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Keep Your Eyes On The Battleground States On Signing Day

Map_of_USA_with_state_names_2When the sun rises on National Signing Day Wednesday, we’ll keep you up to date on the signees for each and every SEC school.  One of the things we’ll be studying?  Where the SEC’s 2013 talent come from.

A quick look at recent signing day results tells us that 14 states in the SEC area tend to produce either a large portion of league signees or a large portion of 4- and 5-star recruits who could have been league signees.  Those states are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and the non-SEC states of North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio.

Below we’ve broken some interesting numbers down for you.  We’ve looked at prospects who were graded by Rivals.com as being 4- or 5-star players.  We’ve looked at the 2010, 2011, and 2012 signing classes.  We’ve taken note of only those players attending high school or prep school in a given state.  And finally, we’ve gone back to see how many of those top prospects a) signed with schools in their home state and b) signed with current SEC programs.

 

2012

  State   4- & 5-stars   Signed In State   Signed W/ SEC
  Alabama   12   7   8
  Arkansas   2   0   0
  Florida   44   22   20
  Georgia   24   6   19
  Kentucky   1   1   1
  Louisiana   12   6   9
  Mississippi   4   4   3
  Missouri   4   2   2
  S. Carolina   5   4   1
  Tennessee   10   4   7
  Texas   38   29   10
  N. Carolina   11   2   6
  Ohio   20   9   0
  Virginia   16   7   2

 

2011

  State   4- & 5-stars   Signed In State   Signed W/ SEC
  Alabama   8   8   8
  Arkansas   3   2   3
  Florida   49   23   20
  Georgia   22   12   17
  Kentucky   2   0   0
  Louisiana   14   10   13
  Mississippi   10   7   10
  Missouri   1   0   0
  S. Carolina   6   5   4
  Tennessee   2   2   2
  Texas   41   23   4
  N. Carolina   11   5   3
  Ohio   16   8   1
  Virginia   16   5   2

 

2010

  State   4- & 5-stars   Signed In State   Signed W/ SEC
  Alabama   13   11   12
  Arkansas   3   1   1
  Florida   50   26   18
  Georgia   30   10   19
  Kentucky   0   0   0
  Louisiana   11   7   9
  Mississippi   9   7   9
  Missouri   8   4   4
  S. Carolina   13   7   8
  Tennessee   6   2   4
  Texas   49   29   13
  N. Carolina   11   5   1
  Ohio   14   2   2
  Virginia   23   6   4

 

And now a look at those three signing classes combined:

 

2010-2012

  State   4- & 5-stars   Signed In State   Signed W/ SEC
  Florida   143   71 (49.6%)   58 (40.5%)
  Texas   128   81 (63.2%)   27 (21.0%)
  Georgia   76   28 (36.8%)   55 (72.3%)
  Virginia   55   18 (32.7%)   8 (14.5%)
  Ohio   50   19 (38.0%)   3 (6.0%)
  Louisiana   37   23 (62.1%)   31 (83.7%)
  Alabama   33   26 (78.7%)   28 (84.8%)
  N. Carolina   33   12 (36.3%)   10 (30.0%)
  S. Carolina   24   16 (66.7%)   13 (54.1%)
  Mississippi   23   18 (78.2%)   22 (95.6%)
  Tennessee   18   8 (44.4%)   13 (72.2%)
  Missouri   13   6 (46.1%)   6 (46.1%)
  Arkansas   8   3 (37.5%)   4 (50.0%)
  Kentucky   3   1 (33.3%)   1 (33.3%)

 

Observations:

* Though Georgia produces more overall SEC signees most every year, Florida produces more high-caliber 4- and 5-stars prospects each year.

* SEC East schools like Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee should be mining SEC border states North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.  About two-thirds of all 4- and 5-star recruits from those states leave home to sign elsewhere.

* SEC teams (other than Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss) should spend less time trying to pry recruits out of Mississippi and Alabama.  A whopping 78% of the players in those states stay at home and ink with a local school.

* A few SEC schools with low numbers of high-caliber in-state prospects and no in-state SEC competition need to do a better job of harvesting those local prospects they do have: Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri.  Georgia and Florida would appear to fit in this category as well, but both of those programs are successful enough to raid other states.  UK, UA and MU can’t say that as this point.

 

And finally, here’s a look at which of those 14 states have produced the most 4- and 5-star prospects this year:

 

2013

  State   4- & 5-stars
  Florida   52
  Texas   45
  Georgia   24
  Virginia   21
  Ohio   19
  Alabama   14
  Louisiana   13
  Mississippi   12
  N. Carolina   9
  Tennessee   9
  S. Carolina   5
  Kentucky   3
  Missouri   3
  Arkansas   2

 


2 comments
GeoffDawg
GeoffDawg

That’s a pretty consistent refrain among Georgia fans as well. We produce large quantities of quality talent every year but lose much of it out of state. Obviously, Georgia can’t sign them all and Georgia Tech tends to shoot itself in the foot but I would also assert that the state’s geographically central position as well as the sheer number of FBS level recruits per capita bring more resources and attention from other programs than almost any other Southern state save Florida and now probably Texas. From a value perspective, even though Alabama or Mississippi does produce top talent, would a program be better off sending scouts to a game in Dothan, AL where they might find one player or Statesboro, GA where there could be 2 or 3 potential recruits lining up?

BonzaiB
BonzaiB

Interesting. I would have thought Texas would produce more 4-5 stars than Florida.



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