Three schools in the SEC chose to swap coaches this off-season (deny it all you like Jay Jacobs, nobody’s buying what you’re selling).

As of right now, it’s impossible to say that any of the schools made an upgrade.  Oh, sure, there would be no guarantees if Auburn, Mississippi State or Tennessee had hired Bill Cowher, either, but you would have at least had an idea of what was to come.

So let’s look at it in terms of track record, winning the press conference, and outlook.



Track Record

Dan Mullen is the hottest offensive coordinator prospect in the country.  He’s never been a head coach before, but he was won big with Urban Meyer at Florida (great talent), Utah (some talent), and Bowling Green (not so great talent).

His track record, arguably is the most impressive of the three new hires because he HASN’T been a head coach before.

Lane Kiffin, had he stayed at Southern Cal, might have been the hottest coaching candidate in America rather than Mullen.  Instead, he went to Oakland and suffered through the madness of Al Davis.  Pete Carroll, Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban and many others failed in the NFL, but a 5-15 head coaching record still frightens fans.

So imagine my surprise when Auburn hired a coach whose record made Kiffin’s look GOOD.  Gene Chizik was a top-notch defensive coordinator at Auburn and at Texas before taking over at Iowa State.

His record with the Cyclones (who get the benefit of a watered-down Big 12 North schedule) was 5-19.  Dan McCarney had five winning seasons in the seven preceding Chizik’s arrival.  I must admit that I don’t know the ins and outs of the Iowa State job, but that’s still a troubling stepback if you go simply by the records.

The man is coming to Auburn with a 10 game losing streak.  Think about that.



Winning the Press Conference

Yeah, yeah, that’s not important.  True enough, once a coach starts winning or losing the initial buzz (or lack thereof) surrounding his hire is forgotten.

But that initial buzz establishes a starting point.  Fans and boosters and ticket buyers, if there’s no initial hype, will have to be “won over” by the new guy.  And that’s not as easy as walking in with everyone already on your side.

Now, fans being fans, by next August, each fanbase that’s gone through a change will believe fully that their school has hired the next Bear Bryant.  That’s just what folks do.  Hope is big in the South… and people will convince themselves that this guy or that guy is the perfect fit.

That’s next August.  As of right now, the Mississippi State fans seem to be the happiest.  One, they’re coming from the lowest point.  Sylvester Croom did not have the success of Phillip Fulmer or Tommy Tuberville.

State fans wanted a change.  They wanted more offense.  They wanted someone young (which is an odd reason to want a coach, by the way).  They got all three and that’s made Starkville a happier place than Knoxville or Auburn.

In East Tennessee, there were still about 25% of the fanbase solidly in Fulmer’s corner when he was let go.  (That 25% is based on empty seats, talk radio and a newspaper poll, so don’t go getting angry with me.)

Those that did want a change, believed they could go get a big name.  Cowher, Jon Gruden, Bob Stoops, at least a Butch Davis.  Not so as it turns out.  And their athletic director set his eyes on Kiffin early on anyway.

As the dust has settled, Kiffin Fever has started to grow amongst the fanbase.  In part because he’s bringing his father along as part of what’s expected to be an all-star staff.  And also, because most Vol fans simply wanted to see something different.

One group that is NOT in Kiffin’s corner are the former players who’d laced ‘em up for Fulmer.  There is a serious case of “oh, yeah, well let’s see what you can do, big boy” attitude amongst former Vols.  With so many of those former Fulmer guys in the Knoxville media, it will be important for Kiffin to win them over early.

The same can be said in Auburn.  Former Auburn stars aren’t exactly praising the hire of Chizik.  And the fanbase at AU was considerably more split on Tuberville’s departure than the UT fanbase was over Fulmer’s.

When the messageboards and talk radio go nuts with almost unanimous negativity, you’ve probably lost the press conference.  When some fans greet the AD and president at the airport with boos, heckles and season ticket cancellations, you’ve probably lost the press conference.

Chizik will say all the right things at his official press conference today, but Auburn, you’ve already lost that one.  Now you’re just hoping to avoid a blowout loss.



The Outlook

Mullen will inherit the lowest expectations, which probably means his outlook is brightest.  Even at State. 

For one thing, the new tv contracts will allow MSU to start catching up in terms of facilities.  That will aid recruiting.  So will the fact that Mississippi produces a great deal of talent per capita.  And so will the fact that Houston Nutt is across the state.

I think Nutt is an excellent coach, but recruiting is not his strong suit.  That leaves a little bit of a crack for Mullen, who can show off championship rings and highlight videos of Tim Tebow to Bulldog prospects.

We’ll see if he can handle the pressures that go along with being an SEC head coach.  And what kind of defensive staff can he put together?  That’s another biggie.

As for Kiffin, his outlook is almost completely up in the air.  On one hand, Pete Carroll says he was a star for him at USC.  He was an ace recruiter for the Trojans, back when it wasn’t easy to recruit folks there.  That’s important, because his recruiting challenge is formidable (though not as bad as some would have you believe).

He’s got the pedigree of a life spent in football, but so did Mike Shula.  And while he’s putting together what’s expected to be an NFL-heavy coaching staff, there’s no telling how things will turn out with a father, a brother-in-law and possibly a brother on the staff.

Kiffin will be held to a very high standard by the Fulmer-backers and by former players.  He’s only 33.  Will he be able to deal with those issues in a politically savvy manner?  Known as “cocky” by those who covered him in LA and Oakland, Kiffin and his confidence will be embraced if he wins… shunned if he loses.

With Chizik, well, give the guy a Chizance.  Mullen, Kiffin and Chizik may all be great or they may all go belly up.  So he deserves a chance.

But things don’t look too promising if you ask me.  His fanbase is fractured.  He’s in a conference that’s a lot tougher than the Big 12 North.  He’s downwind of the Frankenstein-sized monster that Nick Saban is building at Alabama.

And he’s also having to work in what’s by far the most dysfunctional football family in the conference.  And that’s saying something.

Auburn has a serious inferiority complex when it comes to Alabama.  That complex proved too great for one of the SEC’s most succesful coaches… who literally had ONE bad year.  Can Chizik deal with those expectations?

To do so he’ll only need to outshine Saban and Bama in the Iron Bowl, in the regular season, in the post-season, on national signing day and in terms of positive national press.  Sounds easy, enough, huh?

That’s why Chizik looks to be the worst fit at this early stage.

In terms of good fits, Mullen would have to get the nod over Kiffin simply due to the fact that State fans don’t have the expectations of Tennessee fans. 

Win 7 games in Starkville and he’ll be a hero.  Win 7 games in Knoxville and Kiffin will be blasted by many.



So who’s the best hire?

Dan Mullen… followed by Lane Kiffin… followed by Gene Chizik.

But it’s ridiculously early to judge any of these men.  This is only a guess at an early stage.  When all is said and done, all three men may find themselves in the College Football Hall of Fame.

This entry was posted on Monday, December 15th, 2008 at 11:15 am and is filed under Auburn, Homepage . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.