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Latest News Stat Analysis: Quick Strike 11/15/12

For the past five years we’ve tried to bring you sets of numbers and statistics that provide a different glimpse into the world of SEC football.  One of the most telling stats we’ve come up with is what we call our Quick Strike measure.

Obviously, the goal in football is to put up as many points as possible.  The fewer snaps it takes a team to do that, the less chance for errors like penalties and turnovers.  Quick Strike provides a simple look at how many points each offensive snap is worth to a given team.  Literally, it reveals the number of points scored per offensive play run.

But Quick Strike is not just an offensive measure.  Special teams scores and long returns can speed up how quickly a team piles up points.  Turnovers can provide short fields for offenses.  Defensive touchdowns are even more valuable as a team does not even need to run an offensive play and risk a turnover or penalty in order to put points on the scoreboard.

Turns out, we aren’t the only math geeks out there who like this stat.  A bigger math geek than those of us here at — and we mean that in a good way — has tested our numbers, applied them to the Big Ten, and found that there’s a clear correlation between a good Quick Strike number and wins in that league as well.  You can find the analysis of here.

Now onto the backstretch of the season, we’ll look only at the stats and numbers from SEC versus SEC contests.

Without further ado, our Quick Strike measure:


  School   Pts Scored Vs SEC   Offensive Plays   Points/Play
  Alabama  (6-1)   254   445   .570
  Georgia  (7-1)   268   545   .491
  Texas A&M  (5-2)   254   567   .447
  Tennessee  (0-6)   191   435   .439
  S. Carolina  (6-2)   229   523   .437
  Florida  (7-1)   207   515   .401
  Ole Miss  (2-4)   148   433   .341
  Miss. State  (3-3)   133   400   .332
  Arkansas  (2-4)   130   429   .303
  Missouri  (2-5)   146   512   .285
  LSU  (4-2)   119   426   .279
  Vanderbilt  (4-3)   136   489   .278
  Auburn  (0-7)   81   397   .204
  Kentucky  (0-7)   72   408   .176


Three teams stand out: Tennessee, LSU and Vanderbilt.

*  Tennessee’s offensive numbers suggest the Volunteers should have somewhere between five and seven (!) wins in SEC play.  But the Vol defense has been so bad UT is actually winless in league play.

*  LSU and Vanderbilt have not put up the offensive numbers to suggest they’d both have winning records.  But they do.  Which tells you that unlike Tennessee, the Tigers and Commodores have been getting some very solid performances from their defensive units.


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