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MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 11/8/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call our Quick Strike measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Turns out, we aren’t the only math geeks out there who like this stat.  A bigger math geek than those of us here at MrSEC.com — and we mean that in a good way — has tested our numbers, applied them to the Big Ten, and found that there’s a clear correlation between a good Quick Strike number and wins in that league as well.  You can find the analysis of ElevenWarriors.com here.

Now onto the backstretch of the season, we’ll look only at the stats and numbers from SEC versus SEC contests.

Without further ado, our Quick Strike measure:

 

  School   Pts Scored Vs SEC   Off. Plays   Points/Play
  Alabama (6-0)   230   380   .605
  Georgia (6-1)   230   478   .481
  Texas A&M (4-2)   225   490   .459
  S. Carolina (5-2)   191   457   .417
  Tennessee (0-5)   143   344   .415
  Florida (7-1)   207   515   .401
  Ole Miss (2-3)   122   343   .355
  Miss. State (3-2)   116   337   .344
  Arkansas (2-3)   110   361   .304
  Vanderbilt (3-3)   109   418   .260
  Auburn (0-6)   81   348   .232
  LSU (3-2)   82   358   .229
  Missouri (1-5)   95   430   .220
  Kentucky (0-7)   72   408   .176

 

Observations:

*  The top four teams in the league in our Quick Strike measure are a combined 21-5 (corrected) in conference play.  The bottom four teams in the SEC are a combined 4-20.  No surprise in that.  This stat ties directly to winning and losing football games.

*  The teams that are out of place are Tennessee (0-5), Florida (7-1) and LSU (3-2).  The Volunteer offense is the fifth-best in the SEC in this efficiency rating, but as we’ll show you later today, UT’s defense gives back every point the offense scores and then some.  Florida and LSU, unlike Tennessee, have superior defenses that make up for a lack of offense in the Gators’ case and a real lack of offense in the Tigers’ case.

*  Take note of how far above the rest of the league Alabama sits.  There’s a steady stair-step type of incline from team #14 to team #2, but then there’s a large jump to the Crimson Tide’s number.  AJ McCarron crew — as LSU learned on Saturday night — put up points a lot more quickly than most folks think.  In fact, every play they run is worth more than a 6/10ths of a point on the scoreboard.  Impressive.

 


2 comments
BonzaiB
BonzaiB

A merge of the two sets of grind metrics would be awesome. That would be a genius X / Y axis graph.

mb6783
mb6783

The top 4 teams are 21-5, not 21-3. 



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