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SEC Commitment Comparator – 1/8/14

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(CORRECTION — An earlier version of this piece had incorrectly tallied LSU and Alabama’s Quantity and Quality numbers.  We apologize for any confusion.)

National Signing Day is one month away.  Do you know how your school’s class stacks up?

Today we give you a quickie overview of the current SEC classes of commitments (with juco signees thrown in for good measure).  As usual, we take a three-way approach to determine who’s sitting pretty and who needs to close fast.

We use the star rankings provided by Rivals.com because over time we’ve found them to be better indicators of future team success.  No, 4-stars and 5-stars don’t always pan out, but the more a school signs… the better.  There are exceptions to this rule (Arkansas under Bobby Petrino, Missouri currently under Gary Pinkel), but most everyone would grab the five-star guys if they could get ‘em.

For each star Rivals assigns, we assign a point.  We also award a point to 0-star prospects as their film has yet to be graded.  We look at each class in terms of Quantity (just the total amount of talent points coming into a program), Quality (the average number of points per player in a given class), and High-Caliber Recruits (4- and 5-star athletes only).  We feel this covers recruiting about as thoroughly as is possible.  Then, at the bottom of this report, we’ll tally the results, look at each school’s standing within the league, and dole out our own MrSEC.com Recruiting Rankings.

Ready?  Let’s start with the Quantity portion of our rankings…

 

Quantity

  School   Commits   5-stars   4-stars   3-stars   2-stars   1- & 0-stars   Total Points
  Tennessee   33   2   15   15   0   1   116
  Alabama   24   4   13   7   0   0   93
  Auburn   21   3   10   7   1   0   78
  Kentucky   23   0   9   13   1   0   77
  Ole Miss   23   0   6   16   1   0   74
  Missouri   26   0   2   17   7   0   73
  Texas A&M   20   2   10   7   1   0   73
  Florida   20   0   11   9   0   0   71
  LSU   18   1   13   3   1   0   68
  Vanderbilt   20   0   6   14   0   0   66
  Arkansas   20   0   3   15   2   0   61
  Georgia   16   1   10   5   0   0   60
  S. Carolina   16   0   8   8   0   0   56
  Miss. State   18   0   2   12   4   0   52

 

Quality

  School   Commits   Pts/Commit
  Alabama   24   3.87
  LSU   18   3.77
  Georgia   16   3.75
  Auburn   21   3.71
  Texas A&M   20   3.65
  Florida   20   3.55
  Tennessee   33   3.51
  S. Carolina   16   3.50
  Kentucky   23   3.34
  Vanderbilt   20   3.30
  Ole Miss   23   3.21
  Arkansas   20   3.05
  Miss. State   18   2.88
  Missouri   26   2.80

 

High-Caliber Recruits

  School   Commits   4- & 5-stars
  Alabama   24   17
  Tennessee   33   17
  LSU   18   14
  Auburn   21   13
  Texas A&M   20   12
  Florida   20   11
  Georgia   16   11
  Kentucky   23   9
  S. Carolina   16   8
  Ole Miss   23   6
  Vanderbilt   20   6
  Arkansas   20   3
  Missouri   26   2
  Miss. State   18   2

 

Tally all those rankings up and you arrive at our official MrSEC.com Recruiting Rankings, just one month from signing day.

And remember, we’re adding up the finishing point for each school in the above standings.  So the lower the score the better in the table below…

 

  Rank   School   Quantity   Quality   High-Caliber   Total Points
  1   Alabama   2   1   1   4
  2   Tennessee   1   7   1   9
  3   Auburn   3   4   4   11
  4   LSU   9   2   3   14
  5   Texas A&M   6   5   5   16
  6   Florida   8   6   6   20
  7t   Georgia   12   3   6   21
  7t   Kentucky   4   9   8   21
  9   Ole Miss   5   11   10   26
  10t   S. Carolina   13   8   9   30
  10t   Vanderbilt   10   10   10   30
  12   Missouri   6   14   13   33
  13   Arkansas   11   12   12   35
  14   Miss. State   14   13   13   40

 


5 comments
the_voice
the_voice

Hi John. Would I be wrong to assume that most all of these programs will end up using their 85 scholarships? If so, how does the quantity of recruits matter? (As you've said in the past, some coaches grab kids quick while others seem to want to wait until the last minute.) It just seems to me that overall quality and number of high caliber recruits might be more indicative of recruiting success than filling your scholarships, which the other schools will do as well. It would be great if you would help me understand your thinking about why the value of quantity of recruits rates equal with the other two measures.

ChrisWynes
ChrisWynes

You did some math wrong there, LSU should have 68 quality points, putting them at #1 in quality with 3.77, and moving into 5th in your overall ranking.


John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

@the_voice 


If a school is trying to completely re-vamp or re-stock their roster, quantity matters a lot.  Tennessee, for example, filled its roster last year with walk-ons who normally would not have gotten scholarships.  That was a product of that school having four coaches in a six-season span AND the roster attrition that goes with such turnover.


Also, if a new coach plans on running off some of the last coach's signees because they don't fit his system, quantity matters.


It's just something for you to look at.  I think it has meaning.  Others may not.  They can ignore it.  They can dislike it.  They can devise their own system or use another rankings service.  This has been our formula for years.  Usually, the only people who do like it are the fans whose schools are on top in a given year... and since that changes from year to year, we get critiques and debate on a regular basis.  But we're gonna stick with it.


Many thanks for always reading the site,

John

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

@ChrisWynes 


You are correct... put down 58 instead of 68 and just transcribed wrong.  My bad.  Sometimes real life prevents me from putting the time into this that it needs.


My apologies.


John

the_voice
the_voice

@John at MrSEC @the_voice Thanks for the clarification. I get why quantity sometimes matters, particularly for a coach new to a program wanting to show some momentum to other recruits early in the process. For other programs, not so much.


I won't choose to ignore quantity, but to my mind it is less valuable than the other two metrics. Thanks for putting up with an analytical.

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