh News and Observer who writes that if someone throws big cash ($3 million plus) at Davis it will be difficult for North Carolina to match.  Apparently they’re a pretty big basketball school.

Meet the latest hot name in Knoxville — Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly (at left).  John Adams of The Knoxville News Sentinel compares Kelly to UT hoops coach Bruce Pearl… and right or wrong that will probably clinch it for most Vol fans: “Hire him!”

Meanwhile, former Raiders coach Lane Kiffin has interviewed with Clemson.  Kiffin is believed to be on Tennessee’s list, too.  There’s another potential crossover in Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.  It’s believed that Clemson is farther ahead in their coaching search than Tennessee and they should be, they started earlier.  But the fact that UT saw a head-to-head competition with Clemson coming surely had something to do with their decision to go ahead and announce Fulmer’s departure mid-season.



With a lack of championships this decade, a less than full stadium and a possible (I can’t believe I’m writing this) 3-9 season staring them in the face, there should be no doubt that Tennessee HAD to begin the search for a new coach.

But the process will most assuredly be slower than fans would like and will also probably have more bumps than fans would like.  (Remember what Alabama had to go through before landing Nick Saban.)

So the question is this: do the folks at Auburn and Mississippi State really want to go through this right now?  Tommy Tuberville, literally, is having ONE bad year.  (And yes, we realize his troubles are more about behind-the-scenes relationships than wins and losses, but…)  Do Auburn fans really want to jump into the pool with few candidates in early December?  When Clemson and Tennessee will probably be finishing off their searches and taking two candidates off the Auburn board?

Ditto for Mississippi State fans wanting to dismiss Sylvester Croom.  Wouldn’t they rather wait one year, be able to make a mid-season move if necessary, and then sift through what might be a deeper list of coaching candidates next Fall?



As for the on-the-field news, the Vols got a much needed win last night on Thursday Night Football.  New quarterback BJ Coleman threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns.  He found little used receivers Ahmad Paige and Tyler Maples a combined nine catches.  What?  It was a 37-21 win in a JV game over Hargrave Military Academy?

Nevermind.  (Though there’s no reason to not give these guys a shot at Vandy next weekend.)

Who’s The Better Coach: Spurrier Or Meyer?

When Florida hosts South Carolina this Saturday, the Gators will be positioning for a shot at a national championship. The Gamecocks will be positioning for a shot at a better bowl game.
           
That’s the difference in the two programs.
           
Florida one won four consecutive SEC Championships in the 1990s.
           
South Carolina has won four bowl games since 1892.
           
When you analyze these teams today, you might ask: Who has the better coach? Is it Urban Meyer? Or Steve Spurrier?
           
No doubt, Meyer has several built-in advantages, not the least of which he has one of the elite coaching jobs in the country. The Meyer resume: 17-6 at Bowling Green, 12-0 and a BCS bowl win at Utah, a national championship at Florida.
           
The Spurrier resume: six SEC Championships but none since 2000, an ACC title at Duke, a school-record 28 wins in his first four years at South Carolina .
           
What Meyer did at Utah matches what Spurrier did at Duke. Meyer has not sustained success at a school the way Spurrier did at Florida, but Meyer might be on his way at Florida.
           
I judge a coach based more on what he did in recent years, not the past 20. For example, Bobby Bowden isn’t as good a coach now as he was 10 years ago. Neither is Joe Paterno. And neither is Spurrier.
           
Some say this is one of Spurrier’s best coaching jobs. I disagree. South Carolina has won seven games because of its defense, not Spurrier’s offense. It was Spurrier who messed up the offense by starting Tommy Beecher, then Chris Smelley, then Stephen Garcia.
           
Meyer has adjusted well to the rigors of the SEC. He has tweaked his offense. He has conquered his rivals. He has motivated his players. He can beat you with an explosive offense or skilled special teams. And he’s in position to challenge for a second national title in three years.
           
Because of the difference in programs, I’d say winning eight games at South Carolina rivals winning the SEC at Florida. But winning the SEC is still tougher.
           
Meyer is in position to do that now. And now, he’s the better coach.
 


Is Saban Worth $4 Million Per Year?

Has Alabama coach Nick Saban been worth his $4 million average salary over eight years?
           
It’s hard to justify salaries. Is Alex Rodriguez worth $25 million to the New York Yankees? Is Tom Brady worth $18 million to the New England Patriots? Is Kobe Bryant worthy of a $116 million contract?
           
If those players bring in that much revenue to their team, the answer is yes. But how do you determine that revenue boost?
           
At Alabama, it’s simpler. You look at ticket revenues, donations, souvenir and concession sales. You might also look at national publicity, a #1 ranking and possible BCS bowl revenue.
           
Maybe even bragging rights. How do you put a price tag on bragging rights? How do you measure the worth of beating Clemson and Georgia and LSU? And maybe Auburn for the first time in seven years?
           
Without knowing exactly what the additional revenues are at Alabama since Saban took over, my answer to the Saban question is a resounding “yes.”
           
To take a team with mediocre talent in his first season and be 10-0 and #1 in his second season is a remarkable coaching job - probably the best in the nation. Certainly the best in the SEC.
           
If Saban wins a national title at a second SEC school that he has had to rebuild, it would be hard to argue that there’s a better coach in the country than Nick Saban.
 


Was The Loss To Alabama The Beginning Of The End For Miles?
 
In his first two years at LSU, Les Miles won a national championship, an SEC title and 34 games - not to mention three bowl games in decisive fashion.
           
He deserves credit for what he achieved, even if he did so with Saban’s talent.
           
This season, Miles has most of his recruits. He also has three losses. He’s played three teams currently ranked in the top 20 and didn’t beat any of them. Florida and Georgia outplayed the Tigers, but Miles let one get away against Alabama.
           
Was the Alabama defeat the beginning of the end for Miles?
            
First off, until 2000, LSU had just 10-win seasons in history. LSU has a strong tradition, but it doesn’t match Alabama’s.
           
Secondly, it’s unreasonable to expect Miles or any LSU coach - Saban included - to average over 11 wins a year. Saban averaged 10 in his last four years at LSU
            
Miles has recruited well at LSU. He fell victim this season to being caught without a quarterback after the dismissal of Ryan Perrilloux.
           
LSU will probably go 9-3 prior to playing in a bowl. If LSU wins the bowl, it would mark Miles’ fourth straight season with 10 wins. Miles happens to be the only LSU coach in history to win 10 in back-to-back seasons.
           
Miles’ second three seasons won’t be nearly as successful as his first three. He’ll go from 34 wins to about 28. In the process, he will be criticized for going on fourth down, for throwing a pass with one second left on the clock, for wearing his hat too high on his head.
           
That’s what happens when you win too many games too soon - with someone else’s talent.
           
Miles can have several more 10-win seasons at LSU, but he better not lose three or four in a row to Saban or the seat in Baton Rouge will be hotter than Tabasco sauce.
 


Will Vanderbilt Become Bowl Eligible?
 
The pressure is building at Vanderbilt.
           
After a 5-0 start, the Commodores would surely make it to a bowl game for the first time since 1982.  Wouldn’t they?
           
Not so fast, my friend.
           
A close loss at Mississippi State and a stunning loss to Duke have created doubts. Now 5-4, Vandy has just three more chances to become bowl eligible: at Kentucky, Tennessee and at Wake Forest .
           
In the past 12 years, Vanderbilt has not won two games in a season in the month of November.
           
Why?
           
“Probably the people we play,” was the short answer from coach Bobby Johnson.
           
Vanderbilt and Kentucky are about even in talent. The x-factor for the Wildcats is true freshman quarterback Randall Cobb, who had 187 total yards against Georgia and scored three touchdowns in a 42-38 loss.
           
Johnson is impressed by Cobb, who has played receiver, punt returner and quarterback for the Wildcats.
           
“It looks like he’s played quarterback the last three years,” Johnson said. “He looks real comfortable.”
           
Cobb has shown an ability to pass, scramble and run the option. He might be the main man in the way of Vanderbilt becoming bowl eligible.
 


Extra Points

Spurrier said his defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson gets a bonus if the Gamecocks finish in the top six in the SEC in total defense. The Gamecocks are ranked No. 1 going into the Florida game.

The Disappointment Bowl this weekend matches Georgia (8-2) against Auburn (5-5).

Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville might have to beat Georgia or Alabama to save his job, although a $6 million buyout to be paid over 366 days might be a tough pill for the Tigers to swallow.

Meyer said he does extensive background checks on recruits before signing them and he’s rejected some for misbehaving: “I’m not saying I’m getting too old for that but I’m not going to put up with it anymore.”
   

Did you know that Vanderbilt has lost 17 consecutive games in which they were trying to attain bowl eligibility?

Did you know Vandy hasn’t won two games in the month of November in 12 years?

Travis Haney of The Charleston Post and Courier has more on Vanderbilt, plus why he thinks Tommy Tuberville is getting a raw deal at Auburn.



Meanwhile, Tony Barnhart of the AJC asks four questions regarding the upcoming slate of SEC games:

1)  Can Steve Spurrier keep South Carolina close?

2)  Does Auburn have one good game in them?

3)  Will Alabama come out flat against Mississippi State?

4)  Can Vanderbilt FINALLY become bowl eligible?  (See the stats above and the answer looks to be “no.”)

You bet they are.

For one, there may not be enough 6-win teams to fill the (ridiculous) 68 bowl slots available.

And two, if the stadiums are half empty in Boise, Shreveport and Detroit in a normal economy, how are things going to shape up in a terrible economy?

“The fact we’re even talking about that shows the system is flawed and we have to correct it.  It’s not a healthy business model for us,” said Scott Ramsey, executive director of the Music City Bowl and past president of the Football Bowls Association.

Our Ace Reporter will be chiming in on this in the days ahead, but let me be the first to predict a decrease in the number of bowls for 2009.

Coaching hot seat talk is making headlines in Starkville this morning:

Incoming MSU president Mark Keenum said yesterday that he has the “utmost respect” for Sylvester Croom.  “Our program has had some tough breaks.  We’re in a very competitive conference.  It was just last year that he was SEC coach of the year.  We still have some big games left this season and some opportunities to end the season on a high note.”

Keenum also told athletic director Greg Byrne, “I want us to be competitive.  I want us to win championships.”

Offensive coordinator Woody McCorvey knows that there’s speculation about his job security.  But he doesn’t have time to worry about.  “It comes with the territory.  When I was a younger coach, things people said would bother me.  Sometimes what people say is cruel.  But now, you kind of get numb to it.”

MSU center JC Brignone is probably getting tired of questions regarding Alabama’s Terrence Cody… who he’ll be lining up across from on Saturday.

The Bulldogs need a big game out of fullback Arnil Stallworth if they’re going to beat the nation’s #1 team.

And, once again, here’s another column tying in to the Dogs’ 6-3 upset of Alabama in 1980.

The votes are in for our MrSEC.com Power Poll - presented by FootballSpeakers.com.

The voters in the poll are:

David Bazzell, former Arkansas linebacker

Chris Doering, former Florida receiver

Will Overstreet, former Tennessee defensive end

Tyler Watts, former Alabama quarterback

Stan White, former Auburn quarterback

Jimmy Hyams and John Pennington from this very website.



A few moves on the bottom half of our poll this week.  Here’s the full poll (complete with the number of total votes in parenthesis…
the lower the total, the better the tally):

1.  Alabama (9)

2.  Florida (12)

3.  Georgia (22)

4.  LSU (30) - lost a vote to South Carolina this week

5.  South Carolina (33)

6.  Kentucky (45) - jumped Ole Miss following their 42-38 loss to Georgia

7.  Ole Miss (48)

8.  Vanderbilt (56)

9.  Arkansas (61)

10.  Auburn (70)

11 tie.  Mississippi State (80)

11 tie.  Tennessee (80) - loss to Wyoming on homecoming dropped the Vols into a last place tie with the Bulldogs

The AJC’s Tony Barnhart, aka Mr. College Football, has five more opinions on the SEC for you… and you can click these pretty red words to read this views in detail:

1)  Tim Tebow deserves a strong look for the Heisman Trophy.

2)  Auburn needs to make a decision on Tommy Tuberville’s future before the Iron Bowl.

3)  Phillip Fulmer would be a good fit at Clemson.

4)  Tommy Tuberville would also be a good fit at Clemson.

5)  Mike Leach is not a good fit at Tennessee.

Some interesting stuff coming out of Starkville today:

Here’s an unusual stat that helps to explain why MSU is 3-6 overall: the Bulldogs have not stopped any of their opponents’ eight fourth down tries this year.  Oh-for-eight.  It’s hard to win if you can’t make a stop at crunch time.

This notes column reveals that their may be some shifts along State’s offensive line on Saturday… and that Sylvester Croom doesn’t often visit his hometown of Tuscaloosa.  “I don’t hang out at a lot of the local places.  It’s home, and yet it’s enemy territory.  I don’t hang out in Oxford, either.”

Defensive end Tim Bailey had a different perspective on Veterans Day yesterday.  Bailey was serving in Iraq in 2004 and 2005.

Tired of hearing about State’s 1980 win over top-ranked Alabama yet?  So are we, but at least this column involves the drunken sportswriters who covered the Bulldogs 6-3 win.

It’s Tuesday, which means it’s time for Chris Low’s weekend assessments over at his ESPN.com blog:

Have a helmet sticker.  You earned it:

1. Rashad Johnson, safety, Alabama

2. Tim Tebow, quarterback, Florida

3. Kenny McKinley, wide receiver, South Carolina

4. Demarcus Cobb, defensive end, Georgia

5. Julio Jones, receiver, Alabama



Mr. Low’s observations from Week 11:

1. Florida and Alabama now control their own destinies in terms of reaching the BCS title game.

2. Florida is destroying people at the moment.

3. Alabama proved they can play from behind.

4. Georgia’s defense is underachieving.

5. Tennessee has thrown in the towel.