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SEC Commitment Comparator – 9/5/13

blue-chipIt’s now been a month since our last check of the MrSEC.com commitment “Big Board” and there’s been quite a bit of shuffling in our rankings.  Every school has added points, but some have added a lot of points.  While others have continued to struggle.  Missouri, for example, has yet to land a single commitment from a 4- or 5-star recruit.

Below you’ll find the updated numbers for each SEC program.  As always, we’ve used the star ratings provided by Rivals.com.  Previous research projects that we’ve done on this site have left us feeling that Rivals’ rankings are the best indicator of future class success.

For each star Rivals.com assigns, we hand out a point.  We also award 0-star recruits a point because those prospects simply haven’t had their film graded yet.

We then break down the numbers three different ways.  We just quantity in one table, quality in another, and finally high-caliber recruits (4- and 5-star commitments) in another.  After all that, we assign points for each school’s position in those three tables to arrive at our own MrSEC.com recruiting score (the lower the score, the better).

So let’s begin by looking at the quantity rankings…

 

  School   Commits   5-stars   4-stars   3-stars   2-stars   1- & 0-stars   Total Points
  Tennessee   24   1   11   11   1   0   84
  Kentucky   24   0   8   15   1   0   79
  Alabama   20   1   13   6   0   0   75
  Ole Miss   20   0   5   13   2   0   63
  Georgia   16   1   11   4   0   0   61
  Vanderbilt   18   0   5   13   0   0   59
  Florida   15   0   9   6   0   0   54
  Missouri   20   0   0   11   9   0   51
  Texas A&M   14   1   7   6   0   0   51
  Arkansas   16   0   3   12   1   0   50
  Auburn   14   1   7   5   1   0   50
  LSU   14   0   8   5   1   0   49
  S. Carolina   13   0   7   6   0   0   46
  Miss. State   15   0   2   7   6   0   41

 

Now let’s see how the quality rankings break down…

 

  School   Commits   Avg. Pts/Commit
  Georgia   16   3.81
  Alabama   20   3.75
  Texas A&M   14   3.64
  Florida   15   3.60
  Auburn   14   3.57
  S. Carolina   13   3.53
  LSU   14   3.50
  Tennessee   24   3.50
  Kentucky   24   3.29
  Vanderbilt   18   3.27
  Ole Miss   20   3.15
  Arkansas   16   3.12
  Miss. State   15   2.73
  Missouri   20   2.55

 

Next, we look at the high-caliber rankings…

 

  School   Commits   4- & 5-stars
  Alabama   20   14
  Georgia   16   12
  Tennessee   24   12
  Florida   15   9
  Auburn   14   8
  Kentucky   24   8
  LSU   14   8
  Texas A&M   14   8
  S. Carolina   13   7
  Ole Miss   20   5
  Vanderbilt   18   5
  Arkansas   16   3
  Miss. State   15   2
  Missouri   20   0

 

Finally, we arrive at our official, overall MrSEC.com Recruiting Rankings.  Below we’ll show you the position of each school in the above charts, then we’ll assign points for those positions.  You’ll see the current rankings on the far left and last month’s ranking in parentheses beside each school’s name.  And remember, the lower the score the better…

 

  MrSEC Rank   School (Aug.)   Quantity   Quality   High-Caliber   Total Points
  1   Alabama  (2)   3   2   1   6
  2   Georgia  (3t)   5   1   2   8
  3   Tennessee  (1)   1   7   2   10
  4   Florida  (10)   7   4   4   15
  5t   Kentucky  (5)   2   9   5   16
  5t   Texas A&M  (3t)   8   3   5   16
  7   Auburn  (11)   10   5   5   20
  8   LSU  (6)   12   7   5   24
  9   Ole Miss  (8)   4   11   10   25
  10   Vanderbilt  (9)   6   10   10   26
  11   S. Carolina  (7)   13   6   9   28
  12   Arkansas  (12)   10   12   12   34
  13   Missouri  (13t)   8   14   14   36
  14   Miss. State  (13t)   14   13   13   40

 


6 comments
RedandBlackDawg
RedandBlackDawg

I believe that UGA has two (5) stars in Sony and Chubb, both running backs.

bpa_kc
bpa_kc

I will be curious to see how many of those top level recruits UK will be able to hold onto if they keep losing. 

MizeryLovesCompany
MizeryLovesCompany

It's useless to even look at these comparators for my Mizzou Tigers anymore (well, atleast until later in the season) - There is simply no way they are going to attract any upper-level talent until they start winning some games (hopefully, with fewer injuries, knock on wood, they could happen!)

Just as they lost commitments last yr after their losing record, I think a winning season might sway some 'on the fence' guys to maybe go the Tigers way.  But until then, they will be stuck at the bottom of the rung.  Granted, Pinkel says he trusts his own evaluations in these matters versus raw 'star' assignments, so let's hope his class IS better than their ranking!

JoetheWriter
JoetheWriter

@MrSEC bama, with its collection of top talent and the best coaching in the land has no business losing ANY game in the next 3 - 4 years!!!

the_voice
the_voice

John, I enjoy this evaluation process regularly and find it informative. A question - at the margins, are you better off to have more commitments at this time or not. I know everybody would like their classes filled with 5 stars by now, but, as an example, isn't it arguable that Vanderbilt is better off at this point vs. Mississippi? I say that because they are attracting somewhat higher ranked recruits and have two more slots to fill. Another example is Florida and Tennessee. In January the disparity of commits may be alarming, but at this point is it? Just wondering.

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

@the_voice 

I think it depends on the team and the coaching staff.  Some guys are better closers than others.  Still others prefer to let someone else try to hang on to recruits (which isn't easy).  Those coaches are A-1, last-minute poachers.

We know that many of the nation's top recruits will delay an announcement right down to signing day.  At that point, the usual subjects will likely close in strong fashion -- Alabama, Florida, LSU, Georgia, maybe Texas A&M at this point.  

But for those schools trying to claw their way to the top, I think it's better to get the momentum rolling early.  Ole Miss took advantage of some close ties to a couple of big names last year, got themselves noticed on the recruiting trail, and then finished well.  Tennessee seems to be doing that this year, lining up a number of high-profile kids who have connections to the program.  Those commits then work the social media angle to recruit other players.  As a result, not only do the Vols have 24 commitments, but the only squad in the league with more 4- and 5-star commits is Alabama.  Ole Miss last year and Tennessee this year (and Kentucky to an extent) expanded their recruiting force by getting kids to commit early and then having them share the schools' vision to other prospects.

So it can work both ways.  Sorry that's a vague answer, but it really boils down to the coach's preference, how much momentum a school needs, and what type of kids a school is chasing.  Schools going for the 5-star guys will likely fill their classes up on signing day.

Many thanks for reading the site,

John

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