Albama Arkansas Auburn Florida Georgia Kentucky LSU Mississippi State Missouri Ole-Miss USC Tennessee Texas A&M Vanderbilt
Latest News

Updated SEC Bubble Numbers And Bracket Hopes

gfx - by the numbersTwo days into the SEC Tournament, it’s time to update the CVs for the four teams described as being on the NCAA tourney bubble by post prognosticators.  As of 8:30pm last night, BracketMatrix.com — a site that combines nearly 90 different internet projections into one list — had four SEC teams in the field of 68.  The current belief is that Florida and Missouri are clearly in, Kentucky and Tennessee are barely in, and Ole Miss and Alabama are barely out.

If you’ve been reading this site all hoops season, you know that that’s the way we’ve been calling the race for weeks — Florida and Missouri in, Kentucky and Tennessee in if the SEC gets four bids, Ole Miss and Alabama doomed by bad scheduling, bad losses, or both.

Let’s see if there’s any reason to change our thinking today…

 

    Kentucky   Tennessee   Ole Miss   Alabama
  Div. I Record   21-10   20-11   23-8   19-11
  Non-Conf. Record   9-4   8-4   11-2   7-5
  Winning % Rank   64   85   40   90
  Avg. RPI Win   157   148   171   152
  Avg RPI Loss   56   64   93   89
  SOS   61   57   130   88
  Non-Conf. SOS   72   45   284   86
  RPI   48   55   56   63
  Vs. RPI 1-50   2-4   4-4   1-4   1-4
  Vs RPI 51-100   4-4   4-5   5-1   5-3
  Vs RPI 101-200   6-2   4-2   6-1   7-3
  Vs RPI 201+   9-0   8-0   11-2   6-1
  Non-Conf. Away/Neutral   1-2   2-3   3-2   3-2

 

So what’s changed since our last (even more) in-depth bracket breakdown on Monday?

*  Tennessee’s resume has changed the most.  Yesterday’s win over Mississippi State got the Vols over the 20-win plateau and boosted their winning percentage rank from 92 to 85.  However, UT’s resume overall has taken a hit by a) having to play a team as bad as MSU and b) the poor work turned in this week by teams the Volunteers had already played.  Since Monday, UT’s average RPI win has fallen from 144 to 148… it’s average RPI loss has dropped from 61 to 64… it’s overall SOS has cratered from 42 to 57… its now played an additional sub-200 team in RPI (MSU).  All of those numbers appear on the info sheets handed out to the tournament selection committee, by the way.  Aside from grabbing a 20th win, the Vols have caught very few breaks this week.

*  Kentucky has seen an RPI boost from 50 to 48 (though their RPI is a tad different in every computer model you look at it).  Going up is a good thing.  Texas A&M has falled outside the RPI top 100 (again that depends on the RPI you look at) and that’s caused UK to now show two sub-200 losses on its data sheet.  Still, UK looks to be more of a lock today than at any point in recent weeks.

*  It’s non-conference foes from early in the season have done Ole Miss a bit of a solid this week.  While the number will still likely be a killer on Selection Sunday, UM’s non-conference strength of schedule has at least improved from 290 to 284.  Hurrah?  Overall, however, the Rebels’ average RPI win and average RPI loss have both dropped a point.  Also, Texas A&M’s fall from inside the top 100 to outside the top 100 has given Ole Miss another sub-100 loss to go along with two sub-200 losses.  Carrying three losses outside the RPI top 100, Mississippi really needs to do some winning in Nashville.

*  There’s been very little movement on Alabama’s resume aside from an RPI drop from 62 to 63.  As we’ve mentioned numerous times, fewer than one sub-60 RPI team per year has received an at-large bid since 1995.  The last two years — with an expanded field — three teams outside the RPI top 60 have gotten at-large berths (out of 74 total invitations extended).  The Tide still has a lot of work to do.

 

Earlier this week we told you the SEC needed help in a few other conference tournaments.  The more NCAA locks and champions win their tournaments, the fewer at-large bids get gobbled up.  Here’s what happened in those tourneys to watch:

*  Memphis and Southern Miss are in the C-USA semifinals today.  SEC fans should be pulling for Memphis to win the whole thing.  The worst cast scenario is for UTEP or Tulsa to pull upsets the next two days and win the tournament.  If that happens, Memphis will get an NCAA at-large bid and Southern Miss might.

*  Valparaiso won the Horizon League tourney on Tuesday.  That was a positive for the SEC’s bubble teams.

*  Akron will play in the MAC semifinals today.  SEC fans should be pulling for the Zips to steamroll through the rest of the tourney.  If Kent State, Western Michigan, or Ohio win the tourney, Akron’s good enough to get at-large bid consideration… which could use up a much-needed bubble spot.

*  There’s good news for the SEC in the Mountain West’s tourney.  San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV and Colorado State have made it to the league semifinals.  Those teams were likely in the NCAA field anyway as the MWC is the top-rated conference by RPI.  The chalk will win out West and that will help down South.

*  On Wednesday, Patriot League regular-season champ Bucknell also won their conference tournament.  Big plus as Bucknell might have nabbed an at-large bid had it lost.

*  There’s bad news out of the WAC Tournament.  The league’s top two seeds — Louisiana Tech and Denver — have both fallen.  La. Tech is a bubble team now with a 26-6 record and an RPI of 54.  SEC fans must hope that the Bulldogs’ loss to 10-21 Texas-San Antonio will tarnish their resume enough to keep them out of the Big Dance field.  With an RPI of 67 and a loss to 12-21 Texas State last night, Denver’s goose already appears to be cooked.

*  Earlier this week, Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament by thumping St. Mary’s by 14.  Gonzaga was a lock for the NCAA’s anyway and may grab a #1 seed.  SEC bubble teams need to hope St. Mary’s — 26-6 record, RPI of 30, but SOS of 96 — doesn’t steal an at-large bid.

 

So going into today’s action, here’s how we see the SEC stacking up:

*  Kentucky is in as of this moment.  They face Vanderbilt tonight at 7:30pm ET and the Commodores’ 117 RPI won’t help the Cats’ much.  But even if UK is upset, we think they’ll make the NCAA field.  They’ll just have to do some sweating on Sunday.

*  Contrary to popular belief, we do not see today’s 3:00pm ET showdown between Alabama and Tennessee as a winner-take-all matchup (though we know the folks at ESPN will hype it as such).  We believe it could be a play-out game for UT — their resume really took a hit this week as noted above — but UA, in our view, would still need to do a bit more work to earn a bid.  Even with a win over the Volunteers.  If UT wins, we think they’ll be solidly in the field.

*  Ole Miss gets a shot at another good win by playing RPI 31 Missouri tonight at 10pm ET.  UM needs wins of any kind and a quality win over Mizzou would definitely add some polish to the Rebels’ resume.

 

Bottom line:

Florida and Missouri are still locks.  Kentucky is getting closer to being a lock.  Tennessee could sew up a tourney berth or see one slip away depending on today’s outcome.  They’re not dead with a loss, but they’ll have to spend Sunday worrying.  Ole Miss might slide by UT if the Rebels knock off Missouri tonight.  And Alabama remains the biggest dark horse, likely needing a win over Tennessee today and another win on top of that.  In fact, with an RPI in the 60s, Bama might need to win the whole tourney to safely reach the NCAA Tournament.

 


0 comments

Trackbacks

  1. [...] Star TribuneBarry Reeves Sporting NewsSportingNews.comThe Star-Ledger – NJ.com -MrSEC -1500 ESPNall 33 news [...]

  2. [...] Star TribuneBarry Reeves Sporting NewsSportingNews.comThe Star-Ledger – NJ.com -MrSEC -1500 ESPNall 33 news [...]

  3. [...] basketball tournament 2013 results and bracket: Alabama, Ole Miss get key …SB NationUpdated SEC Bubble Numbers And Bracket HopesMrSECall 45 news [...]

  4. cow man90 says:

    The Absent Game

    Between me and my husband we have owned more MP3 players over time than I can count, together with Sansas, iRivers, iPods (basic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few many years I’ve settled down to one line of gamers.

  5. Homepage says:

    … [Trackback]

    [...] Read More here: mrsec.com/2013/03/updated-sec-bubble-numbers-and-bracket-hopes/ [...]

  6. Orlando Pucket

    Thanks for your hgpaaxx article. One other thing is when you are marketing your property all on your own, one of the problems you need to be aware about upfront is when to deal with home inspection reports. As a FSBO supplier, the key concerning succes…

  7. Websites you should visit

    [...]below you’ll find the link to some sites that we think you should visit[...]…

  8. Cool sites

    [...]we came across a cool site that you might enjoy. Take a look if you want[...]…

  9. Read was interesting, stay in touch…

    [...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]…

  10. how to check google pagerank

    to uncover concerns to boost my web page!I suppose its okay to generate use of a couple of of your ideas!!

  11. Sharleen Romanson

    Unquestionably dirotd believe that which you stated. Your favorite reason appeared to be on the net the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people think about worries that they just don’t know about. You managed…

  12. Websites we think you should visit

    [...]although websites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are actually worth a go through, so have a look[...]…

  13. Read was interesting, stay in touch…

    [...]please visit the sites we follow, including this one, as it represents our picks from the web[...]…

  14. search engine optimizers

    Excellent perform you’ve carried out, this web site is admittedly interesting with amazing details. Time is God’s method of preserving all the things from taking place at the same time.

  15. Irvin Heroth

    whoah this blog is dirotd great i like studying your posts. Keep up the good work! You already know, a lot of people are hunting around for this info, you could aid them greatly.

  16. seo optimization services

    to discover issues to boost my web-site!I suppose its ok to generate use of some of the concepts!!

  17. bestcontractors

    [...]The information and facts talked about in the write-up are a number of the best readily available [...]

  18. marina putra apple aurum one residences

    I feel there may well become a few duplicates, but an exceedingly useful checklist! I’ve tweeted this. Many thanks for sharing!

  19. Tempie Morrow

    Yet another djdioxs issue is that video gaming has become one of the all-time most significant forms of fun for people spanning various ages. Kids engage in video games, and also adults do, too. The particular XBox 360 is just about the favorite games…

  20. Excellent

    web site you’ve got here.. It’s difficult to find high quality writing like yours nowadays. I truly appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!

  21. hi

    It’s difficult to find educated people about this subject, however, you seem like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks

  22. Recommeneded websites

    [...]Here are some of the sites we recommend for our visitors[...]…

  23. myntra Discount

    [...]one of our visitors just lately advised the following website[...]

  24. Blogs ou should be reading

    [...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]…

  25. Go Here says:

    Blogs ou should be reading

    [...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]…

  26. Gaspari says:

    Websites worth visiting

    [...]here are some links to sites that we link to because we think they are worth visiting[...]…

  27. Gems form the internet

    [...]very few websites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[...]…

  28. Recent Blogroll Additions…

    [...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]…

  29. Great website

    [...]we like to honor many other internet sites on the web, even if they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Under are some webpages worth checking out[...]…

  30. Recent Blogroll Additions…

    [...]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[...]…

  31. The Slave of the Husband

    Seeking ahead to researching further from you afterward!…

  32. Blogs ou should be reading

    [...]Here is a Great Blog You Might Find Interesting that we Encourage You[...]…



Follow Us On:
Mobile MrSEC