We’re never short of opinions here at MrSEC, however divergent they may be. On Friday, John Pennington and Jimmy Hyams offered their takes on what they expect to unfold today in Atlanta at the SEC Championship Game. Pennington, in this post directly below this one, believes the Tide can pull the upset - winning 27-24. Hyams sees the Gators celebrating a close victory, with Florida edging Alabama 20-17.
One thing we know for sure - if EITHER of these guys is correct, taking underdog Alabama and getting the points would be the right move today. But is it? Weekend MrSEC loves to follow the line action and the sentiment of the gambling community. And as stories this week made clear, with the line set so high and the number one-ranked team in the country being in the underdog role, we’re breaking new ground.
“We’re in uncharted waters,” Ken Waters told the Birmingham News on Thursday. Waters has been setting lines in Vegas for 25 years. “Florida is the better team, but I never expected it to be this high.”
“This high” was 9 1/2 points on Thursday. But as I write this on Saturday morning, most offshore sites have Florida as a 10-point favorite.
Is that too many points? Considering that Florida is 10-1 against the spread the season and have won eight in a row - all by 30+ point margins - I don’t think it is.
While taking nothing away from Alabama and the Tide’s accomplishments this season, their three major victories over ranked teams at the time look less impressive in hindsight. The Crimson Tide opened the season with a win over then #9 Clemson (finished at 7-5), beat Georgia in Athens (gave up 45 points in losing to Georgia Tech last week) and edged LSU in overtime (finished at 7-5 with back-to-back losses to Ole Miss and Arkansas).
College football guru Phil Steele outlines a path for Alabama to stay close but ultimately sides with the Gators.
“…if Bama gets a couple of key plays early or its offensive line takes control of the game vs a banged up Gator Dline then they do have a great shot at the upset. I will still call for the Gators here as they are the more talented team, have more team speed than any other in the country, the defenses are equal but they have a good sized offensive edge and an even larger edge on special teams and Tim Tebow vs JP Wilson is a mismatch in QB productivity.’
Steele’s forecast? Florida 41, Alabama 17. There you have it. Three different prognostications - three very different outcomes: Alabama wins a close game, Florida wins a close game and Florida in a blowout. That’s something for just about everyone, I suppose. The only forecast not included here would the ultimate contrarian play - a double-digit victory for Alabama.
I tend to concur with Steele’s analysis - but am rooting for either John or Jimmy to be right. I just want to see a close and entertaining game. Kickoff is just hours away.