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SEC Commitment Comparator – 12/17/13 Vs 12/21/12

blue-chipAs we barrel ahead toward the holidays, I wanted to put together a quickie version of our commitment comparator that examines who’s done what on the recruiting trail… compared to this time a year ago.  Next week we’ll put up our normal comparator complete with our own MrSEC.com recruiting rankings.  But below we’ll look only at the Quantity component of our rankings.

Longtime readers of the site know that we use Rivals.com’s recruiting rankings (we’ve found that their grades better predict future team success or failure).  For each star they assign, we assign a point.  We also award a point for any 0-star prospect.  We then tally the points to see which SEC programs are bringing in the greatest amount of talent.  (Usually, we also look at the Quality and High-End Commitments for each school, but not today.)

Below you will see how each SEC school is doing on the recruiting trail at the moment.  Below that, we’ll compare the totals to those of December 21st, 2012…

 

Quantity

  School   Commits   5-stars   4-stars   3-stars   2-stars   1-& 0-stars   Total Points
  Tennessee   34   2   16   15   0   1   120
  Alabama   23   3   13   7   0   0   88
  Kentucky   24   0   9   14   1   0   80
  Ole Miss   24   0   6   17   1   0   77
  Auburn   19   3   8   7   1   0   70
  Missouri   25   0   2   16   7   0   70
  Texas A&M   19   2   9   7   1   0   69
  Vanderbilt   20   0   6   14   0   0   66
  Florida   18   0   11   7   0   0   65
  Georgia   16   1   10   5   0   0   60
  LSU   15   0   11   3   1   0   55
  Miss. State   18   0   2  13   3   0   53
  S. Carolina   15   0   7   8   0   0   52
  Arkansas   17   0   2   13   2   0   51

 

And now let’s see who’s ahead of or behind last year’s pace…

 

  School   12/21/12   12/17/13   Difference
  Tennessee   47   120   +73
  Kentucky   46   80   +34
  Auburn   70   45   +25
  Missouri   52   70   +18
  Alabama   72   88   +16
  Ole Miss   67   77   +10
  Arkansas   45   51   +6
  Vanderbilt   65   66   +1
  S. Carolina   61   52   -9
  Miss. State   63   53   -10
  Florida   87   65   -22
  LSU   82   55   -27
  Georgia   104   60   -44
  Texas A&M   115   69   -46

 

To be sure, there are all kinds of factors involved in those 14 shifts from one direction to the other — a bumper crop of in-state students one year but not the next, the number of scholarships a school has available, involvement with big name prospects who might make their decisions on signing day, etc.  Still, it’s interesting to see where each program stood about this time a year ago.

Not surprisingly, the three teams farthest ahead of last year’s pace all have new coaches who were just getting their feet on the ground 12 months ago.  The jumps at Auburn and Kentucky are impressive.  The leap at Tennessee is jaw-dropping.

Georgia and Texas A&M are way behind last year’s numbers, but look how far out in front of their rivals they were a year ago.

Missouri is ahead of last year’s pace thanks to an 11-win season.  We’ll be interested to see if the Tigers can improve the quality of their commitments between now and signing day.

Remarkably, Alabama is ahead of last year’s schedule.  And for those who haven’t been following recruiting, Nick Saban has been at or near the top of the signing day rankings for the past five years.

Ole Miss — which had a great class last year — is actually a little bit ahead of the pace this year, but it’s doubtful they’ll be able to finish as strong as they did on signing day a year ago.

Arkansas, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Mississippi State are all moving at about the same pace.  The disappointment there might belong to Arkansas.  Unlike the other three rookie coaches in the SEC, Bret Bielema hasn’t made big strides over his first make-shift class.  Not yet anyway.

Florida is off last year’s pace as is LSU.  Both squads were hot this time a year ago.  We expect LSU to heat up as signing day approaches.  Florida will be an interesting one to watch coming off a 4-8 season with a coach on the hot seat and an in-state rival in the BCS Championship Game.

How Do You Rank SEC Recruiting Classes?

 


6 comments
the_voice
the_voice

John, Tennessee has had a fabulous recruiting year so far, but any analysis of SEC recruiting by team that doesn't list Alabama #1 has obvious flaws at this point in history, unless it is pure quantity of commitments.  When all is said and done, Saban will have more 5 and 4 stars on campus than any other school.  

Pinkel is an excellent coach, but his class is at the bottom of the table at this time. A 3 star plus a 2 star doesn't equal a 5 star.

sojourner
sojourner

although i'm a tennessee grad and bleed orange juice, i take an interest in arkansas as it has been nigh on 40 years my adopted home (my son graduated from there).  i'm highly disappointed in how little progress the hogs have made since last year.  truth be told, the last good recruiter to coach there was frank broyles (retired 76).  the only way they are going to dig their way out of the hole they're in was commented on by the ole ball coach after he swatted them this year--they're gonna have to recruit their way out.  looks like bielema needs a bigger shovel or a gift certificate for u-haul.  guys like holtz, hatfield, and petrino could make up for lousy recruiting by sheer coaching ability.  whether b.b. has that kind of moxie remains to be seen.


(btw:  the turn around at u.t. doesn't surprise me at all.  the vols have it all, facilities, tradition, fan support, and a historic stadium.  all that was needed was a real coach.

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

@the_voice  


Not a ranking.  A comparison of points (stars) from last year to this year.  Thought I'd made that pretty clear by writing:


"Next week we’ll put up our normal comparator complete with our own MrSEC.com recruiting rankings.  But below we’ll look only at the Quantity component of our rankings."


Thanks for visiting the site,

John

Sheizman
Sheizman

Michael Sam (consensus All American), Justin Britt ( all SEC), LaDamian Washington (10 tds) were all 2 star recruits. As were current NFL players Sean Weatherspoon, Andrew Gachkar, and Danario Alexander, Aldon Smith was a low rated 3 star. Starting CB Randy Ponder was a walk on as was starting LG Max Copeland. But somehow these guys play and produce at Mizzou and beyond. Pinkie clearly knows what he is looking for and how to develop players. Just because some kids get an extra star by their name, it doesn't mean they'll pan out. Mizzou will do just fine.

the_voice
the_voice

@John at MrSEC @the_voice Saw the disclaimer. But stars committed to date by team listed most to least still most certainly appears to be a ranking.

Have a great holiday season.

the_voice
the_voice

@Sheizman Some coaches excel at getting lower rated recruits and getting more out of them than expected (possible whether they are more astute talent evaluators or are better at developing talent). Pinkel does fit that mold. Still, seven 2 stars out of 25 commits as you have the best season in school history just reduces your chances for future success, as documented repeatedly on this website. Hope it works out for the Tigers.

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