It’s too early to project how many SEC teams will make the NCAA Tournament field in men’s basketball.

After all, a year ago at this time, you would have said Kentucky had little chance. The Wildcats lost at home to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, but then went 12-4 in a watered down league to earn a postseason berth.

But based on early returns, the SEC hasn’t been very impressive on the court. Tennessee is the only team ranked in the Top 50 of the RPI, and the Vols are #25.

Florida is #58, followed by 67 Kentucky, 82 Vanderbilt, 87 Ole Miss and 88 Auburn. Ole Miss is sure to fall out of the Top 100 after losing point guard Chris Warren and two other perimeter starters.

That’s just six SEC teams in the Top 100.

That means six others are not in the Top 100, with Alabama at 220 despite a 7-3 record. LSU is 10-1 but only 120 in the RPI because of a weak schedule.

The SEC is ranked #7 among conferences, trailing the Big Ten, the Big East, the Pac-10, the ACC, the Big 12 and the Atlantic 10 (in no particular order).

The SEC is only 3-18 against teams in the Top 50 of the RPI. The wins: Tennessee over Georgetown, Auburn over George Washington and Kentucky over West Virginia.
           
While Tennessee has a win over ranked Marquette and Auburn has a nice victory against Virginia, Marquette and Virginia are not in the Top 50 of the RPI.

With the majority of non-conference play over in a week, it’s going to be hard for some SEC teams - and the conference as a whole - to climb out of this treacherous hole.



Only 4 Teams Have Clearly Improved

This marks the second consecutive season that the SEC is down.

In 2007, Florida won the national championship, Tennessee and Vanderbilt reached the Sweet 16 and eight teams won at least 20 games.

Last season, Florida didn’t make the NCAA field, only Tennessee reached the Sweet 16, and six teams won 20 games. Only Tennessee and Mississippi State were clearly better. Vanderbilt won four more games but had the same SEC record and lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament by 20 points to Siena. Arkansas won two more games. Every other team was about the same or worse.

Entering SEC play, it appears Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina and LSU will be improved over last season. Auburn and Alabama might be better. The others will be about the same or worse.  
          


By The Numbers
 
Mississippi State leads the nation in blocked shots per game (10-2) and Bulldog Jarvis Varnado is first at 6.0 blocks per game. Kentucky is second in blocks (8.3) and LSU is fourth.
           
South Carolina is second in the country in steals per game (11.8) with Devon Downey #3 at 3.4 steals. Florida is eighth in steals (10.5).
           
Kentucky ’s Jodie Meeks is the nation’s #6 scorer (24.1) and the Wildcats’ Patrick Patterson is fourth in field goal percentage (.685).
           
LSU is fifth in field goal defense (34.9) while Vanderbilt is 10th (36.0), Mississippi State 12th (36.2), Kentucky 16th (36.7) and Alabama 10th (37.0). Alabama is 12th in 3-point defense (26.9).
           
LSU is first in rebound margin (13.3) with Arkansas third (12.4).
           
Tennessee is eighth in scoring (84.1).
           
Florida and Tennessee are tied for 10th in assists (18.3).
           
Arkansas’ Michael Washington is 10th in rebounds per game (11.1).
           
Nick Calathes of Florida is fifth in assists (7.1).
           
 

Free Throws

Alabama has held seven opponents to less than 40 percent shooting.
 
Arkansas has started 8-1 three consecutive seasons; the Hogs were 9-1 entering the Oklahoma game December 30th.

Florida’s Alex Tyus has had a seven-game stretch in which he averaged 16.4 points, 7.9 rebounds and shot 65 percent from the field. He averaged 4.3 points and 2.6 rebounds as a freshman.

Jodie Meeks’ 46 points were the most by a Kentucky player since Dan Issel’s 47 in 1970. Meeks has the top three scoring games in the SEC this season.

Ole Miss has just nine healthy scholarship players, four of them guards.

Mississippi State sophomore guard Ravern Johnson has made more 3-pointers (27) than he attempted all of last season.

South Carolina (9-1) combined for just 28 wins the last two seasons.

Tennessee has started nine different players and had six different starting lineups.

Vanderbilt is 23-2 when junior guard Jermaine Beal scores in double figures. 

At about midseason, I realized the SEC was down in football.
           
My first hint was poor quarterback play. Eight teams started at least two quarterbacks, and three started three. Only three offenses in the league ranked among the top 45 in the nation and six rank among the bottom 25.
           
My second hint was the league’s non-conference record. The SEC was 6-9 against other BCS teams and suffered losses to Louisiana Tech and Wyoming.
            
My third hint was the coaching fires. Auburn, Tennessee and Mississippi State were so bad, they got rid of Tommy Tuberville, Phillip Fulmer and Sly Croom. Those three teams won 27 games in 2007. They won 14 this past season.
           
Moreover, only three teams were appreciably better this season than last: Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss.

LSU went from 12-2 and a national championship to 7-5. Tennessee went from 10 wins to five. Auburn went from nine wins to five. Mississippi State went from eight wins to four.

Seven teams have at least two fewer wins going into the bowl season.
           
When more than half the teams in your conference are worse than the year before, your league is down.
           
Based on records and rankings and quarterback play, I think the Big 12 and ACC were better than the SEC this season.
           
But the SEC, year in and year out the best football conference in the nation, can gain a measure of respect based on bowl performances. It’s got two matches against Big 12, Big Ten and ACC teams.
           
And with the right results, the SEC could win a third consecutive national title and finish 1-2 in the final polls for the second year in a row. Last year’s 1-2 finish was a first. The SEC had teams finish 2-3-5 in 1959, 1-4-5 in 1961, 2-3 in 1995 and 1-3 in 2006.
           
The SEC has won three consecutive AP national titles once (1978-80) and gone back-to-back three other times (1957-58, 1964-65, 2006-07). And from 2003 to present, the SEC has won three national crowns with a shot at a fourth, and had a 13-0 team that wasn’t given a chance to play for the crystal football.
           
Many times, the bowl result isn’t about matchups. It’s about which teams cares the most. Which team is excited about playing. Which team has something to prove.
           
Almost 10 years ago, Kansas State was left out of a BCS bowl and pouted all the way to a bowl defeat. In 2003, Tennessee felt it should have made a BCS bowl and played uninspired against Clemson in a Peach Bowl loss.
           
That’s what makes predicting bowls a tricky business.
           
Here’s my forecast on how the SEC will fare in bowl games.
           


Music City: Boston College (9-4) v. Vanderbilt (6-6)
           
Boston College played for the ACC title. The Eagles have been the winningest program in the ACC over the past five years. Vanderbilt had a strong 5-0 start, but limped to the finish line, losing six of seven, with defeats to two four-win teams — Mississippi State and Duke. The Commodores have the SEC’s worst offense and fourth-worst defense.

Boston College 27-13.
           


Chick Fil A Bowl: Georgia Tech (9-3) v. LSU (7-5)
           
In two games against those overrated SEC defenses, Georgia Tech averaged 41.5 points and over 420 rushing yards. The Yellow Jackets scored 21 or fewer points in five ACC games. LSU appeared to pack it in after an overtime loss to Alabama, allowing 31 points to Troy, Ole Miss and Arkansas. Plus, the Tigers will start a true freshman quarterback. LSU has more talent, Tech more desire.

Georgia Tech 38-28.
           


Outback Bowl: Iowa (8-4) v. South Carolina (7-5)
           
The Hawkeyes’ Shonn Greene won the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s best running back. Iowa won five of its last six, including a huge upset over Penn State. All four losses were by five or fewer points. The Gamecocks allowed 87 points in their last two games and their top tackler, safety Emmanuel Cook, is academically ineligible. Steve Spurrier questioned the desire of some players down the stretch.

Iowa 24-20.
           


Capital One Bowl: Michigan State (9-3) v. Georgia (9-3)
           
The Spartans’ Javon Ringer was a Doak Walker finalist. But MSU lost to Ohio State and Penn State by a combined 94-25. This might be the last game for Georgia quarterback Matt Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno. Georgia went from preseason No. 1 to out of the top 15. The Bulldogs want to make up for a disappointing regular season.

Georgia 34-20.
           


Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (11-1) v. Ole Miss (8-4)
           
Will the 7th-ranked Red Raiders and be down about not going to a BCS bowl? Or will Mike Leach and Graham Harrell be determined to ring up 40 against an SEC team? The Rebels are on a roll, having won five straight. Ole Miss had the SEC’s worst pass defense until playing Mississippi State. The last time the Red Raiders played an SEC team in a bowl, Alabama shut down Leach’s attack (13-10).

Texas Tech 34-30.
           


Liberty Bowl: East Carolina (9-4) v. Kentucky (6-6)
           
The Pirates were resilient in winning Conference USA over high-powered Tulsa. Coach Skip Holtz’s team opened the season with impressive wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia before losing three straight, only to regroup. Kentucky went from the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense to the 40s. Losing athletic Randall Cobb will hurt an already inept offense.

East Carolina 24-17.
           


Sugar Bowl: Utah (12-0) v. Alabama (12-1)
           
Four years removed from Urban Meyer, the Utes racked up a terrific season, led by quarterback Brian Johnson. Utah beat two 10-win teams (TCU and BYU), a team that beat Southern Cal (Oregon State), an eight-win team (Air Force) and a team that’s already won a bowl game (Colorado State). Alabama won’t let losing the SEC title game deter from a marvelous season. The Tide should be able to power through Utah’s defense.

Alabama 27-17.
           


BCS Championship Game: Oklahoma (12-1) v. Florida (12-1)
           
Oklahoma has a fantastic team. It has scored at least 60 points in five straight games. It scored at least 50 in four others. It beat two 10-win teams in non-conference (Cincinnati and TCU). Its defense is much better than the numbers suggest because many of the points allowed have come with the game no longer in doubt. Florida led the SEC in scoring with 44 points per game. Oklahoma has faced better passing attacks, but not a team with Florida’s overall offensive speed.

The Gators went from worst to first in the SEC in pass-defense efficiency. Oklahoma is without its best running back. Florida’s Percy Harvin could play but might not be 100 percent. You won’t find a better matchup of quarterbacks. Both offenses are explosive, both defenses solid. Florida gets the nod on special teams.

Florida 35-31.

Should an assistant coach who has taken a head coaching job with another school stay with his former team through the bowl game?
           
Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen has decided to coach the Gators in the national championship game against Oklahoma on January 8th, rather than take the controls at Mississippi State in mid-December.
           
LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini coached the Tigers in the national championship game last year against Ohio State, rather than jump right away to Nebraska.
           
But Tennessee offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe left the Vols before the national title game to coach Ole Miss in December 1998.
           
What’s the best route to take?
           
Each situation is different.
           
Cutcliffe was hired by Ole Miss in early December. The Rebels were headed to a bowl game after Tommy Tuberville exited for Auburn. So, Cutcliffe left Knoxville to coach the Rebels for two weeks in December to prepare for a bowl game. That gave him a jump on preparing for his first season in Oxford.
           
In the case of Mullen, Mississippi State is not going to a bowl.
           
In the case of Pellini last season, Nebraska was not bowl bound.
           
So the advantage of Mullen and Pellini taking over immediately at their new schools was minimized.
           
You can still assemble a staff and do some recruiting while helping your former team prepare for a major bowl. Remember, much of the bowl season is a dead period in recruiting.
           
But if you’re a fan of Mississippi State, are you upset that your newly hired coach is coaching another team until January? Do you feel he’s getting behind on recruiting? Are you bothered that he’s wearing two hats instead of your favorite team’s hat?
           
Or, does the possibility of your new coach winning a national championship (in the case of Mullen, a second national title) further enhance his credentials?
           
If your new coach is on the national stage for a few weeks, if he’s winning another championship, maybe it’s worth the wait. Maybe it helps recruiting in the long run. And maybe it helps your current players buy in just a little bit more.
 


Tennessee’s Hits Sacrifice Fly With New Hire
 
           
ESPN analyst Jim Donnan isn’t fond of successful coaches being fired.
           
Maybe that’s because of the way he got axed at Georgia. Donnan won 35 games and all four bowls in his final four seasons with the Bulldogs, only to be fired.
           
Donnan said he has a great deal of respect for former Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer, and Donnan said UT athletic director Mike Hamilton better not hit a single, double, triple or home run with Fulmer’s replacement. He better hit a grand slam, Donnan told a quarterback club last month.
           
Asked if UT hit a grand slam by hiring Lane Kiffin, Donnan said: “It was a sacrifice fly.”
           
Bringing Monte Kiffin as the defensive coordinator ups the swing to a double, Donnan said.
           
Donnan, like many others, does not believe Tennessee or Auburn made an upgrade in coaching.
           
Time will tell. But nowadays, coaches don’t get as much time as they used to. Two decades ago, a coach got five years to build his program. That went to four. Then to three with the ousters of Ron Zook and Ty Willingham and Ed Orgeron, among others.
           
Then Army, of all places, fired a coach after TWO seasons.
             


New Coach, Scheme Can Help A Quarterback
 
It will be hard for Monte Kiffin to match the defensive production at Tennessee of former coordinator John Chavis, just as it will be hard for Chizik to make the defensive numbers at Auburn under Tuberville.
           
Both programs need an offensive spark, not a defensive overhaul.
           
Before last season, Auburn and Tennessee hired offensive coordinators from smaller schools to revamp offenses that had been in place for years. The experiment in both cases was a miserable failure.
           
Much of the blame was placed on poor quarterback play. But that doesn’t mean the quarterbacks at Auburn and Tennessee can’t be productive with a different coach and a different system.
           
For example, Auburn’s Al Borges help turn Jason Campbell into a first-round draft pick in 2004.
           
David Cutcliffe tutored Erik Ainge into two solid seasons at Tennessee. Ainge was drafted by the Jets and made the team.
           
Shane Mathews was buried on the depth chart at Florida before Steve Spurrier tutored him into being the two-time SEC Player of the Year.
           
Charlie Weiss turned Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn into a first-round pick.
           
Norm Chow turned USC’s Carson Palmer into a Heisman Trophy winner.
           
Can Chizik get production out of Kodi Burns or Chris Todd?
           
Can Lane Kiffin mold Jonathan Crompton, Nick Stephens or B.J. Coleman into a successful player?
           
That will be the key to immediate turnarounds at both Auburn and Tennessee. 

Few would argue that the SEC is traditionally better in football than basketball.

Even fewer would argue that the SEC traditionally has better football coaches than basketball coaches.

Going into this past football season, five SEC football coaches have won a national championship.

One SEC basketball coach had won a national championship.

And the pay scale is tilted heavily in favor of football.

The average annual pay for the top seven SEC football coaches entering this season was more than $3 million.

Nick Saban, Les Miles, Urban Meyer all make over $3.5 million. Mark
Richt and Bobby Petrino each make over $2.8 million. Phillip Fulmer
averaged $3 million but his successor, Lane Kiffin, comes in making $2
million the first year. Tommy Tuberville made $2.8 million last year.

The average annual pay for the top seven SEC basketball coaches is less
than $2 million. Only Billy Donovan, Billy Gillispie and Bruce Pearl
make over $2 million. In fact, Donovan is the only hoops coach who
ranks among the top eight of football salaries.

We’re going to compare the football and basketball coaches at each SEC
school. For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll take the football coach
from this past season and last season’s basketball coach.

Here’s a look:



Alabama: Saban just won
national coach of the year honors after guiding Alabama to a 12-0
record before losing the SEC Championship. He won two SEC titles and a
national championship at LSU. He is one of the top five coaches in
college football.

Gottfried has had two winning SEC records in 10 years. He has won just
12 SEC games in the past two years combined. He has one SEC title and
he’s on the hot seat.

Advantage: Football.



Auburn: Tommy Tuberville won or
shared the West Division four times in five years, captured one SEC
title and turned in a 13-0 season. Against the other elite SEC teams,
he had the best record of any SEC coach over the past eight years.

Jeff Lebo has had three 4-12 SEC records in four years. He hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament and he’s clearly on the hot seat.

Advantage: Football



Arkansas: Bobby Petrino went
5-7 in his first year with the Hogs, inheriting a weak team from
Houston Nutt. But Petrino did finish strong, beating LSU, and he won 41
games in four years at Louisville.

John Pelphrey was 23-12 in his first year at Arkansas and won an NCAA
tourney game with a talented roster. He made the NCAA field once in
five years at South Alabama. 

Advantage: Football.



Florida: Meyer has won two SEC
titles and a national championship. He was successful at Bowling Green
and Utah before going to Florida. He could win his second national
crown in three years.

Donovan has won two national championships. He has won 20 games 10
years in a row and had a streak of nine consecutive NCAA Tournament
appearances snapped last season.

Advantage: Push.



Georgia: Mark Richt has won two
SEC Championships, was No. 2 in the nation in 2007 and had a streak of
four straight seasons in the top 10. No current SEC coach has achieved
that.

Dennis Felton’s job was on jeopardy until the Bulldogs (4-12 in SEC
play) won the SEC Tournament and made the NCAA field for the first
time. But Felton remains in trouble if his team doesn’t do well this
season.

Advantage: Football.



Kentucky: Rich Brooks guided
the Wildcats to three straight bowls for the first time since 1949-51
when a coach named Bear Bryant patrolled the sidelines in Lexington.
Brooks also had back-to-back eight-win seasons.

Gillispie had great success at UTEP and Texas A&M, orchestrating
remarkable turnarounds. In his first year, Kentucky, after losing at
home to Gardner Webb and San Diego, went 12-4 in the SEC.

Advantage: Basketball.



LSU: Les Miles won 34 games, a
national title and an SEC Championship in his first three seasons. The
Tigers slumped to 7-5 this past season.

John Brady took the Tigers to the 2006 Final Four but he got fired two
seasons later after his team had back-to-back SEC records of 5-11 and
6-10.

Advantage: Football.



Ole Miss: Houston Nutt did a
terrific job in his first season at Ole Miss, guiding the Rebels to an
8-4 record, the Cotton Bowl and the lone victory this season over
top-ranked Florida. Ole Miss won six of its last seven games.

Andy Kennedy was named SEC Coach of the Year his rookie season in
Oxford, but the Rebels didn’t make the NCAA Tournament and he is two
games under .500 in his first two seasons at Ole Miss.

Advantage: Football



Mississippi State: Sly Croom
was the 2007 SEC Coach of the Year when his Bulldogs won eight games,
but his team dropped to four wins and he resigned under fire. Croom was
20 games under .500 in five seasons.

Rick Stansbury is one of the SEC’s most underrated coaches. Folks, it’s
not easy to recruit to Starkville. Stansbury has been to five NCAA
tournaments in the past seven years and he’s won or shared the West
Division four times in 10 seasons as head coach.

Advantage: Basketball



South Carolina

Steve Spurrier is 28-21 and four games below .500 in SEC play in four
years at South Carolina. But his body of work is impressive, especially
at Florida and at Duke. He’s not the coach he used to be, but his teams
are still capable of pulling big upsets.

Dave Odom failed to have a winning SEC record in seven seasons at the
Gamecocks coach. He won two NIT titles but got into the NCAA field only
once.

Advantage: Football



Tennessee: Phillip Fulmer won
two SEC titles and a national championship, but he went 10 years
without either, and after a second losing season in four years, he was
forced out. He was 100 games over .500, no small accomplishment in the
SEC.

Bruce Pearl has done a terrific job in three seasons. He won the SEC
regular-season outright for the first time in 41 years, he won the 2006
East Division over eventual national champion Florida, and he’s
finished ahead of Kentucky three straight seasons. Pearl still has a
job. Fulmer doesn’t.

Advantage: Basketball



Vanderbilt: Bobby Johnson is
recognized as one of the SEC’s better coaches. You wonder how many
people could win as many games at Vanderbilt as he has. Yet, in seven
years, Johnson has yet to go .500 in SEC play, and if Vandy doesn’t win
its bowl game, it will finish with a losing record for the 26th
consecutive year.

Kevin Stallings went to one NCAA Tournament in his first seven seasons
in Nashville, but the Commodores have done better of late, making the
Sweet 16 in 2004 and 2007.

Advantage: Basketball



If you’re keeping score, that’s 7-4-1 in favor of football — and a couple of those nods in basketball are debatable.

Triple doubles in the SEC are about as rare as perfect games in Major League Baseball.
           
You just don’t see many of them.
           
The SEC has 10 on record. We say “on record” because some stats, like assists and blocked shots, weren’t kept by the NCAA or some schools until around 1970.
           
Still, to have only 10 on the books in the past 38 years seems like a remarkably low number. But a triple-double — double figures in any combination of scoring, rebounding, assists, blocked shots or steals — is a unique accomplishment.
           
Tennessee’s Tyler Smith did it last week with 12 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. It was the first triple-double in school history. Not Bernard King nor Ernie Grunfeld nor Allan Houston nor Dale Ellis was able to accomplish the feat.
           
Two other active SEC players have recorded triple doubles.
           
Florida’s Nick Calathes did it against Creighton in March of last season: 11 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists.
           
Mississippi State’s pogo-stick jumper Jarvis Varnado also did it earlier this year — on January 15th — against Kentucky. Varnado had 10 points, 12 rebounds and 10 blocks.
           
The Bulldogs have had three players reach the milestone. Lawrence Roberts had 18 points, 11 rebounds and 12 assists in 2004 against Nicholls State. Jamont Gordon had 15 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists in 2007 against Vanderbilt.
           
Florida’s Corey Brewer turned the trick in 2005 with 15 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists against Jacksonville.
           
Only two SEC players have recorded two triple-doubles: Alabama’s Roy Rogers and LSU’s Shaquille O’Neal.
           
Rogers did his thing one week apart. He had 15 points, 15 rebounds and 12 blocks against Georgia in 1996 and seven days later, he had 27 points, 10 rebounds and 10 blocks against LSU.
           
LSU’s sports information department said O’Neal had four, but they didn’t have the numbers.
           
One of the most unlikely players to score a triple-double was Chuck Eidson of South Carolina. Remember him? South Carolina State might. Eidson had 25 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists in 2002.
           
Chris Mills got Kentucky’s only triple-double in 2008 against Austin Peay: 19 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists.
           
Alvin Robertson got a triple-double before Arkansas joined the SEC. Against Texas in 1984, Robertson garnered 23 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists.
           
Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt have yet to have a player record a triple-double.
           
Considering assists, steals and blocks weren’t exactly well kept stats before 1970, you’ve got to think more than just 10 SEC players have managed the feat. Surely Cotton Nash or Dan Issel at Kentucky, Bailey Howell at Mississippi State, Neal Walk at Florida, Tom Boerwinkle at Tennessee or Bob Pettit or Pete Maravich at LSU turned the trick.
           
There just aren’t any official records to support that.
          


Melick Believes Tuberville Fired
 
Usually what momma says goes. And Momma Tuberville says her son Tommy was fired at Auburn. He didn’t resign, she claims.
           
Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs said he asked Tuberville three times to stay aboard, but Tuberville said no.
           
Ray Melick, columnist for the Birmingham News, believes Tuberville was fired.
           
Melick said Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs “isn’t always accessible to the media and when he is, he’s not always forthright.”
                       


Alabama Fans Hot After Tickets
 
Few coaches have ever milked as much out of their talent as Nick Saban did at Alabama. He took a team with good — not great — talent and went 12-0 before losing a terrific game against Florida in the SEC Championship.
           
Even though Alabama had one of the nation’s youngest teams with just nine scholarship seniors, don’t expect a repeat. The Tide will lose three offensive linemen — provided junior tackle Andre Smith turns pro — and senior quarterback John Parker Wilson, who made enough key plays at key moments to help the Crimson Tide to a #1 ranking through the end of November.
           
Alabama’s turnaround from a 7-6 record last year has fans ecstatic. Melick told me that Alabama’s ticket manager believes the Tide could have sold 100,000 tickets to the SEC Championship Game.

Alabama should easily sell out the Sugar Bowl allotment of 15,900. Fans might request another 20,000.
           
Alabama hasn’t played in the New Orleans bowl since defeating Miami for the 1992 national championship. The Tide played in five Sugar Bowls in seven years (1974-80).
 


SEC Basketball Notes
 
* Arkansas freshman point guard Courtney Fortson has been one of the league’s biggest surprises. Fortson leads the Hogs with 14.7 points and 5.7 assists and is shooting 51 percent from the field.
           
* The first time Mississippi State trailed at home this season, the basket was scored by an Alabama State player named (I’m not making this up) Chief Kickingstallionsims.
           
* Georgia scored less than 65 points in six of its first eight games, yet a win over Virginia Tech boosted the Bulldogs’ record to 6-3.
           
* Auburn lost to Dayton when the Flyers set an NCAA record for 3-point ineptitude, going 0-for-24. Dayton missed 35 consecutive treys bridging three games.
           
* The SEC’s leading scorer so far is Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks (22.9). Meeks has the two highest scoring games in the league at 39 and 37 points.
           
* Ole Miss is the only team with two 20-point scorers — Florida transfer David Huertas (21.4) and Chris Warren (20.4).
           
* Florida was 104-0 under Billy Donovan when holding an opponent to less than 60 points… until a 57-55 loss to Florida State.
           
* Which SEC team has the longest current winning streak? LSU, which is off to a 6-0 start against a weak schedule. By the way, LSU has won 69 straight games against other Louisiana schools, dating back 20 years.
           
* Alabama’s Ronald Steele, who missed last season due to knee surgeries, is playing OK. He’s averaging 13.7 points and shooting 88.6 percent from the foul line.
           
* Vanderbilt went undefeated at home last year but the Commodores are 2-2 at Memorial Gym thus far, losing to an Illinois-Chicago team that hit 12 of 16 from 3-point range.
           
* Mississippi State’s Jarvis Varnado, who led the nation in blocked shots last year, is averaging 6.6 blocks this season. He has 53 blocks, 34 more than any other SEC player.
           
* The SEC has some rather embarrassing losses thus far: VMI over Kentucky, Mercer over Auburn and Alabama, Illinois-Chicago over Vanderbilt, Missouri State over Arkansas, Northern Iowa over Auburn, Loyola Chicago over Georgia, and College of Charleston over South Carolina.
 
          

Florida coach Urban Meyer did an outstanding job with his football team.
           
He turned the worst pass defense in the SEC into the league’s best. He tweaked the offense to limit Tim Tebow’s carries and hits. He found a way to lead the SEC in rushing by 30 yards per game thanks to speedy ball carriers.
           
And he made special teams a weapon.
           
Florida has blocked eight kicks this season and has 45 in Meyer’s tenure as head coach. The Gators have an outstanding return game. They’ve scored seven non-offensive touchdowns this season.
           
All of that contributed to Florida leading the SEC in scoring (45 points per game) and winning the SEC Championship despite losing eight players to season-ending knee injuries, including valuable tight end Cornelius Ingram, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in August.
           
Meyer has done a terrific job this season, but he’s not my SEC Coach of the Year.
           
Houston Nutt took an Ole Miss team that was 0-8 in SEC play last season and went 5-3 to finish second in the West Division.
           
The Rebels averaged 45 points in their last three games, upset LSU in Baton Rouge and routed rival Mississippi State 45-0.
           
Nutt turned players with a defeatist attitude into a Cotton Bowl team that won five in a row and didn’t lose a game by more than seven points. Furthermore, Ole Miss beat the last two national championship teams on their home fields (Florida and LSU).
           
But Nutt is not my SEC Coach of the Year.
           
Nick Saban inherited an Alabama team that went 7-6 in his first season and didn’t have a player drafted in the NFL.
           
Saban had more talent when he took over at LSU in 2000 than he did at Alabama. And this Crimson Tide team is one of the youngest in the nation with just nine seniors.
           
Yet, the Tide rolled through the regular season at 12-0 and ranked #1. It outscored opponents in the first quarter 120-10 before the SEC title game, an indication the team was ready to play. It was underdog to Clemson and Georgia yet won those games convincingly.
           
Alabama doesn’t have as much talent as Florida or Georgia or LSU.
           
But the players bought into what Saban was selling, and Saban has restored Bama’s program to national prominence.
           
Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said before this season he wasn’t sure if another SEC team could go through the league undefeated like his Tigers did in 2004. Alabama came close, thanks to a brilliant coaching job by Saban.
           
Saban is my SEC Coach of the Year.
           


Who is the SEC Offensive Player of the Year?
           
Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno led the league in rushing and touchdowns (16). He is a finalist for the Doak Walker Award. He’s a whirling dervish with a great spin move, wonderful vision and great balance.
           
Georgia’s Matt Stafford led the SEC in passing yards per game and total offense. He is projected to be a top five NFL draft pick if he bypasses his senior season.
           
But my pick is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner: Tim Tebow.
           
Tebow’s numbers are down from a year ago, when he led Florida in rushing and accounted for a stunning 55 touchdowns. This season, he has accounted for 40 scores, led the league in passing efficiency, helped his team top the SEC in scoring and total offense and carried the Percy Harvin-less Gators on his shoulders to the SEC title.




The SEC Defensive Player of the Year?
           
Alabama nose tackle Terrence Cody made a tremendous difference in his team’s defense. He is the best run stopper in the nation. He commands double-team blocks. He’s the main reason Alabama leads the league in run defense and is third in the nation.
           
Vanderbilt’s D.J. Moore is one of the nation’s most underrated players. He is tied for third in the nation with six interceptions and is fourth in the SEC in passes defended. He also caught two touchdown passes and ranks 12th in the nation in punt returns.
           
South Carolina outside linebacker Eric Norwood leads the SEC in sacks and Ole Miss defensive tackle Peria Jerry is second in tackles for loss.
           
But my Defensive Player of the Year is Tennessee sophomore safety Eric Berry. He leads the nation with seven interceptions, two of which he returned for touchdowns. He holds the SEC record for interception return yards in a season and career. He is 14 yards shy of the national record for career interception return yards. He’s also a vicious hitter. Just ask Moreno.




The Freshman of the Year is a tough call.
           
Kentucky’s Randall Cobb started the second half of the season at quarterback and helped spark an anemic offense. He accounted for more than 1,000 yards with his passing, running and punt returns.
           
But the two most deserving candidates are wide receivers: A.J. Green at Georgia and Julio Jones at Alabama.
           
Green led the SEC with 80.6 receiving yards per game on 51 catches. He scored seven touchdowns.
           
Jones, who had five catches for more than 100 yards in the SEC Championship game, was fourth in receiving yards per game (62.5) and sixth in receptions per game (3.91) before the Florida game. He has four touchdown catches.
           
But Jones was more valuable to Alabama than Green was to Georgia because the Bulldogs have other good receivers. Bama doesn’t. Jones’ presence and production helped open up Alabama’s run game and make defenses respect the pass.
           
My vote: Julio Jones.
           


Most Surprising Teams: Alabama followed by Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.
           
Most Disappointing Teams: Tennessee and Auburn followed by LSU.
           
Most Underrated Coaching Job: Bobby Petrino at Arkansas.
           
Most Underrated Player: Glen Coffee at Alabama followed by running back-receiver Dexter McCluster at Ole Miss and cornerback Trevard Lindley of Kentucky.
           
Most Overrated Player: Defensive tackle Ricky Jean-Francois at LSU.
           
Best Former Walk-on: Safety Rashad Johnson of Alabama.
           
Best Offensive Line: Alabama
           
Worst Offensive Line: South Carolina
           
Best Backfield: Florida
           
Worst Backfield: Vanderbilt
           
Best Defensive Line: Alabama
           
Worst Defensive Line: Arkansas
           
Best Linebackers: Florida
           
Worst Linebackers: Arkansas
           
Best Secondary: Florida and South Carolina
           
Worst Secondary: LSU and Ole Miss
           
Best special teams: Florida
           
Worst special teams: Kentucky
           
Best play call: Ole Miss fake punt vs. LSU
           
Worst play call: South Carolina lateral on kickoff vs. Florida
           
Best hire: Houston Nutt at Ole Miss followed by defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson at South Carolina
           
Worst hire: tie between offensive coordinators Dave Clawson at Tennessee and Tony Franklin at Auburn
           
Best game: SEC Championship game between Florida and Alabama.
          

When is the best time to fire a football coach?
           
What is the best way to fire a football coach?
           
The answers to those questions aren’t simple.
           
You could argue that you should wait until the last game of the season to evaluate.
           
You could argue that if you know your decision, pull the trigger to get a jump-start on the coaching search and recruiting.
           
Tennessee fired Phillip Fulmer with three games and four weeks left in the season. It fired Johnny Majors with three games left in the 1992 season.
           
Florida fired Ron Zook with three games left.
           
Mississippi State forced out Sly Croom after the season.
           
Auburn waited until after the season to meet with Tommy Tuberville, who then resigned.
           
LSU fired Gerry DiNardo with one game left.
           
Terry Bowden wasn’t assured he would return at Auburn , so he resigned in October.
           
Alabama fired Mike Shula after the season.
           
“I don’t think there’s a magic formula on when to fire a coach,” said former Tennessee athletic director Doug Dickey. “It’s a case by case situation.”
           
Given a mulligan, Tennessee’s administration would not have fired Majors with three games left. It would have waited until after the season.
           
“There is an awkwardness to having a coach who is not your coach the last two, three, four games,” said someone involved in the Majors’ decision.
           
Fulmer called his last month on the job “a four-week funeral.”
           
For a month, Tennessee players were left hanging, emotionally drained. Assistant coaches were left hanging as well.
           
Yet, you could argue that if the athletic director knows he’s going to make a change, do it now. Don’t wait. Begin the hiring process and try to salvage the recruiting class.
           
In Tennessee’s case, the decision could have waited. If you lose to Wyoming, it’s an easier sell to fire Fulmer. If you wait until the week before the Kentucky game, you still have the same two reasons to make a change: Your coach wasn’t competitive enough against his main rivals and apathy had set in with the fan base.
           
Or you could do what Tennessee did 32 years ago. It told Bill Battle he had to win X-amount of games. He didn’t. He got fired and knew it was coming. No debate or anguish waiting on the verdict.
           
I’ve been told Lane Kiffin - not Butch Davis - was Hamilton ’s #1 target. The unemployed former Oakland Raiders coach interviewed at Washington, Syracuse and Clemson. Maybe UT was scared of losing Kiffin to one of those three. It shouldn’t have been.
           
Clemson was waiting to see if Dabo Swinney could earn the job - which he did. And don’t you think Kiffin would have waited on Tennessee rather than jumping on the Washington or Syracuse job?
           
If you had waited another week to hire Kiffin would it have mattered?
           
Let’s examine what’s happened in the week Kiffin has been Tennessee ’s coach. None of the five prospects who de-committed to Tennessee have re-committed. And none of the uncommitted players UT has been pursuing have committed to Tennessee.
           
Moreover, the only blue-chip quarterback you had coming in, Tajh Boyd, was told he doesn’t fit Kiffin’s system, so Boyd de-committed.
           
You can applaud Kiffin for being honest or question why he doesn’t tweak his scheme to suit a talented, athletic quarterback.
           
The point is, have you really gained that much by hiring Kiffin a week sooner?
           
Tuberville left days after being routed in the Iron Bowl. Five players immediately de-committed.
           
The good news for Auburn is, it had over 20 commitments (just like Tennessee ).
           
The bad news: If the Tigers don’t hire a coach soon, it might lose more than just those five.
           
But that remains to be seen.
           
For comparison’s sake, let’s see what happens to UT’s class and Auburn’s class on National Signing Day, provided Auburn gets a coach by December 15th.

That might be a good barometer for judging the effects of firing a coach with a month left in the season - versus pulling the trigger at the end of the year — and the timing of hiring a new coach.
           
Based on the recent trends in recruiting, you can make a case that now - from a recruiting standpoint — firing a coach the last week of the season makes more sense than firing him with several games remaining.
           
Some 10 years ago, most SEC schools didn’t have more than five commitments entering December. It was more important then to get a coach on the road recruiting to get pledges. The rationale: It’s easier to keep a commitment than to get one.
           
While the debate rages about when to fire a coach, two things are crystal clear to me: You don’t have the new coach fire the former coach’s assistants and you don’t keep the former coach around.
           
On a Sunday afternoon after Tennessee ’s last game, Kiffin called in each of Fulmer’s assistants. In less than two minutes, he told 20-year assistant John Chavis he was gone. Kiffin did the same to long-time assistants Steve Caldwell, Dan Brooks and Larry Slade. Kiffin told four of the five offensive assistants they would be retained for the immediate future.
           
Why should Kiffin’s first act be to fire assistants?
           
Couldn’t the athletic director tell each assistant he won’t be retained, unless the new coach calls you into his office within 24 hours? What’s the point of having veteran coaches summoned in on a Sunday afternoon to inform them they’re basically being fired again? That’s not the proper way to handle the situation.
           
On the second point, I don’t think it’s wise to keep the fired coach around in a fund-raising role or as an ambassador to the university or athletic department.
           
Let’s assume Fulmer and Tuberville remain at their schools. When they go out in public to represent their schools, a number of boosters, alumni and fans will tell them how great they are and how they were unjustly treated and how the administration should be ashamed of itself. Old wounds will be re-opened.
           
Not only that, you’ve got a new coach wondering if the former coach is looking over his shoulder - if not literally, at least figuratively.
           
Former Auburn coach Pat Dye wasn’t afraid to criticize Terry Bowden, even though Bowden started his Auburn tenure 20-0. When the Tigers slumped under Bowden, Dye was among the first to second guess Bowden.
           
If Fulmer and Tuberville remain at their schools, they should take a low profile approach. But it’s hard to raise funds if you’re stuck in an office.
           
When a marriage goes bad, you don’t live under the same roof.
           
You divorce.
             

LSU’s defensive coach situation could get interesting

Former Georgia coach Jim Donnan reported on an Atlanta radio station earlier this week that John Chavis has reached an agreement to be LSU’s defensive coordinator.
           
Not so, said Chavis, former defensive coordinator at Tennessee.
           
Chavis told me Tuesday he had not talked to LSU.
           
Would Chavis be interested in going to LSU?
           
“I don’t want to comment on a job unless there is an opening,” Chavis said.
           
LSU coach Les Miles has yet to announce what he will do about his co-defensive coordinators, a situation that clearly failed. LSU ranked 11th in the SEC in scoring defense and 12th in pass defense.
           
Chavis would be a great hire for LSU. He did one of his best jobs at Tennessee this past season, helping the Vols rank in the top five in the nation in total yards allowed and in the top 12 in pass defense and run defense. Not bad for a unit that got no help from an anemic offense that ranked last in the nation with the most three-and-outs.
           
Chavis said he doesn’t want to coach anywhere that doesn’t provide a chance to compete for a championship. So you’d think Chavis would certainly be intrigued to coordinate a defense at talent-rich LSU.
           
Chavis has had numerous calls from other colleges. He’s had feelers from the NFL. He’s turned down at least four offers in the past 10 years to be an NFL assistant.
           
Provided Miles makes a defensive change, and Chavis doesn’t go to LSU, former Ole Miss head coach Ed Orgeron might be a candidate. Orgeron is defensive line coach for the New Orleans Saints.
           
While Orgeron has a reputation as a good defensive line coach and for being a greater recruiter - Nick Saban was concerned about Orgeron recruiting Louisiana when Saban was at LSU - there might be some lingering ill will between Miles and Orgeron when Orgeron was recruiting at Ole Miss.
           
Orgeron’s name has been mentioned as a possible assistant at Tennessee under new coach Lane Kiffin, who worked with Orgeron at Southern Cal.
           
Archie Manning, Mr. Rebel himself, spoke glowingly of Orgeron, even though Orgeron failed as a head coach at Ole Miss.
           
“If I were a head coach, he’s someone I would consider hiring,” Manning said.
          


Dooley may really not be interested
  
Derek Dooley’s name has been mentioned as a candidate for the Mississippi State job, vacated by Sly Croom.
           
Dooley, head coach at Louisiana Tech and son of former Georgia Hall of Fame coach Vince Dooley, has indicated he’s not interested. He’s told sources that he feels you have to recruit the junior college ranks to be successful at State and that’s not the route he wants to take to build a program.
           
Interestingly, Dooley’s Tech team upset Mississippi State in the season opener, setting the tone for a poor season that led to Croom’s ouster.
    

     
Big 12 should adopt SEC system
 
The Big 12 needs to alter its tie-breaker system to determine who plays in the conference championship game.
           
In case of a three-way tie in which each of the teams is 1-1 against the others, the Big 12 advances the highest ranked BCS team to its league title game. In this case, Oklahoma, which lost head-to-head to Texas, gets the nod over Texas and Texas Tech.
           
The Big 12 would be better served to adopt the SEC format. The SEC takes the top three teams, eliminates the lowest ranked team in the BCS standings, then takes the winner of the head-to-head match provided those two teams are within five spots of each other in the BCS standings.
           
That seems a fairer way to declare a winner your division than using polls and computer ratings to decide to who plays for a conference championship. Shouldn’t head to head results count for something?
           
After all, Texas beat the two teams — Oklahoma and Missouri — scheduled to play for the Big 12 title.
 


SEC has poor record vs BCS teams
 
I have felt most of this season that the SEC was down. I believe the quarterback play in the league might be the worst I’ve ever seen. I believe the majority of the offenses border on being inept. I believe the defensive numbers are buoyed by playing against weak offenses.
           
Here’s another reason I think the SEC is down: The league went 6-9 against other BCS teams.

The wins: Florida over Miami and FSU, Alabama over Clemson, Kentucky over Louisville, Georgia over Arizona State, and South Carolina over NC State.
           
The losses: Tennessee to UCLA, Georgia to Georgia Tech, Mississippi State to Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt to Wake Forest and Duke, Ole Miss to Wake Forest, Arkansas to Texas, South Carolina to Clemson, and Auburn to West Virginia.
           
In six of those nine loses, the SEC team allowed at least 30 points, three times surrendering at least 38.
           
Moreover, the SEC lost twice to non-BCS teams: Mississippi State to Louisiana Tech and Tennessee to Wyoming.
           
Also, the SEC won’t be able to fill two of its tie-in slots - the Independence Bowl in Shreveport and the Papajohn.com bowl in Birmingham . The SEC should get two teams — Alabama and Florida — in a BCS bowl and only six other teams are bowl eligible.
 
           

Extra Points
           
* Vanderbilt can’t catch a break. The Commodores are bowl eligible for the first time since 1982, but the program might incur a 26th consecutive losing season if coach Bobby Johnson’s team loses its bowl game.
           
* Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer said he would consider being a TV commentator to analyze games, but not if it meant second-guessing or criticizing coaches. Fulmer said he would like to coach again, but only at a program that has a chance to win and has passionate fans.
           
* Defending national champion LSU had poor actual attendance, averaging more than 20,000 empty seats for home games against Appalachian State, North Texas, Mississippi State , Georgia , Tulane, Troy and Ole Miss, according to a media member. He said fewer than 30,000 fans were around in the fourth quarter against Ole Miss and Troy

* Two reasons for success at Florida and Alabama: Florida leads the nation in turnover margin at plus-21 and Alabama is second in the SEC at plus-9, while Florida leads the SEC in rushing and Alabama is second. Don’t turn the ball over and run it well and you’ll win a lot of games.
           
* South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier benched tight end Jared Cook for loafing during the Clemson game and wondered if some of his juniors were thinking more of the NFL draft than playing against the Tigers. You’ve got to applaud Spurrier for sitting a player for lack of effort. More coaches should do it.
 

The sporting world is full of what ifs.
           
What if LSU had hired Steve Spurrier instead of Mike Archer in 1987?
           
What if Peyton Manning had signed with Ole Miss instead of Tennessee?
           
What if Gene Stallings hadn’t abruptly left Alabama before the 1997 season?
           
What if Clint Stoerner hadn’t fumbled against Tennessee in 1998?
           
Maybe you don’t wonder about those things, but I do.
           
I wonder how the course of history would have changed if events were slightly altered, events that aren’t far fetched.
           
I wonder what would have happened at Alabama if the Crimson Tide had hired Rich Rodriguez, instead of Nick Saban. After being offered the Bama job in December 2006, Rodriguez left West Virginia the next year and gave Michigan its losingest season ever. Saban has Alabama 11-0 and #1 in the nation. Rodriguez might have a winning record this season, but I can’t imagine him doing what Saban has done.
           
I wonder what would have happened at Auburn if Tommy Tuberville hadn’t fired offensive coordinator Al Borges. Tuberville was enamored with the spread, so he hired Tony Franklin from Troy. But Auburn doesn’t have the personnel to run the spread. Franklin was fired at mid-season and the Tigers have seen their SEC record decline for the fourth straight year. With Borges, Auburn might have beaten LSU, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Georgia. Instead, Tuberville is on the hot seat.
           
I wonder what would have happened if an Arkansas fan hadn’t requested Houston Nutt’s cell phone records through a Freedom of Information Act. Would Nutt have stayed at Arkansas? Would running back Felix Jones have turned pro? Would the Hogs be, arguably, the worst team in the SEC? Or would Nutt have found a way to make Arkansas bowl eligible during a down year in the SEC?
           
I wonder what would have happened if Tim Tebow had gone to Alabama - his second choice — instead of Florida. Without Tebow, Florida doesn’t win the 2006 national title because he made key runs for first downs in several wins. One more loss that season and the Gators wouldn’t have played for all the marbles. And without Tebow, Urban Meyer’s spread option wouldn’t be nearly as effective and the Gators wouldn’t be playing in a second SEC championship game in three years.
           
I wonder what would have happened if Auburn hadn’t snubbed David Greene on his visit and Greene not signed with Georgia. Greene was the first quarterback for Mark Richt. He went on to become the NCAA all-time leader for wins and Georgia’s all-time leader for career total offense, passing yards, pass attempts, pass completions and touchdown passes. Greene helped Georgia win one SEC title, play for another and finish in the top 10 three consecutive years.
           
I wonder what would have happened at Kentucky if Randall Cobb had gone to Tennessee. Cobb committed to Kentucky in June. Tennessee then offered the product of Alcoa - 15 minutes from Neyland Stadium - a scholarship in December. Cobb was a spark at quarterback for the Wildcats. He was a receiver.  He also returned punts. He’s one of the top three freshmen in the SEC.
           
I wonder what would have happened if Ole Miss had given Ed Oregeron another year. Orgeron won 10 games in three seasons. How many would he have won this year? Probably four or five, considering his SEC record was 3-21. He wouldn’t have won at Florida or at LSU, and he might not have beaten Auburn. Landing Houston Nutt was a big coup for the Rebels.
           
I wonder what would have happened if Derek Pegues had signed with Tennessee instead of Mississippi State. Pegues grew up a Tennessee fan and said he would play for the Vols if offered. He was offered but instead became the first blue-chip signee for Sylvester Croom. Pegues helped the Bulldogs to an eight-win season in 2007 with his interception and punt returns.  Pegues holds the SEC record for most kickoff return yards and is second in total return yards with about 3,300.
           
I wonder what would have happened if LSU hadn’t dismissed quarterback Ryan Perrilloux. Poor quarterback play proved costly against Georgia (two interception returns for touchdowns) and Alabama (four interceptions). Give LSU two, may be three more wins under Perrilloux and this season has a different complexion.
           
I wonder what would have happened if Stephen Garcia hadn’t been suspended from spring practice at South Carolina. Steve Spurrier has started three quarterbacks this season. The musical chairs has led to inconsistent play at the most important position on the field. Spurrier says Garcia is still learning to play quarterback. If Garcia had been ready in August, the Gamecocks might have beaten Vanderbilt, Georgia and LSU.
           
I wonder what would have happened if David Cutcliffe had not left Tennessee as offensive coordinator. Tennessee’s worst offense since 1964 cost Phillip Fulmer his job. UT was 5-6 in 2005. Fulmer hired Cutcliffe to turn things around and the Vols won 19 games the next two seasons with a revitalized Erik Ainge. When Cutcliffe left for Duke, UT’s offense went dormant. I’m convinced Cutcliffe would have gotten more out of quarterback Jonathan Crompton or started B.J. Coleman. And UT would have beaten UCLA, Auburn and Wyoming and maybe Georgia - and Fulmer would still be Tennessee’s coach.
           
I wonder what would have happened if Vanderbilt hadn’t lost receiver Earl Bennett a year early to the NFL. The Commodores managed to start 5-0 and become bowl eligible for the first time in 1982 despite having the worst offense and the worst passing game in the SEC. Bennett would not only have helped the pass game, but opened up the run as well. Bennett might have been worth wins over Mississippi State and Duke.
 

Quarterback Tim Tebow has won a Heisman Trophy, run up gaudy numbers, set an NCAA record for touchdowns and elevated Florida to a top five team this season.
           
The left-hander is 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, ranked second in the nation in passing efficiency last year, and became the first player in NCAA Division 1-A history to run for 20 touchdowns and pass for 20 touchdowns in the same season.
           
He is a marketing dream.
           
But he doesn’t project to be a first-round pick and probably won’t turn pro after this season, according to NFL draft analyst Mike DeTillier.
           
“I wouldn’t want to be his first NFL coach because he is not fundamentally sound as a quarterback,” DeTillier said.
           
DeTillier thinks Tebow will get a second or third round grade from the NFL advisory board.
           
Tebow needs to become a more skilled passer, according to DeTillier.
           
To a certain extent, Todd McShay of ESPN agrees. McShay recently listed his first-round projections (including juniors) and didn’t have Tebow in the first round.
           
While Tebow needs to work on his passing, Georgia junior quarterback Matthew Stafford is already there. DeTiller says Stafford will be a top six pick along with Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, if Bradford decides to enter the draft.
           
McShay projects Stafford as the #3 overall pick.
           
Stafford is one of seven SEC juniors that McShay says will be drafted in the first round, if they come out. The total of SEC underclassmen to declare for the draft could range from 12 to 18.
           
McShay’s mock draft has Alabama junior offensive lineman Andre Smith as the #1 overall pick with Stafford third, senior offensive tackle Michael Oher of Ole Miss at #6, Auburn junior defensive lineman SenDerrick Marks at #11, Alabama junior nose tackle Terrence Cody at #17, Florida junior linebacker Brandon Spikes at #18, Georgia sophomore running back Knowshon Moreno at #20, and Florida junior receiver Percy Harvin #28.
           
DeTillier pointed out that previous #1 overall quarterback picks from the SEC - Peyton and Eli Manning and JaMarcus Russell - were at least 6-foot-4. Stafford is listed as 6-3 but DeTillier thinks he’s 6-2.
          
 “It’s not a huge thing, but it will be brought up in discussion,” he said. “Stafford is very accurate, a pocket passer, has good mobility, and he’s got a thick hide.”
           
DeTillier said Moreno will be among the top 15 players taken, and that Moreno is similar to Auburn’s Cadillac Williams, who was a top five pick.
           
DeTillier compared Harvin to Cal’s DeSean Jackson - a small, quick, explosive player - and Spikes to another Spikes - former Auburn star Takeo Spikes.
           
As for Alabama’s Smith, he is a “clear-cut” No. 1 guy, a left tackle who can play 12 years in the NFL.
           
“He’s the best junior or senior out there,” Detillier said. “He’s a dominant left tackle, better than (former Alabama star) Chris Samuels. There’s a reason Alabama runs 65 percent of the time off left tackle.”
           
DeTillier is high on Vanderbilt junior cornerback-receiver-returner DJ Moore, a two-way player who had two touchdown catches and two interceptions against Kentucky.
           
“He’s the most underrated football player in America,” DeTillier said. “He is to them on defense what Jay Cutler was to them on offense. He’s got great cover skills.”
             
Kentucky senior defensive end Jeremy Jarmon needs a big workout to move up from being a middle-round pass rusher.
           
“I like his pass rushing skills and the NFL has become a pressure league,” DeTillier said.
           
Kentucky junior cornerback Trevard Lindley projects to go in the second round.
           
“He’s a really good cover guy with athletic skills,” DeTillier said. “He could decide to come out early because the field is not great.”
           
DeTillier thinks LSU has two late first to early second round picks in junior left tackle Ciron Black and senior defensive end Tyson Jackson.

Junior defensive tackle Ricky Jean Francois has been “in the witness protection program most of the year.” DeTillier thought before the season Francois would be a high first-round pick and be more dominant than former LSU defensive tackle Glen Dorsey. That hasn’t been the case.
           
DeTillier sees Oher going among the top 10 picks. He also likes Ole Miss senior defensive tackle Peria Jerry, who projects as a late first rounder.

“A stud guy,” he said. “Short, squatty, great pressure up the middle, good motor.”
           
DeTillier said junior defensive end Greg Hardy has been too inconsistent due to a stress fracture in his foot.
           
“He’s a high maintenance guy,” DeTillier said. “You’ve got to be on him to get something out of him. But he’s the best natural pass rusher in the SEC. When he’s hot, he’s as good as they come. He could dominant, but you don’t see the fire in his belly. On athletic ability, he’s a first rounder. On attitude, he’s a third or fourth rounder.”
           
DeTillier likes two Auburn players: Marks and junior defensive end Antonio Coleman. Marks is a “disruptive” force and a good - but not great - inside pass rusher. He projects to go in the first round.”
           
Coleman is a good pass rusher but a bit “light in the pants,” and might get an early second-round grade.
           
Mississippi State senior safety Derek Pegues will be “a second rounder,” DeTillier said.

Pegues is a playmaker in the return game but smallish for a safety. He compares to the Colts’ Bob Sanders, but he doesn’t hit as hard, though his coverage skills are better.
           
South Carolina senior Kenny McKinley runs great routes and has good hands, but isn’t fast enough to be a high pick. He could be a good three receiver who likely will go in the middle rounds, DeTillier said.
           
DeTillier said Gamecocks junior Jared Cook is the best tight end in college football. He has good hands and blocks decently.
           
“He gets a first-round grade from me because he’s a special player,” DeTillier said.
           
Carolina junior linebacker Eric Norwood will get about a third-round grade and middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley would be a late-round pick because he’s a two-down player who doesn’t play the pass well, DeTillier said.
           
Carolina safety Emmanuel Cook would get a “fairly early grade” from DeTillier. “He’s a really good player. Plays good run support. Plays the pass well. He’s a playmaker back there.”
           
DeTillier said safeties like Cook are becoming more important in the NFL because they’re asked to play run support and cover one-on-one based on some spread offenses.
           
Tennessee senior running back Arian Foster made a mistake by not turning pro a year ago, when he had a second to third round grade. Foster rushed for almost 1,200 yards last season. He has 511 entering the Kentucky game.               
           
“He’s not a middle-round pick,” DeTillier said. “He hasn’t upgraded his draft stock. You’ll get good value if he plays like he did as a junior.”
           
Tennessee junior defensive tackle Dan Williams will be a second or third round evaluation. Williams could be a defensive end in a 3-4, DeTillier said.
           
“If you’re not a first-round grade, it’s worthwhile to come back (to college),” DeTillier said.
           
DeTillier thinks the Vols’ Robert Ayers will be drafted as will offensive linemen Ramon Foster and Anthony Parker, with Foster going ahead of Parker.

He also thinks junior outside linebacker Rico McCoy might have a shot as a strong safety and he thinks Lucas Taylor could make a team because of his hands.

As Tennessee athletic director Mike Hamilton pursues a new football coach, the bitterness of Phillip Fulmer’s ouster continues to linger in several camps.
           
Fulmer said it’s been like a three-week funeral around the football team and he still contended after the Vanderbilt game that he could have turned the program around.
           
Defensive coordinator John Chavis has been emotional in his disagreement with the decision.
           
A big-money contributor wore a “fire Hamilton ” hat to the Wyoming game.
           
Another booster said Hamilton better make the right hire or his job would be in jeopardy.
           
Hamilton was scheduled to interview Texas Tech coach Mike Leach Sunday in Dallas, according to a source. North Carolina’s Butch Davis and Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly are also considered strong candidates for the job.
           
The sooner Hamilton makes a hire, the better chance UT has of salvaging a recruiting class that was once ranked among the top five in the nation.
           
Since Fulmer’s firing, four recruits have de-committed - offensive lineman Antonio Foster, running back Jarvis Giles, safety D.J. Swearinger and fullback Dominique Allen.  Running back David Oku de-committed today.

At least three others are scheduled to visit other schools and likely will de-commit if left hanging much longer.
           
And UT is in on eight players who are hoping to enroll at mid-term, including blue-chip quarterback Tajh Boyd, receiver JeRon Stokes, and linebacker Jerrod Askew.
           
If you don’t have a coach in place by December 15th, you might lose the majority of those mid-term prospects.
           
Such are the obstacles when you make a coaching job - deserved or not.
           
You can argue with the timing, but you can also make valid points that a change was necessary. Consider Fulmer’s 1-9 record against top 10 teams at home in the 2000s, his record against the elite programs and coaches in the SEC, his losing record in his last 33 SEC games, a 10-year drought since winning his last SEC title, a 65 percent winning percentage in the 2000s versus an 84 percent winning percentage in the 1990s.
           
Could Fulmer have turned it around?
           
He thinks so.
           
So does a former Tennessee great, offensive lineman Tim Irwin, who starred for the Vols some 30 years ago and made the Minnesota Vikings all-time 40-year team.
           
Irwin called the decision to fire Fulmer “unsound” and is concerned about the direction of the program without Fulmer.
           
“This is a giant step backwards,” Irwin said. “We’ll go back to the stone age with the program. … I’m embarrassed by the way my university handled it.”
           
Irwin said a new coach will start from “ground zero” whereas Fulmer, with a change at offensive coordinator, has a better chance to rebuild by retaining the defensive staff and holding on to a top-notch recruiting class than a newcomer.
           
Another former player, who asked not to be identified, said Tennessee will venture into a 10-year abyss because of the Fulmer firing.
           
Hamilton, obviously, is willing - or felt compelled - to take that risk. He saw a program that wasn’t as competitive as desired with its rivals. He saw dwindling attendance. And he saw the majority of a fan base that had lost faith in its coach.
           
But, will Hamilton make the right hire?
           
He knows what happened at Nebraska, where a former colleague, Steve Pederson, fired Frank Solich after a 9-win season, hired Bill Callahan from the NFL, then got fired before Callahan got the heave-ho.
           
You can point to a number of football powers that have endured slumps, some for more than a decade.
           
* LSU had eight losing seasons in an 11-year period, including six in a row. Mike Archer, Curley Hallman and Gerry DiNardo couldn’t win at one of the best college jobs in the country. Nick Saban was hired in 2000 and put LSU back on the relevant map.
           
* Alabama had five none-winning seasons under three coaches from 1997-2006. Each coach, somehow, recorded a 10-win season.
           
* Oklahoma had five consecutive non-winning seasons from 1994-98 and won seven games combined in 1996-97. Gary Gibbs and John Blake failed before Bob Stoops got it turned around in a big way.
           
* Southern Cal had four non-winning seasons between 1996-2001. And the Trojans were 3-8 in 1991. Pete Carroll has turned the Trojans into a top five program.
           
* Notre Dame has had four losing seasons since 1999 and dropped in a .500 record in 2004. The jury is still out on Charlie Weiss.
           
Will Tennessee’s program meander in mediocrity for many years or will the next coach be an immediate success, like Jim Tressel at Ohio State?
           
It’s a roll of the dice, a calculated risk.
           
We’ll find out if Hamilton hits a home run like he did in hiring Bruce Pearl or whiffs like Alabama did with Mike Shula.
 

Extra Points

*Who would have thought Ole Miss and LSU would both be 7-4 with the Rebels having the inside shot at the Cotton Bowl over the defending national champions? Quarterback play is a big reason. Ole Miss’ Jevan Snead was outstanding against LSU, firing two touchdown passes, while LSU’s passers were 14 of 32.
           
*Tennessee’s anemic offense has had a touchdown drive on 18 of 132 possessions and added five field goals when the offense had to generate at least one first down. Compared to a recent Florida surge - 34 touchdowns on 54 possessions - that makes UT’s offense look even worse. Also, UT has completed 49 percent of its passes for seven touchdowns. The last time UT failed to hit half of its passes in a season was 1979. The last time UT failed to reach double digits in TD passes was 1989.
           
*Vanderbilt has the worst offense of any bowl eligible team. The QB play was horrible against Tennessee , and the run game mustered 25 yards on 28 carries. Vandy had minus-2 yards of total offense before the last drive of the first half. Vandy is averaging only 262 total yards per game and is last in the SEC in passing.
           
*Wouldn’t a national championship game between Florida and Oklahoma be spectacular? Oklahoma scored 65 points against the No. 2 team in the nation. The Sooners have scored more points in the first quarter than more than 20 Division 1-A