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With two weeks to play, the SEC’s bowl picture is as blurry now as it was a month ago.

Florida and Alabama have been dominant and both have run away from the pack.  On the other end of spectrum, Vanderbilt is the only SEC team already eliminated from the bowl picture.

The other nine teams in the league are still jockeying for position.  With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of what each team has left between now and bowl bid time in two weeks:


School
Week 12 Opp.
Week 13 Opp.
SEC Title Game
Best Case Record
Worst Case Record
ALABAMA
Chattanooga
at Auburn
Florida
13-0
10-3
ARKANSAS
Miss. State
at LSU
  8-4
6-6
AUBURN
      8-4
7-5
FLORIDA
FIU
Fla. State
Alabama
13-0
10-3
GEORGIA
Kentucky
at Ga. Tech
  8-4
6-6
KENTUCKY
at Georgia
Tennessee
  8-4
6-6
LSU
at Ole Miss
Arkansas
  10-2
8-4
MISS. STATE
at Arkansas
Ole Miss
  6-6
4-8
OLE MISS
LSU
at Miss. State
  9-3
7-5
S. CAROLINA
  Clemson
  7-5
6-6
TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt
at Kentucky
  7-5
5-7
VANDERBILT
at Tennessee
    3-9
2-10




We’ll dive into the prediction game at this point, but don’t go putting any money on these picks.  My views are likely to change a whole lot come Sunday morning.



BCS Title Game (vs Texas)
ALABAMA, 13-0
Florida got the Tide last year, this year I’ll take Bama to exact revenge.


Sugar Bowl (vs TCU)
FLORIDA, 12-1
But I could see the SEC title game going the other way, too


Capital One Bowl (vs Penn State)
LSU, 9-3
The Capital One committee would love this matchup for attendance and TV purposes


Outback Bowl (vs Wisconsin)
Ole Miss, 8-4
I believe this is a year when the Outback will request a West Division team due to their better record


Cotton Bowl (vs Nebraska)
Tennessee, 7-5
When the Cotton Bowl goes with an East Division team, it’s usually Tennessee


Chick-fil-A Bowl (vs Clemson)
Auburn, 7-5
The Tigers played Clemson in this bowl just two years ago, but this one still seems to make sense from an attendance standpoint


Music City Bowl (vs North Carolina)
South Carolina, 7-5
How can the folks in Nashville pass up a game that was SUPPOSED to start next year’s schedule?


Liberty Bowl (vs East Carolina)
Georgia, 7-5
I think an upset Georgia fanbase will be seen as less likely to travel, thus the Dawgs fall all the way to the Liberty


Independence Bowl (vs Kansas State)
Arkansas, 7-5
It’s unlikely, but an Iowa State-Auburn matchup would be interesting here, wouldn’t it?

(UPDATE — I had a typo on my spreadsheet that has now been corrected… Arkansas is currently 6-4, not 5-7.  Logic was right, record in table was wrong.)

Papajohns.com Bowl (vs West Virginia)
Kentucky, 6-6
At least the Wildcats will go somewhere south of Tennessee this year

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1.  Pat Dooley of The Gainesville Sun makes his weekend predictions here.

(Mr. Dooley takes his usual shots at Lane Kiffin and Georgia as well.)

2.  Charles Hollis of The Birmingham News makes his predictions, too.

3.  Geoff Calkins of The MCA has posted his picks for the weekend.

4.  Tony Barnhart of The AJC has made his prognostications as well.

5.  Finally, there is a chance that UGA VII will be laid to rest at Sanford Stadium in a private ceremony before tomorrow’s Kentucky game.

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1.  Kentucky has only seven more Kentuckians on its roster than Georgians… which makes tomorrow’s game special for a number of Wildcats.

2.  UK’s offensive line will face a big challenge against Georgia’s D-line tomorrow.

3.  To make matters worse, Randall Cobb will be a gametime decision due to a bruised shoulder.

4.  In basketball news, freshman DeMarcus Cousins racked up 27 points and 18 rebounds to lead the Cats past Sam Houston State 102-92.

5.  John Calipari said after the game, “This may be the worst defensive team I’ve had since 1988.”

6.  Coach Cal also said, “I was so made a couple of times my head almost popped off.”  And this… “I love my team, and we have a chance of being good.  But we also have a chance of being bad if we don’t start changing some things.”

7.  This writer believes UK needs more substance to go with their “wow” style.

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Tobias Harris, a consensus Top 10 recruit has signed with Tennesee over Kentucky, Louisville, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Maryland and West Virginia.

The 6-8 power forward attended Big Blue Madness in Lexington last month.  He also made a surprise stop in Knoxville on Tuesday night to watch the Volunteers defeat UNC-Asheville.

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SI.com asked college football fans across the nation to weigh in on a number of topics in a recent survey.  The fans responded.

Not surprisingly, the SEC ranked #1 in terms of the best conference in the land.  The rest of the overall results are interesting — for example, most fans say they follow recruiting either “casually” or “not at all.”

The answers of SEC fans have also been broken down.  Some of those results are as follows:


1.  What is your biggest conference rival? 

23.5% said Alabama, 17.5% said Georgia, and 17.4% said Florida.  On the other end of the spectrum, more fans consider Vanderbilt to be a rival of their team than either Kentucky or South Carolina.


2.  What is your favorite stadium to visit in your team’s conference?

24.8% said Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, followed by Sanford Stadium in Athens, Neyland Stadium in Knoxville and The Swamp.  (Sounds to me like a lot of fans voted for their own home stadium ’cause most folks do NOT want to go to Tiger Stadium or The Swamp.)


3.  Which school has the rudest fans for visitors?

LSU fans got 32.2% of the vote.  Florida was next at just 19.2% followed by Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.


4.  Which school has the most polite fans for visitors?

Vandy fans got the nod at 37.4% followed by Ole Miss, Kentucky and Georgia fans.  (So Dawg fans are both rude AND polite?)

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We’ve still got the Mississippi schools to cover in our team notes, but first, here are some columns and blurbs from across the league:

1.  It’s sad that some Georgia fans turn the UGA campus into a trash dump for each home game.

2.  Travis Haney of The Charleston Post & Courier writes that Tim Tebow isn’t deserving of the Heisman in his weekly weekend preview column.

3.  It says a lot about the depth of the SEC that the league should be able to fill all 10 of its bowl slots this year.

4.  According to this SEC notes column, this year marks the first time Florida has logged a perfect conference record since their 1996 national championship season.

5.  This by-the-numbers SEC column reveals that Urban Meyer has passed Tennessee’s Robert Neyland as the leader in all-time conference winning percentage (for coaches with more than five years experience).  Meyer has won 80% of his league games… Neyland won 78.7%.

I guess it’s safe to say his spread offense has worked, no?

6.  The Music City Bowl thinks it will likely land either Georgia, Auburn or Tennessee from the SEC and either Miami, Florida State or North Carolina from the ACC.

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Just a quick note for a few of you who are getting way too bent out of shape over the statistics we post on this site.

I like to post numbers you might not find elsewhere.  We use the Yards Per Pass Attempt stat a lot because many math-geek football fans believe it’s a good gauge of an offense’s overall success.

We use our own offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to show you which SEC schools are the best at scoring points and the worst at allowing points.  Yards don’t go on the scoreboard, points do… which is why we like these stats.

We track the number of plays an offense typically runs between turnovers.  Flip it and we use the same technique to show you which defenses are the best at forcing turnovers.

And sometimes we just like to have a little fun.  Our “Fife Factor” ratings are a goofy little attempt to show which teams tend to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, penalties and sacks.

It’s for your enjoyment. 

But sadly, a few of you get angry over the numbers.



So here’s how you can tell if you’re taking some of our more off-the-wall stats too seriously:


* If you take the time to send me an email about how I’m “cheating” your favorite team… you’re taking these stats too seriously.

* If you use the word “numerator” in a post on our messageboard… you’re taking these stats too seriously.

* If you get angry when you look at one of our rankings… you’re taking these stats too seriously.



We’re not launching a rocket to the moon around here, we’re just trying to give you some outside-the-box, interesting, fun, oddball ways to look at the SEC’s football teams.

But for those of you who are mathematically inclined, I’m more than willing to let you put your money where my emailbox is.  I’m good with free labor.

If you’d like to doctor up your own digits, feel free to send them to me in a spreadsheet.  As long as I can verify the numbers — and I think the breakdown is interesting and unique — I’ll post it.

As for the vast majority of you who seem to like our stat analysis pieces… many thanks and we’ll be sure to keep them coming.



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1.  Kentucky hasn’t won at Georgia since 1977, but the Dawgs won’t have AJ Green and the Cats are 6-7 in their last 13 SEC road games.

That’s yet another reason for fans to get off Rich Brooks’ back.

2.  Georgia hasn’t put up a lot of yards this year, but “Georgia’s still Georgia.”

3.  And Kentucky could possibly be without Randall Cobb.

4.  Linebacker Sam Maxwell has gone from backup to star.

5.  On the basketball front, it sounds like John Calipari is growing tired of his team’s play.  “Our execution stinks right now.  It stinks because everybody’s trying to get theirs.”

6.  Outside-shooter Darnell Dodson is in Calipari’s doghouse.

7.  Meanwhile, Darius Miller seems to be a good fit for UK’s new dribble-drive offense.

8.  At least one Sam Houston State player is looking forward to facing Kentucky tonight.

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ESPN.com’s Chris Low has posted his weekly “what to watch” column as we head into the next-to-last week of SEC action.

He’s also posted his predictions for this weekend’s games.

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Each Thursday, the much-respected Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution posts a list of his “burning questions” as we head into the weekend.

Today, he covers the following:

1.  Can Georgia handle a little be of praise?

2.  Can LSU get excited, or even interested, enough to win at Ole Miss?

3.  Why is Alabama playing Chattanooga and why is Florida playing FIU?

4.  Is Tennessee going to bounce back against Vanderbilt?

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* UK played the last 30 minutes at Vandy about as well as they could possibly play.

* UK is a little more beat up this week.  Randall Cobb did not finish practice today and is questionable for Saturday’s game with Georgia.  Micah Johnson did not practice, either, but he should be ready to practice tomorrow.

* Brooks caught the end of Georgia’s game with Auburn on television and was impressed.

* If Cobb gets healthy late in the week he will play. 

* Asked about Georgia’s defensive line, Brooks said they give you all sorts of problems.  “They get such a good push with those tackles” in the pass game and they stuff the run well, too.

* Morgan Newton will start at quarterback again for the Cats.

* This year’s “there’s more of a jumbled pack” in the SEC this year when it comes to bowl selections.

* Brooks said that its clear the depth is better at Kentucky considering all of the injuries UK has lost this season.  UK hasn’t fallen off due to injuries “as we would have in previous years.”

* If Cobb can’t go Saturday because of his shoulder injury, UK will have to find someone new to return kicks, return punts, hold on kicks, and run the WildCobb spread formation.  Cobb is also the Cats’ leading receiver.  “Other than that…” Brooks joked.

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1.  Joker Phillips’ receivers are a big reason UK’s running game has been successful.

2.  Kentucky will be trying to keep Georgia from clinching second place in the SEC East.

3.  In basketball news, this writer likes that John Calipari LIKED the fact that UK got a wake-up call from Miami (Ohio).

4.  There’s more to the Cats’ offense than just the dribble-drive.

5.  Miami (Ohio) lit up the Wildcats from three-point range.

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There aren’t many things in football that are more important than turnovers.  They can stop drives.  They can kickstart (or deflate) a team emotionally.  And they can provide the turning point in a game.

For that reason, we actually look at turnovers using three different measures.

The first, is the old standard: turnover margin.  Below you’ll see each team’s turnover margin as well as their current record.



Turnover Margin

Rank
School (Record)
Takeaways
Giveaways
Margin
1
Arkansas (6-4)
23
11
+12
2
Alabama (10-0)
20
10
+10
3
LSU (8-2)
17
8
+9
4
Florida (10-0)
20
13
+7
5
Tennessee (5-5)
20
16
+4
6
Vanderbilt (2-9)
18
15
+3
7
Auburn (7-4)
19
17
+2
8
Kentucky (6-4)
16
17
-1
9
S. Carolina (6-5)
13
17
-4
10
Miss. State (4-6)
19
26
-7
11
Ole Miss (7-3)
14
22
-8
12
Georgia (6-4)
8
22
-14


Observations:

* The four conference teams who have a +7 turnover margin or better are a combined 34-6.

* It’s amazing that Georgia has a -14 turnover margin yet still holds a 6-4 record.



Next, we wanted to determine which offenses did the best of holding onto the football.  Our plan?  Divide the total number of offensive snaps by the total number of giveaways.  We call this stat Ball Security.



Ball Security

Rank
School (Record)
Off. Plays
Giveaways
Plays/Turnover
1
LSU (8-2)
595
8
74.37
2
Alabama (10-0)
674
10
67.40
3
Arkansas (6-4)
643
11
58.45
4
Florida (10-0)
664
13
51.07
5
Vanderbilt (2-9)
735
15
49.00
6
Auburn (7-4)
783
17
46.05
7
S. Carolina (6-5)
731
17
43.00
8
Tennessee (5-5)
677
16
42.31
9
Kentucky (6-4)
688
17
40.47
10
Ole Miss (7-3)
680
22
30.90
11
Georgia (6-4)
593
22
26.95
12
Miss. State (4-6)
680
26
26.15


Observations:

* The LSU offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut this year, but they have taken care of the football.  Through 10 games, the Tigers have turned it over just 8 times.  That’s a turnover once every 74.37 plays.  Gary Crowton can at least be proud of that fact.

* As with Turnover Margin, the top four teams in Ball Security are a combined 34-6.

* How good might Ole Miss and Georgia have been if they hadn’t turned the ball over so much?  The Rebels turn it over once every 30.90 plays yet are still 7-3.  The Dawgs give it away once every 26.95 plays, but they’re 6-4.



Finally, we wanted to find out which SEC defenses are the best at forcing turnovers.  As you might have guessed, we divided the total number of snaps a defense has run by the total number of takeaways they have forced.  We call this one Defensive Thievery.



Defensive Thievery

Rank
School (Record)
Def. Plays
Takeways
Plays/Turnover
1
Florida (10-0)
593
20
29.65
2
Arkansas (6-4)
686
23
29.82
3
Alabama (10-0)
618
20
30.90
4
Tennessee (5-5)
656
20
32.80
5
Miss. State (4-6)
669
19
35.21
6
Auburn (7-4)
763
19
40.15
7
LSU (8-2)
694
17
40.82
8
Kentucky (6-4)
654
16
40.87
9
Vanderbilt (2-9)
771
18
42.83
10
Ole Miss (7-3)
660
14
47.14
11
S. Carolina (6-5)
697
13
53.61
12
Georgia (6-4)
654
8
81.75


Observations:

* Florida and Alabama rank in the top four in the conference in each of the three turnover stats that we track.  No wonder they’re undefeated and headed for a showdown in Atlanta.

* Arkansas’ defense has given up a lot of yards and a lot of points this year.  How bad might thing have been if the Razorbacks hadn’t forced a turnover once every 29.82 plays?

* Ditto for 4-6 Mississippi State and 5-5 Tennessee.  Without forced takeaways, you have to think that both teams would be even farther down the SEC’s standings.

* Georgia takes the ball from its opponents just once every 81.75 plays.  That’s less than one takeaway per game (with the average snap count being between 60 and 65).  In fact, South Carolina ranks 11th in the Defensive Thievery yet they force a turnover in about 30 fewer plays than the Bulldogs.



(Notes — These statistics DO include numbers from all games, not just in-conference battles.  If you see a typo, please email me.  It’s late and my eyes are going.)

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Those of you who’ve followed this site all year know that I like to bring you stats that you just don’t find anywhere else. 

Like the one below.

Coaches often tell their teams that they can’t afford to beat themselves.  Well I wanted to see which SEC squads did the best job of avoiding self-inflicted wounds, so I came up with what we at MrSEC.com call The Fife Factor.

Penalties, turnovers on offense, and sacks are all killers.  They are the equivalent of Barney Fife shooting himself in the foot.

Therefore, to arrive at The Fife Factor for each team, we tally up all of a team’s penalties, giveaways and sacks allowed.  We then calculate the total number of snaps run by a team on offense and defense.  We take that number, divide it by the total miscues, and arrive at our Fife Factor.

Without further ado, below are the SEC’s teams ranked from best to worst according to their proclivity for screwing up.



The Fife Factor

Rank
School
Off. Plays
Def. Plays
Penalties
Giveaways
Sacks Allowed
Total Miscues
Total Plays
Miscues/Play
1
Alabama
674
618
54
10
9
73
1292
17.69
2
Tennessee
677
656
50
16
11
77
1333
17.31
3
Vanderbilt
735
771
52
15
22
89
1506
16.92
4
Kentucky
688
654
56
17
12
85
1342
15.78
5
Auburn
783
763
77
17
15
109
1546
14.18
6
Miss St
680
660
58
26
14
98
1340
13.67
7
LSU
595
694
60
8
27
95
1289
13.56
8
Ole Miss
680
669
65
22
13
100
1349
13.49
9
Arkansas
643
686
75
11
20
106
1329
12.53
10
Florida
664
593
64
13
24
101
1257
12.44
11
SCarolina
731
697
69
17
33
119
1428
12.00
12
Georgia
593
654
79
22
11
112
1247
11.13



Observations:

* It’s no surprise that Alabama has been the most disciplined team in the conference this year.  The Tide shoots itself in the foot (does a “Tide” have a foot?) just once every 17.69 plays.

* It IS a surprise that Florida ranks just 10th in the league in The Fife Factor.  The Gators commit too many penalties and allow too many sacks for an undefeated football team.  I suppose that shows just how athletically superior UF is to most teams.  They can commit a miscue once every 12.44 plays and still win every game they play.  But what will happen when a team that often hurts itself faces a team like Alabama — that doesn’t hurt itself — in the SEC title game?

* Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky are a combined 13-18, but those teams do not beat themselves.  Coaches (and fans) always like to say “we just beat ourselves today,” but in the case of these teams, it’s not true.  These are disciplined football teams.  In all three cases, injuries have played a role in losses, but not a flurry of self-inflicted wounds.

* Teams that DO beat themselves?  Georgia and South Carolina.  The Bulldogs have committed more penalties than any team in the league and only Mississippi State has turned the ball over more often than the Dawgs.  If you don’t have Tim Tebow and a suffocating defense, it’s hard to win that way.  As for Carolina, a league-leading 33 sacks allowed have greatly slowed down Steve Spurrier’s offense.

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According to Ray Glier of The AJC, Rich Brooks is on the hot seat in Lexington.  Heck, even Brooks admits it:

“They put some ‘Ditch Rich’ bumper stickers on their cars.  They say I’m too old and I gotta go, that they need a better coach.  They’re howling.  We lost to #1 Florida, #3 Alabama and South Carolina, then Mississippi State.  Some of them want me out of here.”

Ah, but should they?

Traditionally, Kentucky is a program that nearly matches Vanderbilt in SEC futility.

Consider:

* UK has a 24-game losing streak to Tennessee

* The Cats have lost 23 in a row to Florida

* Georgia has beaten Kentucky 21 of the last 24 times they’ve played

* The Wildcats are 0-for-Spurrier all-time and have lost 10 in a row to South Carolina

* This year UK beat Auburn for the first time in 12 tries dating back to 1966

* Kentucky’s holds just a two-game advantage over Vandy in their head-to-head history (40-38-4).



Brooks has overcome that history.  UK is now bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season.  The anti-Brooks faction doesn’t seem to care.  Those folks would most likely point to two “yeah, buts.”

Yeah, but it’s not as hard to reach a bowl game today as it was 20 years ago, which is true.

And…

Yeah, but Brooks has feasted on weak non-conference opponents, not SEC foes.  True again.

Looking at the bowl seasons of 2006, 2007, 2008 as well as the now bowl-eligible season of 2009, you’ll see that the list of Cat victories isn’t exactly stellar.

In those four seasons, UK has recorded wins over:

Texas State, Ole Miss, Central Michigan, Mississippi State (2), Georgia, Vanderbilt (3), Louisiana-Monroe (2), Clemson, Eastern Kentucky (2), Kent State, Louisville (3), Arkansas (2), Florida Atlantic, LSU, Florida State, Norfolk State, MTSU, Western Kentucky, East Carolina, Miami (Ohio), and Auburn.



I can see why some Kentucky fans are grumbling.  I can see it, but I don’t agree with it.   

Brooks has made UK football better.  No, he hasn’t turned the program into a contender in the SEC East, but he has improved the situation in Lexington considerably.

There was a time when Kentucky couldn’t sniff a bowl game… much less be invited to one every year for four years.

There was a time when UK couldn’t beat a Florida State or a Clemson even in a down year for those schools. 

There are few victories in the school’s history that rank alongside the Cats’ 2007 win over #1 LSU.

Brooks has also taken control of in-state rivalry with Louisville.

And on those rare occasions when Kentucky has had success in their history, NCAA investigators have often showed up quickly to shut down the party.  Brooks hasn’t landed the school on probation as Fran Curci and Hal Mumme did.



Brooks deserves to go out on his own terms.  And according to what one source very close to the UK football program tells me, that’s what’s likely to happen.

Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart understands what Brooks has accomplished and he won’t be pulling any plugs at the end of this season even if the Cats finish 6-6 with losses to Georgia and Tennessee. 

Also, while the talkshow and bumper sticker crowd is upset, the main UK boosters (who wouldn’t dare put bumper stickers on their Audis) aren’t complaining too loudly. 

So would Brooks walk away on his own if his team stumbles down the stretch? 

I’m told no.  In fact, in my source’s opinion, Brooks would be more likely to step aside if UK ends on a high note.

Joker Phillips is the Big Blue’s coach-in-waiting.  It is believed Brooks wants to hand him the reins after a good season, not after a disappointing one.

Therefore it’s likely that Brooks will be back on the Commonwealth Stadium sidelines next year at the age of 69. 

And any Kentucky fan with a sense of the school’s football history should be just fine with that.

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1.  It looks like the SEC will land 10 teams in bowl games… and here’s a guess as to where they’ll finish.

2.  This writer tries to predict where the SEC’s teams will land this bowl season.

3.  Here’s another look at possible SEC bowl matchups.

4.  The BCS has created a new role for an “executive director.”  Yeah, now the system will work.

5.  Consistently, there’s no columnist in the SEC who is a bigger homer than this guy.  Entertaining writer, but by far the man most anxious to praise the hometown team, players, coaches, etc.



And in case you missed them this morning and last night, here are a few more links from right here at MrSEC:

1.  Not using Dexter McCluster more hurt Jevan Snead and hurt Ole Miss’ chances for finishing in the Top 10.

2.  Alabama and Florida are crushing the competition in our analysis of SEC Pure Defensive Efficiency.

3.  Georgia has passed Arkansas at the top of our SEC Pure Offensive Efficiency rankings.

4.  There are still a lot of questions, rumors and disinformation swirling around the arrest of three Tennessee freshmen last week.

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1.  Kentucky’s players are happy to be bowl eligible, but they now want to line-up a better bowl.  “We want to get out of Tennessee.”

2.  Reaching six wins for the fourth straight year, the Cats didn’t celebrate as much on Saturday as they have in previous seasons.

3.  In basketball news, John Wall’s last second jumper pulled out a 72-70 win for the Wildcats  over Miami (Ohio) last night.

4.  Wall showed brilliance (and a few faults) in his college debut.  (Also, John Calipari says he was “ecstatic” to see his team fall behind by 18.)

5.  DeMarcus Cousins says “John is legit.  Everything you hear is legit.”

6.  Meanwhile, Calipari wants Cousins to enjoy himself more on the court.

7.  Kentucky already got a first-place vote in the first AP Poll of the basketball season.

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1.  LSU expects Jordan Jefferson to be back under center against Ole Miss this weekend.

2.  Andy Staples of SI.com explores where dismissed Vols Nu’Keese Richardson and Mike Edwards might land, reminds folks of Urban Meyer’s forgiving nature, and points a finger at Terry Bowden who’s built a strong team at North Alabama using other programs’ castoffs.

3.  Some SEC assistants are being talked about in connection with head coaching vacancies.  In fact, Tennessee’s Eddie Gran has ALREADY spoken with Memphis about their opening.

4.  Here’s who’s hot and who’s not in the SEC.

5.  Tony Barnhart of The AJC believes it’s time to add a new human poll to the BCS.

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John Calipari has been saying that the first concern for his team is to gain confidence in his new system.  The wins will come.

Last night it looked like Kentucky fans might have to take that message to heart.  The Wildcats trailed Miami (Ohio) by 18 points in the first half and were locked in a back-and-forth duel down the stretch.

The RedHawks tied the game at 70-70 with just six seconds to play on a deep, deep three-pointer… but that’s when freshman John Wall took over.

The player who is already expected to be the national player of the year and the first pick in next year’s NBA draft caught the inbounds pass, zipped up court and calmly nailed a pull-up jumper from 15 feet out as with 0.5 seconds left.

Cats win 72-20.  Rupp Arena goes nuts.  Wall announces his presence on the college basketball scene.



“John Wall catching it and going, I loved it,” Calipari said.

No doubt Kentucky fans loved it, too.  One game down and Wall has 19 points, five rebounds and a last-second game-winner.  Not a bad debut at all.

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To go along with our offensive pure efficiency rankings, here’s our weekly update on each team’s defensive scoring efficiency.

As usual, we track only in-conference games to avoid skewing the numbers with stronger/weaker non-conference schedules.

To determine which defenses force opponents to work the hardest to score touchdowns, we tally up all of the defensive snaps run by each SEC squad, divide that number by the total number of rushing/passing TDs they have allowed, which gives us a simple plays-per-touchdown allowed ratio.

Below are the numbers for each SEC defense through Week Eleven.



Pure Defensive Efficiency

Rank
Last Week’s Rank
School
Total Def. Plays
Total TDs Allowed
Plays/TD Allowed
1
3
Alabama
462
6
77.00
2
2
Florida
458
8
57.25
3
5
LSU
404
10
40.40
4
4
Ole Miss
394
10
39.40
5
1
Tennessee
407
11
37.00
6
6
Vanderbilt
494
18
27.44
7
8
SCarolina
504
20
25.20
8
7
Miss St
397
17
23.35
9
10
Georgia
479
22
21.77
10
11
Kentucky
386
18
21.44
11
9
Auburn
480
24
20.00
12
12
Arkansas
403
21
19.19



Observations:

* Teams have run 920 offensive plays against Alabama and Florida.  Of those 920 plays, 14 have resulted in touchdowns.  In other words, .015% of all offensive snaps run against the Tide and Gators end up in the end zone.  The SEC Championship Game in Atlanta will BE the national championship game.

* Ole Miss continues to be the best defense in the SEC that no one talks about.  Even without Greg Hardy, their defensive line dominated against Tennessee.

* In one game, Dexter McCluster and the Rebels dropped Tennessee from the best defense in the conference to the fifth-best defense in the conference.

* Vandy’s defense gets no help from its offense, but the Commodores are still in the middle of the league in pure defensive efficiency.

* In the last few weeks, Georgia has climbed from the league’s cellar all the way to 9th in defensive efficiency.  Don’t get too excited, they’re still giving up a touchdown once every 21.77 snaps (about three per game).

* Arkansas’ offense is great.  Their defense stinks.  This weekend’s game with Mississippi State will be closer than you might expect.

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Every week we tabulate the efficiency numbers for each SEC offense based solely on their performance against other SEC teams.  That way nothing is skewed by a game with a Furman, a Western Kentucky, or even a Virginia Tech.

The stat itself is pretty simple: total offensive plays run… divided by the total number of passing/rushing touchdowns scored.  That gives us a “pure” plays-per-touchdown grade for each school.

Below you’ll find those numbers as they stand through this past weekend’s action.



Pure Offensive Efficiency

Rank
Last Week’s Rank
School
Total Off. Plays
Total TDs Scored
Plays/TD
1
2
Georgia
414
22
18.81
2
1
Arkansas
392
20
19.60
3
3
Tennessee
386
17
22.70
4
4
Florida
522
21
24.85
5
7
Alabama
456
17
26.82
6
6
Kentucky
413
15
27.53
7
5
Auburn
498
18
27.66
8
10
Ole Miss
420
15
28.00
9
8
LSU
372
12
31.00
10
11
SCarolina
545
14
38.92
11
9
Miss St
396
10
39.60
12
12
Vanderbilt
444
4
111.00



Observations:

* Once again, I want to make something very clear: Any Georgia fan calling for a cleaning of the proverbial house that includes the dismissal of offensive coordinator Mike Bobo… needs to have his head examined.  The Dawgs’ offense — despite having to replace a first-round NFL quarterback and a first-round NFL tailback — are scoring more easily in SEC games than any other team in the league.  Cry about the defense.  Scream about the losses to Florida and Tennessee, but pipe down when it comes to criticizing the SEC’s most efficient offense.

* Too bad Troy isn’t in the SEC or Ryan Mallett and Bobby Petrino’s offense would still be on top of our standings.

* Tennessee’s loss at Ole Miss had more to do with their defense than their offense.

* Florida’s not dominant.  Florida wins ugly.  Florida doesn’t have a quick-strike offense.  Whatever.  The Gators score more easily than all but three other SEC teams.  All in the nation’s toughest defensive conference.  Facts are facts.

* Greg McElroy, meet Julio Jones.  Julio Jones, meet Greg McElroy.  Alabama, meet the Top 5 in SEC pure offensive efficiency.

* Just me, or is anyone else surprised to see Kentucky still in the middle of the pack on offense?  It seems like they should be ranked lower.  Four guys taking snaps on the season, yet Joker Phillips’ gang is still able to move the ball.

* Even after a six touchdown explosion against Tennessee, Ole Miss still ranks 8th in efficiency.  Ya shoulda given Dexter McCluster the ball sooner, Coach Nutt.

* I’m not sure which offense has been more disappointing: LSU’s or South Carolina’s.



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It’s Monday, which means it’s time to check our updated commitment Big Board for the SEC.

Only three schools received commitments last week (Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee) so there’s not been a lot of movement up and down the chart. 

Tennessee has moved up into a second-place tie with Alabama… and Auburn has widened their lead over Georgia and Florida.

As always, we use the Rivals.com rankings and assign one point for every star Rivals’ hands out.  We also give 0-star athletes a 1-point value because we’re bleeding-heart softies.

Without further ado, here’s how things look less than 12 weeks from National Signing Day:



School
Commits
5-stars
4-stars
3-stars
2-stars
1- and 0-stars
Total Points
Avg. Points
LSU
23
0
15
8
0
0
84
3.65
Alabama 
22
2
10
8
2
0
78
3.54
Tennessee
22
0
12
10
0
0
78
3.54
Auburn
21
1
8
11
1
0
72
3.42
Georgia
18
1
9
8
0
0
65
3.61
Florida
17
1
11
5
0
0
64
3.76
Vanderbilt
21
0
0
19
2
0
61
2.90
SCarolina
19
0
3
12
1
3
53
2.78
Arkansas
15
0
1
12
1
1
43
2.86
Kentucky
16
0
0
9
3
4
37
2.31
Miss St
14
0
2
8
0
4
36
2.57
Ole Miss
11
0
2
9
0
0
35
3.18



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Just a few more quick news items.  We’ll dig into some recruiting updates shortly.

1.  The SEC has named its Players of the Week for Week 11 of the season.

2.  This year’s stat sheets prove that championship teams play great defense.

3.  Here’s another excellent weekend wrap column from Paul Gattis of The Huntsville Times.

4.  Chris Low of ESPN.com lists the players who’ve played their way into star status this season.

5.  And who doesn’t love SEC power rankings?

6.  Finally, in basketball news, Arkansas’ Rotnei Clarke (51 points versus Alcorn State) and Kentucky’s Eric Bledsoe (24 points in his debut game) have been named the SEC’s Player of the Week and Freshman of the Week respectively.

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1.  Quarterback Mike Hartline will have knee surgery and miss the rest of UK’s regular season.

2.  In basketball news, John Wall makes his official debut tonight against Miami of Ohio.

3.  That means Cat fans will finally see the freshman backcourt of their dreams.

4.  Darius Miller lacks confidence when shooting.

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Each Monday we like to be the first guys on the block to bring you the television schedule and updated odds for the following weekend’s SEC action.

That way, you can print out the schedule, lose it sometime during the week, and then come back to print it out again… thus driving up our pageviews.

So here are this weekend’s games, where you can see them and what the oddsmakers think of them.  All times are Eastern.


SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21ST


Mississippi State at Arkansas
12:21pm
ESPN Regional Syndicated Package
Arkansas -10.5


Chattanooga at Alabama
12:21pm
ESPN Regional Syndicated Package
No Line


Florida International at Florida
12:30pm
Pay-Per-View
No Line


LSU at Ole Miss
3:30pm
CBS
Ole Miss -3


Vanderbilt at Tennessee
7:00pm
ESPNU
Tennessee -17


Kentucky at Georgia
7:45pm
ESPN2
Georgia -7.5

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