With two weeks to play, the SEC’s bowl picture is as blurry now as it was a month ago.

Florida and Alabama have been dominant and both have run away from the pack.  On the other end of spectrum, Vanderbilt is the only SEC team already eliminated from the bowl picture.

The other nine teams in the league are still jockeying for position.  With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of what each team has left between now and bowl bid time in two weeks:

We’ll dive into the prediction game at this point, but don’t go putting any money on these picks.  My views are likely to change a whole lot come Sunday morning.



BCS Title Game (vs Texas)
ALABAMA, 13-0
Florida got the Tide last year, this year I’ll take Bama to exact revenge.


Sugar Bowl (vs TCU)
FLORIDA, 12-1
But I could see the SEC title game going the other way, too


Capital One Bowl (vs Penn State)
LSU, 9-3
The Capital One committee would love this matchup for attendance and TV purposes


Outback Bowl (vs Wisconsin)
Ole Miss, 8-4
I believe this is a year when the Outback will request a West Division team due to their better record


Cotton Bowl (vs Nebraska)
Tennessee, 7-5
When the Cotton Bowl goes with an East Division team, it’s usually Tennessee


Chick-fil-A Bowl (vs Clemson)
Auburn, 7-5
The Tigers played Clemson in this bowl just two years ago, but this one still seems to make sense from an attendance standpoint


Music City Bowl (vs North Carolina)
South Carolina, 7-5
How can the folks in Nashville pass up a game that was SUPPOSED to start next year’s schedule?


Liberty Bowl (vs East Carolina)
Georgia, 7-5
I think an upset Georgia fanbase will be seen as less likely to travel, thus the Dawgs fall all the way to the Liberty


Independence Bowl (vs Kansas State)
Arkansas, 7-5
It’s unlikely, but an Iowa State-Auburn matchup would be interesting here, wouldn’t it?

(UPDATE — I had a typo on my spreadsheet that has now been corrected… Arkansas is currently 6-4, not 5-7.  Logic was right, record in table was wrong.)

Papajohns.com Bowl (vs West Virginia)
Kentucky, 6-6
At least the Wildcats will go somewhere south of Tennessee this year

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1.  Pat Dooley of The Gainesville Sun makes his weekend predictions here.

(Mr. Dooley takes his usual shots at Lane Kiffin and Georgia as well.)

2.  Charles Hollis of The Birmingham News makes his predictions, too.

3.  Geoff Calkins of The MCA has posted his picks for the weekend.

4.  Tony Barnhart of The AJC has made his prognostications as well.

5.  Finally, there is a chance that UGA VII will be laid to rest at Sanford Stadium in a private ceremony before tomorrow’s Kentucky game.

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1.  Gene Chizik says that any new developments in the lawsuit against running back Eric Smith will be dealt with “the right way.”

2.  Smith is being sued by someone he allegedly assaulted in August.  The lawsuit suggests two other unnamed Tigers were involved in the crime.

3.  Linebacker Eltoro Freeman has missed two straight days of practice.

4.  In basketball news, Auburn struggles when Tay Waller doesn’t play… and he might not play tonight against Central Florida.

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SI.com asked college football fans across the nation to weigh in on a number of topics in a recent survey.  The fans responded.

Not surprisingly, the SEC ranked #1 in terms of the best conference in the land.  The rest of the overall results are interesting — for example, most fans say they follow recruiting either “casually” or “not at all.”

The answers of SEC fans have also been broken down.  Some of those results are as follows:


1.  What is your biggest conference rival? 

23.5% said Alabama, 17.5% said Georgia, and 17.4% said Florida.  On the other end of the spectrum, more fans consider Vanderbilt to be a rival of their team than either Kentucky or South Carolina.


2.  What is your favorite stadium to visit in your team’s conference?

24.8% said Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, followed by Sanford Stadium in Athens, Neyland Stadium in Knoxville and The Swamp.  (Sounds to me like a lot of fans voted for their own home stadium ’cause most folks do NOT want to go to Tiger Stadium or The Swamp.)


3.  Which school has the rudest fans for visitors?

LSU fans got 32.2% of the vote.  Florida was next at just 19.2% followed by Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia.


4.  Which school has the most polite fans for visitors?

Vandy fans got the nod at 37.4% followed by Ole Miss, Kentucky and Georgia fans.  (So Dawg fans are both rude AND polite?)

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We’ve still got the Mississippi schools to cover in our team notes, but first, here are some columns and blurbs from across the league:

1.  It’s sad that some Georgia fans turn the UGA campus into a trash dump for each home game.

2.  Travis Haney of The Charleston Post & Courier writes that Tim Tebow isn’t deserving of the Heisman in his weekly weekend preview column.

3.  It says a lot about the depth of the SEC that the league should be able to fill all 10 of its bowl slots this year.

4.  According to this SEC notes column, this year marks the first time Florida has logged a perfect conference record since their 1996 national championship season.

5.  This by-the-numbers SEC column reveals that Urban Meyer has passed Tennessee’s Robert Neyland as the leader in all-time conference winning percentage (for coaches with more than five years experience).  Meyer has won 80% of his league games… Neyland won 78.7%.

I guess it’s safe to say his spread offense has worked, no?

6.  The Music City Bowl thinks it will likely land either Georgia, Auburn or Tennessee from the SEC and either Miami, Florida State or North Carolina from the ACC.

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Just a quick note for a few of you who are getting way too bent out of shape over the statistics we post on this site.

I like to post numbers you might not find elsewhere.  We use the Yards Per Pass Attempt stat a lot because many math-geek football fans believe it’s a good gauge of an offense’s overall success.

We use our own offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to show you which SEC schools are the best at scoring points and the worst at allowing points.  Yards don’t go on the scoreboard, points do… which is why we like these stats.

We track the number of plays an offense typically runs between turnovers.  Flip it and we use the same technique to show you which defenses are the best at forcing turnovers.

And sometimes we just like to have a little fun.  Our “Fife Factor” ratings are a goofy little attempt to show which teams tend to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers, penalties and sacks.

It’s for your enjoyment. 

But sadly, a few of you get angry over the numbers.



So here’s how you can tell if you’re taking some of our more off-the-wall stats too seriously:


* If you take the time to send me an email about how I’m “cheating” your favorite team… you’re taking these stats too seriously.

* If you use the word “numerator” in a post on our messageboard… you’re taking these stats too seriously.

* If you get angry when you look at one of our rankings… you’re taking these stats too seriously.



We’re not launching a rocket to the moon around here, we’re just trying to give you some outside-the-box, interesting, fun, oddball ways to look at the SEC’s football teams.

But for those of you who are mathematically inclined, I’m more than willing to let you put your money where my emailbox is.  I’m good with free labor.

If you’d like to doctor up your own digits, feel free to send them to me in a spreadsheet.  As long as I can verify the numbers — and I think the breakdown is interesting and unique — I’ll post it.

As for the vast majority of you who seem to like our stat analysis pieces… many thanks and we’ll be sure to keep them coming.

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1.  During their bye week, Auburn’s coaches are working on the team’s undisciplined mistakes.

2.  Penalties have become a big pain for the Tigers as the season has worn on.

3.  Auburn’s defense has given up more points than any previous Tiger team.

4.  Folks are still talking about the fact Gene Chizik was going to go for two if Auburn had scored late at Georgia… rather than kicking the extra point and playing for overtime.

5.  In case you’re wondering, Chizik’s favorite Iron Bowl was his first.

6.  In basketball news, juco transfer Kenny Gabriel will be out “for a while” after undergoing hernia surgery yesterday.

7.  Jeff Lebo has inked six players during the early signing period and the class is drawing national praise.

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ESPN.com’s Chris Low has posted his weekly “what to watch” column as we head into the next-to-last week of SEC action.

He’s also posted his predictions for this weekend’s games.

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Each Thursday, the much-respected Tony Barnhart of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution posts a list of his “burning questions” as we head into the weekend.

Today, he covers the following:

1.  Can Georgia handle a little be of praise?

2.  Can LSU get excited, or even interested, enough to win at Ole Miss?

3.  Why is Alabama playing Chattanooga and why is Florida playing FIU?

4.  Is Tennessee going to bounce back against Vanderbilt?

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* The open date has come at good time for Auburn after four straight months of football.

* Health question… “Our coaches aren’t allowed to get sick during the season,” Chizik joked.  “Typically over the years you don’t see a lot of coaches getting sick during the season.”

* Chizik says he’ll explain to his freshmen the importance of the Iron Bowl and “the privilege” of it.  “It carries some weight” when it comes to recruiting as well, but Chizik doesn’t feel that winning or losing the game guarantees getting or losing a prospect.

* The pageantry and heat of the Iron Bowl rivalry makes next week a bigger recruiting weekend than others throughout the season.

* Most of the coaches are having a pretty easy day today.  Not a lot of questions.

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1.  Some possible bad news for Auburn this morning… a lawsuit filed against running back Eric Smith alleges that two other Auburn football players were also involved in an August incident that left an AU student bloodied and unconscious.

2.  Smith and the two teammates are supposedly part of a group called “The Swag Crew,” which acts — according to some — as a gang.  (We’ll have more on this one later in the day.)

3.  Gene Chizik is having to defend defensive coordinator Ted Roof… despite the fact that he’s coaching with one hand behind his back due to depth and injuries.  Good Lord.

4.  This writer believes Chizik’s first season at Auburn mirrors Nick Saban’s first season at Alabama.

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There aren’t many things in football that are more important than turnovers.  They can stop drives.  They can kickstart (or deflate) a team emotionally.  And they can provide the turning point in a game.

For that reason, we actually look at turnovers using three different measures.

The first, is the old standard: turnover margin.  Below you’ll see each team’s turnover margin as well as their current record.



Turnover Margin

Observations:

* The four conference teams who have a +7 turnover margin or better are a combined 34-6.

* It’s amazing that Georgia has a -14 turnover margin yet still holds a 6-4 record.



Next, we wanted to determine which offenses did the best of holding onto the football.  Our plan?  Divide the total number of offensive snaps by the total number of giveaways.  We call this stat Ball Security.



Ball Security

Observations:

* The LSU offense hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut this year, but they have taken care of the football.  Through 10 games, the Tigers have turned it over just 8 times.  That’s a turnover once every 74.37 plays.  Gary Crowton can at least be proud of that fact.

* As with Turnover Margin, the top four teams in Ball Security are a combined 34-6.

* How good might Ole Miss and Georgia have been if they hadn’t turned the ball over so much?  The Rebels turn it over once every 30.90 plays yet are still 7-3.  The Dawgs give it away once every 26.95 plays, but they’re 6-4.



Finally, we wanted to find out which SEC defenses are the best at forcing turnovers.  As you might have guessed, we divided the total number of snaps a defense has run by the total number of takeaways they have forced.  We call this one Defensive Thievery.



Defensive Thievery

Observations:

* Florida and Alabama rank in the top four in the conference in each of the three turnover stats that we track.  No wonder they’re undefeated and headed for a showdown in Atlanta.

* Arkansas’ defense has given up a lot of yards and a lot of points this year.  How bad might thing have been if the Razorbacks hadn’t forced a turnover once every 29.82 plays?

* Ditto for 4-6 Mississippi State and 5-5 Tennessee.  Without forced takeaways, you have to think that both teams would be even farther down the SEC’s standings.

* Georgia takes the ball from its opponents just once every 81.75 plays.  That’s less than one takeaway per game (with the average snap count being between 60 and 65).  In fact, South Carolina ranks 11th in the Defensive Thievery yet they force a turnover in about 30 fewer plays than the Bulldogs.



(Notes — These statistics DO include numbers from all games, not just in-conference battles.  If you see a typo, please email me.  It’s late and my eyes are going.)

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Those of you who’ve followed this site all year know that I like to bring you stats that you just don’t find anywhere else. 

Like the one below.

Coaches often tell their teams that they can’t afford to beat themselves.  Well I wanted to see which SEC squads did the best job of avoiding self-inflicted wounds, so I came up with what we at MrSEC.com call The Fife Factor.

Penalties, turnovers on offense, and sacks are all killers.  They are the equivalent of Barney Fife shooting himself in the foot.

Therefore, to arrive at The Fife Factor for each team, we tally up all of a team’s penalties, giveaways and sacks allowed.  We then calculate the total number of snaps run by a team on offense and defense.  We take that number, divide it by the total miscues, and arrive at our Fife Factor.

Without further ado, below are the SEC’s teams ranked from best to worst according to their proclivity for screwing up.



The Fife Factor

Observations:

* It’s no surprise that Alabama has been the most disciplined team in the conference this year.  The Tide shoots itself in the foot (does a “Tide” have a foot?) just once every 17.69 plays.

* It IS a surprise that Florida ranks just 10th in the league in The Fife Factor.  The Gators commit too many penalties and allow too many sacks for an undefeated football team.  I suppose that shows just how athletically superior UF is to most teams.  They can commit a miscue once every 12.44 plays and still win every game they play.  But what will happen when a team that often hurts itself faces a team like Alabama — that doesn’t hurt itself — in the SEC title game?

* Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky are a combined 13-18, but those teams do not beat themselves.  Coaches (and fans) always like to say “we just beat ourselves today,” but in the case of these teams, it’s not true.  These are disciplined football teams.  In all three cases, injuries have played a role in losses, but not a flurry of self-inflicted wounds.

* Teams that DO beat themselves?  Georgia and South Carolina.  The Bulldogs have committed more penalties than any team in the league and only Mississippi State has turned the ball over more often than the Dawgs.  If you don’t have Tim Tebow and a suffocating defense, it’s hard to win that way.  As for Carolina, a league-leading 33 sacks allowed have greatly slowed down Steve Spurrier’s offense.

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1.  It looks like the SEC will land 10 teams in bowl games… and here’s a guess as to where they’ll finish.

2.  This writer tries to predict where the SEC’s teams will land this bowl season.

3.  Here’s another look at possible SEC bowl matchups.

4.  The BCS has created a new role for an “executive director.”  Yeah, now the system will work.

5.  Consistently, there’s no columnist in the SEC who is a bigger homer than this guy.  Entertaining writer, but by far the man most anxious to praise the hometown team, players, coaches, etc.



And in case you missed them this morning and last night, here are a few more links from right here at MrSEC:

1.  Not using Dexter McCluster more hurt Jevan Snead and hurt Ole Miss’ chances for finishing in the Top 10.

2.  Alabama and Florida are crushing the competition in our analysis of SEC Pure Defensive Efficiency.

3.  Georgia has passed Arkansas at the top of our SEC Pure Offensive Efficiency rankings.

4.  There are still a lot of questions, rumors and disinformation swirling around the arrest of three Tennessee freshmen last week.

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1.  Demond Washington has become a starting safety, a starting punt returner and Auburn’s most danger kick returner all in the past month.

2.  As we noted in the Alabama headlines as well… Paul Finebaum of The Mobile Press-Register doesn’t believe Auburn stands a chance against Alabama in two weeks.

3.  In basketball news, the Tigers fell to 1-1 with a 73-62 loss at Missouri State last night.

4.  Jeff Lebo correctly pointed out after the game that “eight assists and 25 turnovers will get you beat.”  Now that’s some bad offense.

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1.  LSU expects Jordan Jefferson to be back under center against Ole Miss this weekend.

2.  Andy Staples of SI.com explores where dismissed Vols Nu’Keese Richardson and Mike Edwards might land, reminds folks of Urban Meyer’s forgiving nature, and points a finger at Terry Bowden who’s built a strong team at North Alabama using other programs’ castoffs.

3.  Some SEC assistants are being talked about in connection with head coaching vacancies.  In fact, Tennessee’s Eddie Gran has ALREADY spoken with Memphis about their opening.

4.  Here’s who’s hot and who’s not in the SEC.

5.  Tony Barnhart of The AJC believes it’s time to add a new human poll to the BCS.

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To go along with our offensive pure efficiency rankings, here’s our weekly update on each team’s defensive scoring efficiency.

As usual, we track only in-conference games to avoid skewing the numbers with stronger/weaker non-conference schedules.

To determine which defenses force opponents to work the hardest to score touchdowns, we tally up all of the defensive snaps run by each SEC squad, divide that number by the total number of rushing/passing TDs they have allowed, which gives us a simple plays-per-touchdown allowed ratio.

Below are the numbers for each SEC defense through Week Eleven.



Pure Defensive Efficiency

Observations:

* Teams have run 920 offensive plays against Alabama and Florida.  Of those 920 plays, 14 have resulted in touchdowns.  In other words, .015% of all offensive snaps run against the Tide and Gators end up in the end zone.  The SEC Championship Game in Atlanta will BE the national championship game.

* Ole Miss continues to be the best defense in the SEC that no one talks about.  Even without Greg Hardy, their defensive line dominated against Tennessee.

* In one game, Dexter McCluster and the Rebels dropped Tennessee from the best defense in the conference to the fifth-best defense in the conference.

* Vandy’s defense gets no help from its offense, but the Commodores are still in the middle of the league in pure defensive efficiency.

* In the last few weeks, Georgia has climbed from the league’s cellar all the way to 9th in defensive efficiency.  Don’t get too excited, they’re still giving up a touchdown once every 21.77 snaps (about three per game).

* Arkansas’ offense is great.  Their defense stinks.  This weekend’s game with Mississippi State will be closer than you might expect.

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Every week we tabulate the efficiency numbers for each SEC offense based solely on their performance against other SEC teams.  That way nothing is skewed by a game with a Furman, a Western Kentucky, or even a Virginia Tech.

The stat itself is pretty simple: total offensive plays run… divided by the total number of passing/rushing touchdowns scored.  That gives us a “pure” plays-per-touchdown grade for each school.

Below you’ll find those numbers as they stand through this past weekend’s action.



Pure Offensive Efficiency

Observations:

* Once again, I want to make something very clear: Any Georgia fan calling for a cleaning of the proverbial house that includes the dismissal of offensive coordinator Mike Bobo… needs to have his head examined.  The Dawgs’ offense — despite having to replace a first-round NFL quarterback and a first-round NFL tailback — are scoring more easily in SEC games than any other team in the league.  Cry about the defense.  Scream about the losses to Florida and Tennessee, but pipe down when it comes to criticizing the SEC’s most efficient offense.

* Too bad Troy isn’t in the SEC or Ryan Mallett and Bobby Petrino’s offense would still be on top of our standings.

* Tennessee’s loss at Ole Miss had more to do with their defense than their offense.

* Florida’s not dominant.  Florida wins ugly.  Florida doesn’t have a quick-strike offense.  Whatever.  The Gators score more easily than all but three other SEC teams.  All in the nation’s toughest defensive conference.  Facts are facts.

* Greg McElroy, meet Julio Jones.  Julio Jones, meet Greg McElroy.  Alabama, meet the Top 5 in SEC pure offensive efficiency.

* Just me, or is anyone else surprised to see Kentucky still in the middle of the pack on offense?  It seems like they should be ranked lower.  Four guys taking snaps on the season, yet Joker Phillips’ gang is still able to move the ball.

* Even after a six touchdown explosion against Tennessee, Ole Miss still ranks 8th in efficiency.  Ya shoulda given Dexter McCluster the ball sooner, Coach Nutt.

* I’m not sure which offense has been more disappointing: LSU’s or South Carolina’s.

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It’s Monday, which means it’s time to check our updated commitment Big Board for the SEC.

Only three schools received commitments last week (Arkansas, Auburn and Tennessee) so there’s not been a lot of movement up and down the chart. 

Tennessee has moved up into a second-place tie with Alabama… and Auburn has widened their lead over Georgia and Florida.

As always, we use the Rivals.com rankings and assign one point for every star Rivals’ hands out.  We also give 0-star athletes a 1-point value because we’re bleeding-heart softies.

Without further ado, here’s how things look less than 12 weeks from National Signing Day:

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Just a few more quick news items.  We’ll dig into some recruiting updates shortly.

1.  The SEC has named its Players of the Week for Week 11 of the season.

2.  This year’s stat sheets prove that championship teams play great defense.

3.  Here’s another excellent weekend wrap column from Paul Gattis of The Huntsville Times.

4.  Chris Low of ESPN.com lists the players who’ve played their way into star status this season.

5.  And who doesn’t love SEC power rankings?

6.  Finally, in basketball news, Arkansas’ Rotnei Clarke (51 points versus Alcorn State) and Kentucky’s Eric Bledsoe (24 points in his debut game) have been named the SEC’s Player of the Week and Freshman of the Week respectively.

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1.  Auburn’s thin linebacking corps came back to haunt them at Georgia on Saturday.

2.  After 11 weeks of football, the Tigers finally get an open date to help heal up before the Iron Bowl.

3.  There’s no word on whether or not linebacker Eltoro Freeman — who suffered a concussion against Georgia — will play against Bama.

4.  Penalties were a big problem for AU on Saturday.

5.  The Tigers will look to fix those mistakes before playing Alabama.

6.  According to this notes column, Gene Chizik was impressed by a gutsy effort from injured tailback Onterio McCalebb.

7.  In basketball news, Jeff Lebo is expecting a loud crowd when his Tigers travel to Missouri State tonight.  (Why is Auburn playing AT Missouri State?)

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Each Monday we like to be the first guys on the block to bring you the television schedule and updated odds for the following weekend’s SEC action.

That way, you can print out the schedule, lose it sometime during the week, and then come back to print it out again… thus driving up our pageviews.

So here are this weekend’s games, where you can see them and what the oddsmakers think of them.  All times are Eastern.


SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21ST


Mississippi State at Arkansas
12:21pm
ESPN Regional Syndicated Package
Arkansas -10.5


Chattanooga at Alabama
12:21pm
ESPN Regional Syndicated Package
No Line


Florida International at Florida
12:30pm
Pay-Per-View
No Line


LSU at Ole Miss
3:30pm
CBS
Ole Miss -3


Vanderbilt at Tennessee
7:00pm
ESPNU
Tennessee -17


Kentucky at Georgia
7:45pm
ESPN2
Georgia -7.5

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1.  The top eight slots in the BCS standings remain the same this week.

2.  Lane Kiffin isn’t calling it a suspension, but the three players arrested last week are barred from all team activities while the coach continues to gather information.

3.  Chris Low of ESPN.com tells you what he learned this weekend…

4.  And he makes his bowl predictions for the SEC.

5.  Stewart Mandel of SI.com wraps the weekend action and talks Alabama, Florida, LSU’s offense, and Dexter McCluster in the process.

6.  Matt Hayes of The Sporting News doesn’t believe Florida should be #1.

And a recruiting story on the homepage to remind you to check out Josh Ward’s Recruiting page…

7.  Brian McLaughlin of The Sporting News writes that Auburn’s making a splash on the recruiting trail.

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ATHENS, Ga. — There were cheers followed by silence followed by elation.
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ATHENS, Ga. — The drama was delayed by timeouts, penalties and even a heart-stopping injury that stopped play for nearly 15 minutes as the game hung in the…
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