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Vince’s Vibe – Week 10 picks

Here’s the complete schedule of SEC football games this weekend with details, analysis and a score prediction for each game.

My record last week picking SEC games was 6-1. My record after week 9, straight-up, is 65-11 (86 %.)

 

Schedule for Saturday, November 3

*Rankings are BCS

 

#16 Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at #15 Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1 SEC)

12 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. CT • ESPN

Starkville, Miss. • Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (55,082)

Vince’s Vibe: This was a game I struggled with. I don’t think the Bulldogs getting handled at Alabama means that this team is a fraud and will struggle from here on out. I think Mississippi State will account for itself well, but won’t be able to slow-down Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel. Only elite defenses have been able to adjust and get the better of “Johnny Football” in 2nd halves of games, Florida and LSU. MSU isn’t stout enough on D to get enough stops in a close game.

Winner: Texas A&M 38-35

 

Missouri (4-4, 1-4 SEC) at #7 Florida (7-1, 6-1 SEC)

12 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. CT • ESPN2

Gainesville, Fla. • Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field (88,548)

Vince’s Vibe: Missouri starting QB James Franklin is back for the Tigers. Will he return to what he was last year? If he’s that kind of dynamic play-maker, that might be the only way Mizzou wins at Florida. I do think DT Sheldon Richardson can wreak some havoc on the Gators o-line. However, I expect Florida to pound the diverse run-game for four quarters (especially the 2nd half) down Missouri’s throat. Will Muschamp knows his team has the size and physicality advantage, and he’ll coach to that. Barring a massive letdown, Florida wins going away.

Winner: Florida 30-10

 

Vanderbilt (4-4, 2-3 SEC) at Kentucky (1-8, 0-6 SEC)

12 p.m. ET / 11 a.m. CT • ESPNU

Lexington, Ky. • Commonwealth Stadium / C.M. Newton Field (67,942)

Vince’s Vibe: Vanderbilt QB Jordan Rodgers hasn’t been spectacular this season, but he’s taking better care of the football and limiting negative plays (5 TDs, 2 INTs, 208 yds per game.) Commodores WR Jordan Matthews should have a big game against the UK defense. Vandy’s defense will create turnovers facing a bad offense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kentucky battle again, as it did versus Georgia, but I think VU is a little better.

Winner: Vanderbilt 27-17

 

Troy (4-4) at Tennessee (3-5, 0-5 SEC)

12 p.m. ET / 11 a.m., CT • FSN

Knoxville, Tenn. • Neyland Stadium / Shields-Watkins Field (102,455)

Vince’s Vibe: Troy has: ability on offense, some decent team speed, a veteran quarterback, players with ties to UT, a head coach with SEC experience and a history of beating heavily-favored BCS conference opponents. However, doing it on the road, coming off of a head-scratching loss to hapless FAU is tough to envision. Tennessee’s historically inept defense can certainly help Troy’s cause. Tennessee should have its way with Troy’s defense. I think Vols WR Justin Hunter has a big day on offense. I also think Cordarrelle Patterson has one, maybe even two, returns for touchdowns. Tennessee will outscore Troy in a high-scoring game. Derek Dooley might not want to lose this game. See Gene Chizik below.

Winner: Tennessee 42-28

 

Tulsa (7-1) at Arkansas (3-5, 2-3 SEC)

12:21 p.m. ET / 11:21 a.m. CT • SEC Network

Fayetteville, Ark. • Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium (72,000)

Vince’s Vibe: Arkansas got the ground-game going last week, as RB Dennis Johnson had a league-high 161 yds in the loss to Ole Miss. The problem is the Razorbacks had a tough time stopping the Rebels. Tulsa brings in the nation’s 9th best rushing attack at 249 yards per game. The weakness on defense for the Razorbacks has been the pass. The run defense has been ok. That’s a plus for Arkansas. Tulsa might have the leaky pass defense that will allow QB Tyler Wilson and the passing game to put-up better numbers. It won’t be like recent years, and it won’t be easy, but Arkansas squeaks by.

Winner: Arkansas 37-34

 

New Mexico State (1-7) at Auburn (1-7, 0-6 SEC)

12:30 p.m. ET / 11:30 a.m. CT • CSS

Auburn, Ala. • Jordan-Hare Stadium / Pat Dye Field (87,451)

Vince’s Vibe: Yikes. Good luck finding a game around the country with more bad stats stock-piled between the two teams than this game. Gene Chizik isn’t the lock to be fired that many think he is. But, if he loses this game at home, it’s not just a lock, its multiple deadbolts securing that bad-boy. I won’t take up much of your time with all the alarming stats. I will say this. I can’t pick a team with a head coach (DeWayne Walker) coming in with a record of 10-36 (22%) to win at an SEC team, regardless of how bad it has been for Auburn. No other thought process needed.

Winner: Auburn 31-13

 

Ole Miss (5-3, 2-2 SEC) at #6 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC)

3:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. CT • CBS Sports

Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)

Vince’s Vibe: Ole Miss is a threat in this game. If you have breakdowns on defense, the drastically improved Rebels offense can make you pay. I’m so impressed with what Hugh Freeze has done with the team many pegged to be the worst in the league entering the season. Has Georgia re-found itself on defense after the dominating performance last week in the win over the Gators? It has the talent to continue to dominate, that’s for sure. Which Georgia team will show-up? Which Aaron Murray will show-up? If it’s somewhere in-between on both questions, Georgia will be able to out-talent Ole Miss to a win.

Winner: Georgia 31-20

 

#1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC) at #5 LSU (7-1, 3-1 SEC)

8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT • CBS Sports

Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (92,542)

Vince’s Vibe: LSU has the talent to potentially pull the upset, if Alabama has an off-night and LSU plays its most inspired game of the year. The stud defensive ends at LSU have to not only get to AJ McCarron, but they must somehow rattle him and force game-changing turnovers. Yeah, when’s the last time that happened? I know, not likely. No INTs in 11 games for McCarron. LSU has to score on defense or special teams because I don’t see the offense being very effective against that Alabama defense. Look for Alabama WR Amari Cooper to have a big day with LSU selling-out to stop the run, and McCarron making the throws. The Bama run-game will rule the 4th quarter to put a cap on the road win to keep the Crimson Tide undefeated.

Winner: Alabama 23-10

 

 

OPEN:  South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 SEC)

 

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