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Ace Reporter: The SEC’s OverAchievers And UnderAchievers

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(Not to be confused with the Little Lebowski Urban Achievers.)

Even Darrin Horn is a bit surprised that South Carolina is off to such a solid start in SEC play.

The Gamecocks were picked to finish fifth in the East Division, but halfway through league play, Horn’s team is 6-3 and trailing only Florida in the East.

Horn admitted he wasn’t sure his team would be in this position, having inherited a team that lost 18 games last year and was 5-11 in SEC play.

“That’s a good question,” Horn said when asked if his team has achieved more than he anticipated.

Of course it has. South Carolina returned four starters, but the team seemed in disarray a year ago, losing by 33 points at Tennessee late in the year. But Horn’s uptempo style and fresh attitude have worked wonders.

“All the players have played above what they played in the past,” Horn said.

That’s a credit to Horn and his players. And it’s the reason the Gamecocks are talking NCAA, not NIT.

LSU coach Trent Johnson wasn’t sure about his team, either. The Tigers played a weak non-conference schedule — ranked 324 out of 344 teams — and opened SEC play with a loss at Alabama.

The Tigers haven’t lost since, ripping off seven consecutive wins to take over first-place in the regular-season race.

LSU starts three seniors, a fourth-year junior and a sophomore and has had the luxury of putting the same lineup on the court for 23 consecutive games.

Those are the feel-good stories in the SEC.

On the flip side, two SEC coaches have already been fired, nine teams have at least seven losses, only three teams are in the top 50 of the RPI (according to collegerpi.com) and just two teams are ranked among the top 80 in strength of schedule.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the SEC teams that have overachieved, underachieved and done about what’s been expected, based on the media preseason poll.



The Overachievers

1. LSU — While I picked LSU to win the West, I didn’t expect the Tigers to be 19-4, to win at Tennessee and to lead the whole SEC at this point. Point guard Bo Spencer has been solid, Marcus Thornton has been more judicious with his shot selection and Brian Johnson has been an inside road block for opponents’ offenses with his 57 blocked shots. Tasmin Mitchell has come back with a vengeance from his season-ending injury.

2. South Carolina — Point guard Devon Downey has been outstanding, but Zam Fredrick, Mike Holmes and Dominique Archie have played well. Horn thinks Archie is one of the SEC’s most underrated players. “It doesn’t matter what his numbers are,” Horn said of Archie, “he impacts the game in a major way. He does so many things.”

3. Mississippi State — The Bulldogs, picked fourth in the West, went to a four-guard lineup in late December and the move has paid off brilliantly for Rick Stansbury. The Bulldogs are shooting an SEC-best 41 percent in SEC games and lead the league with 10.3 made treys per game. They made a school-record 16 threes last week against Arkansas. State’s quickness has been tough for opponents to combat and Jarvis Varnado has been an eraser inside with 112 blocks.

4. Ole Miss — The Rebels are 4-5 in SEC play despite losing three starting guards to injury. After an early 32-point home loss to LSU, coach Andy Kennedy’s team beat Kentucky in Oxford and Mississippi State in Starkville. Freshman point guard Terrico White has been one of the SEC’s pleasant surprises.



On Target

1. Florida — The Gators have a one-game lead in the loss column in the East. Florida’s 19 wins are tied for most in the SEC but the strength of schedule has been weak. The Gators have one of the league’s most efficient offenses, but a porous defense will spell trouble down the stretch. Nick Calathes is the best passer in the league.

2. Auburn — The Tigers were picked fifth in the West and that’s about where they’re headed. A win over Tennessee was big. Auburn starts three seniors and two juniors and should actually be better and more consistent. Jeff Lebo is on the hot seat.

3. Kentucky — After a 5-0 SEC start, the Wildcats had dreams of going unbeaten in league play. Then came a three-game losing streak as opponents figured out how to defend the lethal 1-2 punch of Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson. Kentucky continues to have problems at point guard.

4. Vanderbilt — The Commodores have 15 wins but they’re off the radar screen when it comes to NCAA tourney consideration. Vandy led the nation in field-goal defense through mid-January but the defense was exposed by Tennessee and Florida. Vandy has NIT written all over it.

5. Arkansas — The Hogs were overachievers after starting the season 12-1 and beating two top 10 teams at home. Then came SEC play and a 1-7 start. The Hogs have been a horrific 3-point shooting team in league play and inexperience has cost them some close games down the stretch. John Pelphrey’s team was picked last in the West.



The Underachievers

1. Tennessee — The Vols were a preseason Top 10 team and were expected to repeat as SEC regular-season champions. Instead, Bruce Pearl’s team has been inconsistent from 3-point range and on defense. And a press that was fearsome Pearl’s first three seasons is all but nonexistent. The Vols lost at home to Kentucky and LSU, hurting the team’s chances to wave another SEC banner.

2. Georgia — The Bulldogs weren’t supposed to be that good, but they weren’t supposed to be this bad. Dennis Felton hoped the team would ride the momentum of last season’s SEC Tournament title to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth. Didn’t happen. Felton got fired and the Dawgs are 0-8 in the SEC and riding the school’s longest losing streak since 1972-73.

3. Alabama — Shame on you, media, for picking the Crimson Tide to win the West. You must have felt Ronald Steele would return to his sophomore form. Not a chance. He bailed out on a sinking ship, Mark Gottfried got fired and the team is reeling with a 3-6 SEC mark, 13-10 overall.
 


SEC teams dance for position 

The SEC has six teams in the running for NCAA Tournament bids — LSU, Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky.

With the SEC ranked sixth among conferences in two different RPIs, it will interesting to see if the league gets four, five or six teams in the 65-team field.

While Tennessee (14-8) has the fewest wins of the six, it has the highest RPI (21) and the toughest strength of schedule (#2). Florida has a #30 RPI but is #100 in SOS. The Gamecocks are #43 in RPI and #82 in SOS. LSU is #52 in RPI and #117 in SOS. Kentucky is #74 in RPI and #91 in SOS. Mississippi State is #79 in RPI and #81 in SOS.

Ole Miss, which would have to reel off about five straight wins to join the conversation, is #63 in RPI and #18 in SOS. Vanderbilt, despite a 15-8 record, is just #93 in RPI, #104 in SOS. Arkansas is #98 in RPI, #101 in SOS. Auburn is #102 in RPI, #84 in SOS. Alabama is #137 in RPI, #87 in SOS. And Georgia is #214 in RPI, #98 in SOS.

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