The Las Vegas oddsmakers have already opened the doors to the 2008 football season and already they’ve seen shifts in the lines due to fans and gamblers placing early bets.
After speaking with folks at a number of casino sportsbooks in Las Vegas last week, there were a couple of points that people should keep in mind about the odds and spreads that bookmakers set:
1) The line isn’t affected greatly by SEC or East Coast gamblers. Even though schools such as Alabama and Tennessee have super strong fanbases (ie: folks that would put money on their team even if they were facing the Dallas Cowboys), the casino’s odds are set for West Coast gamblers.
West Coasters are much more likely to travel to the desert to bet legally. Therefore, the teams whose fanbases affect the point spreads the most are: Southern Cal, UCLA, Notre Dame (a huge national following) and Ohio State (another huge national following).
2. The folks in the South who make money off of the Vegas line are the local bookies. Those are the guys that feel the “bounce” from Vol and Tide fans, for example, who might be a little too sure of their teams.
3. You’ve heard this before, but a casino’s goal is to set a line that will bring in the exact same amount of money on one team as the other. Since the house makes a built-in profit off of every bet wagered, the safest way for them to make bank is to have even money come in for each team.
4. At some point, you’ve heard someone say, “Vegas thinks we’ll win.” Or you’ve heard someone get angry because “Vegas thinks we’ll lose.”
Uh, no.
Vegas, again, sets the line to bring in an even amount of money on both teams. Winning’s got nothing to do with it according to 99.9% of the bookmakers with whom I spoke.
Here’s an example. Tennessee will open their season at UCLA on Labor Day. So what might “Sportsbook X” consider when setting the line for that game:
1) Tennessee is not expected to be a national power this year, so there probably won’t be an overwhelming push of cash in their direction. (Which is why I’m using this game as an example, rather than Georgia-Arizona State.)
2) There will be a lot more LA, California and West Coast gamblers in Las Vegas that weekend, which should mean more people putting cash on UCLA in “Sportsbook X” than normally would.
3) Tennessee is expected to be superior talent-wise to UCLA this year, but how much so? Also, the Bruins have a new head coach and offensive coordinator while the Vols have a new offensive coordinator. Those factors could make people more likely to bet on the underdog.
So, it’s likely that “Sportsbook X”, attempting to get an even number of dollars wagered IN their casino, will install Tennessee as the favorite, but not as a heavy favorite. Not as heavy a favorite as the Vols might be if “Sportsbook X” were a off-shore, online sportsbook taking bets from all over.
Tennessee might be set as a 5- or 6-point favorite by an off-shore book. But a Vegas book, like the imaginary “Sportsbook X,” might list them as only a 3-point favorite… because “Sportsbook X” knows they’ll get UCLA, West Coast money, and they want to get an equal amount wagered on the Vols.
Setting UT as a smaller favorite would encourage non-partisan fans to lay cash on the favorite.
And none of that has anything to do with which team will actually win the game.
Now, let’s get on to the odds that are already up in Vegas right now… the odds of winning this season’s BCS title.
By sportsbook, I’ll list the way the lines opened and how they stand now.
You’ll find all the teams listed at 10-1 or better, followed by all of the SEC teams on the board, “the field” (which means the odds of a team not listed winning), and Notre Dame (just so you can see the shifts based on money coming in on them.
The Bellagio Race And Sportsbook
Opening Odds on 4/18/08
Southern Cal 3-1
Oklahoma 6-1
Florida 6-1
Ohio State 8-1
Georgia 10-1
Texas 10-1
Missouri 10-1
LSU 15-1
Auburn 25-1
Tennessee 30-1
“The Field” 30-1
Alabama 50-1
South Carolina 75-1
Arkansas 100-1
Notre Dame 100-1
Odds as of 6/5/08
Southern Cal 5-2 (money coming in on the Trojans)
Ohio State 5-1 (ditto Ohio State)
Florida 6-1
Georgia 6-1 (cash coming in on the Bulldogs)
Oklahoma 8-1
Missouri 10-1
LSU 15-1
Auburn 25-1
Tennessee 40-1 (odds dropping, no real cash coming in on the Vols)
“The Field” 40-1
Alabama 50-1
Notre Dame 50-1 (surprise, surprise… biggest jumper from 100-1)
South Carolina 80-1 (odds dropping, no cash coming in)
Arkansas 125-1 (ditto, no cash coming in)
The Harrah’s Family of Casino Sportsbooks (Caesar’s Palace, The Flamingo, Harrah’s, The Rio, Bill’s Gambling Hall and Saloon, Harveys, Bally’s, Paris, and The Imperial Palace)
Opening Odds on 1/6/08
Southern Cal 7-2
Ohio State 4-1
Florida 5-1
Georgia 6-1
Missouri 7-1
Oklahoma 8-1
LSU 10-1
“The Field” 18-1
Auburn 35-1
Arkansas 45-1
Tennessee 60-1
South Carolina 60-1
Alabama 75-1
Kentucky 125-1
Notre Dame 300-1
Odds as of 6/5/08
Southern Cal 5-2
Georgia 3-1 (big money wagered on the Dawgs in these casinos)
Ohio State 7-2
Florida 5-1
Missouri 7-1
Oklahoma 7-1
LSU 8-1
“The Field” 18-1
Auburn 30-1
Arkansas 75-1 (big drop, not much money coming in)
Tennessee 50-1 (folks ARE betting on the Vols in these casinos)
South Carolina 55-1 (ditto for Carolina)
Alabama 30-1 (big money being spent on Alabama)
Notre Dame 45-1 (up from 300-1 on a team that finished 3-9)
Kentucky 150-1 (not on Kentucky)
The Hard Rock Casino Sportsbook
No Opening Odds provided, these are Odds as of 6/5/08
Southern Cal 7-2
Florida 4-1
Oklahoma 8-1
Ohio State 8-1
Georgia 10-1
LSU 12-1
Auburn 40-1
Alabama 60-1
Notre Dame 50-1
“The Field” 50-1
Tennessee 75-1
South Carolina 75-1
Kentucky 100-1
Arkansas 200-1
Observations:
Some of you are already saying, “they don’t think we’re that good.” But that’s only part of this formula. Remember the oddsmakers in Las Vegas know betting habits. They’re trying to grasp what the average gambler’s perception of a team is. That might explain why Georgia is the odds-on favorite to win the SEC down South, but Florida is the more highly favored team to win the national title by the casinos.
Also, the folks in Vegas know which teams will get the most West Coast money… just look at how high Southern Cal and Ohio State are listed. Yet their odds still rose as folks put money on them. And Notre Dame… jeesh.
Last thing, just for kicks, here are the current odds (as of 6/5/08) for next year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Again, I’ve listed any team that is 10-1 or better, all SEC teams that are listed, “The Field,” and Notre Dame.
The Harrah’s Family of Casino Sportsbooks
(Caesar’s Palace, The Flamingo, Harrah’s, The Rio, Bill’s Gambling Hall
and Saloon, Harveys, Bally’s, Paris, and The Imperial Palace)
North Carolina 4-1
Pittsburgh 8-1
Louisville 8-1
Duke 8-1
Texas 10-1
Purdue 10-1
Kansas 10-1
Notre Dame 20-1
Tennessee 22-1
Florida 30-1
“The Field” 40-1
Alabama 50-1
Mississippi State 60-1
Kentucky 85-1
Ole Miss 85-1
Arkansas 100-1
Vanderbilt 125-1
Georgia 500-1
LSU 750-1
Kentucky is an 85-1 shot? Worse than Mississippi State and tied with Ole Miss? Wow.