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Vince’s Vibe: Week 7 Picks

Here’s the complete schedule of SEC football games this weekend with details, analysis and a score prediction for each game.

My record last week was 2-4. My record after week 6, straight-up, is 47-9.

Schedule of Saturday, Oct. 13 Games

*Rankings are AP first/Coaches second

 

OPEN:  #14/12 Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC)

 

Auburn (1-4, 0-3 SEC) at Ole Miss (3-3, 0-2 SEC)

12:21 p.m. ET / 11:21 a.m. CT • SEC Network • Sirius Channel 137 • XM Channel 199

Oxford, Miss. • Vaught-Hemingway Stadium / Hollingsworth Field (60,580)

Vince’s View: Ole Miss has grown from a 1-point favorite to a 6-point favorite this week. Not bad for a team that has lost 16-straight conference games. What does that say about Auburn? The Rebels have shown fight and offense, two things that have been tough to find in Auburn blue. Auburn is 120th in the country in turnover margin (-2.20), 117th in scoring offense (15.4 per), 113th in total offense (302.4 per), etc. Most importantly, the eye test isn’t in Auburn’s favor either. It is easy to see the letter when you cover either eye. The L is big and clear on the screen when it comes to Auburn football games this season.

Winner: Ole Miss 27-17

 

#1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at Missouri (3-3, 0-3 SEC)

3:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. CT • CBS Sports • Sirius Channels 138 / 85 • XM Channels 198 / 85

Columbia, Mo. • Memorial Stadium / Faurot Field (71,004)

Vince’s View: The nation’s #1 defense gets a shot at a very disappointing Missouri offense that will be without starting QB James Franklin, not that Franklin was even playing well. Alabama has too much size, speed and physicality for Mizzou. I think Alabama is more focused and nasty on the road. That means a blowout on national television (CBS) for the 2nd time this season for the Columbia crew.

Winner: Alabama 41-10

 

#4/6 Florida (5-0, 4-0 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-3, 1-2 SEC)

6 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. CT • ESPNU • Sirius Channel 137 • XM Channel 199

Nashville, Tenn. • Vanderbilt Stadium (40,550)

Vince’s View: Many expect a Florida letdown following the best win of the Will Muschamp era at Florida last week vs. LSU. I would expect the Gators to have an intensity drop-off, sure. However, Vandy is coming off of a big win at Missouri also. Can’t the Commodores have a letdown too, even at home? Vandy’s strength on defense is versus the pass. Florida is selective when it passes. The Gators defense and running game is too strong for Vanderbilt. Florida will get some points on defense and win going away.

Winner: Florida 31-13

 

Kentucky (1-5, 0-3 SEC) at Arkansas (2-4, 1-2 SEC)

7 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. CT • FSN • Sirius Channel 134 • XM Channel 200

Fayetteville, Ark. • Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium (72,000)

Vince’s View: Kentucky was already a mess offensively. Now it has to rotate freshmen QBs. Both have some ability, and are better than Morgan Newton, but are still green with limited weapons to help. Arkansas showed some life at listless Auburn last week. QB Tyler Wilson was uninjured in a car accident in Fayetteville this week. He’s a terrific leader. Arkansas isn’t back by any means but should beat another bad opponent with hot-seat talk around its coach.

Winner: Arkansas 34-17

 

#3 South Carolina (6-0, 4-0 SEC) at #9/8 LSU (6-0, 2-0 SEC)

8 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. CT • ESPN • Sirius Channels 85 / 91  • XM Channels 85 / 91

Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (92,542)

Vince’s View: SC hasn’t been ranked this high (3rd) since 1984. This is another assumed letdown game with the Gamecocks coming off of the emotional (and incredibly impressive) blowout of the Georgia Bulldogs. Plus, the team is on the road in a hostile environment against a talented team. All those are viable theories except, that we’ve been waiting way too long for LSU to show some offense, some play-calling feel, some adequate quarterback play, some emotion, some swagger, some championship focus and more. I’ve given the Bayou Boys the benefit of the doubt week after week. Now, I’m done. LSU’s offensive line has had a huge drop-off with the back-ups. The receivers aren’t as good as past years and are unreliable. The running backs aren’t running with authority. Those are all dangerous traits against Clowney, Taylor and that devastating D-line. It won’t be as pretty this week for South Carolina but it will be a win. Then, things turn ugly for Les Miles in LA.

Winner: South Carolina 20-9

 

Tennessee (3-2, 0-2 SEC) at #19/18 Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0 SEC)

9 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. CT • ESPN2 • Sirius Channel 128 • XM Channel 197

Starkville, Miss. • Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (55,082)

Vince’s View: Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley will coach the game from the coaches’ box after having hip surgery this week. He will make all decisions, as is normal. The marquee match-up in this one is the Tennessee passing game versus the Mississippi State pass defense. One MSU assistant said of how complete and the skilled Tennessee receivers are, “If you order wide receivers out of a magazine, that’s what you’d get.” Another State coach said this head-to-head duel will be NFL players versus NFL players. Tennessee WRs Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson along with Mississippi State CBs Johnthan Banks and Darius Slay are all destined for the league. The last time the Vols faced a heralded secondary, UT torched NC State in the Georgia Dome. Two differences from that game: One, Tennessee hasn’t played as well since. Two, Mississippi State can get after the quarterback and tackle, unlike the Wolfpack. Will Tennessee’s defense tackle better coming off the open week and prevent the long touchdowns that have been back-breakers in the two Tennessee losses? If not, Mississippi State has the receivers (Chad Bumphis) and the running backs (LaDarius Perkins) to make Tennessee pay with the big play. Watch for MSU head coach Dan Mullen to dial-up some offensive and defensive schemes Tennessee hasn’t seen before. For Mississippi State on offense, I think you’ll see more zone-read and misdirection plays to exploit the Vols’ alarming inability to contain the edge on defense. Tennessee’s defense has also had trouble covering the TE some this season. Look for Mississippi State to throw to its TEs more this game (starter Marcus Green and talented Malcolm Johnson returning from injury.) I don’t have any examples to call upon that leads me to believe that Tennessee can win a close game on the road. In close games on the road, here’s who I don’t have confidence in for Tennessee: Tyler Bray, the kickers and the coaching staff. We have to see something we’ve never seen before for Tennessee to win. If so, you can scratch-off “never beat a ranked opponent” and “hadn’t won a SEC road game outside of the state of Tennessee” off the list of horrible stats that have hovered over the UT program for years. If not, it will be an all-out assault on his job by many fans to the media next week. It will also lead to Tennessee fans giving-up their tickets to Alabama fans next week, making a statement of red dominating Neyland Stadium loud and clear to administration. This is a must-win for Derek Dooley. Not must-win or get fired the next day but must-win or there’s no-way you win enough games by season’s end to keep your job another year.

Winner: Mississippi State 35-28

 

#22/21 Texas A&M (4-1, 2-1 SEC) vs. #23/24 Louisiana Tech (5-0)

9:15 p.m. ET / 8:15 p.m. CT • ESPNU • Sirius Channel 139 • XM Channel 201

Shreveport, La. • Independence Stadium (53,000)

Vince’s View: A battle of Top 25 teams? This is a much different looking match-up then when it was originally scheduled to be play in Week 1. Give the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs credit for beating BCS conference teams, and hammering them. This is a good team that can score. La Tech is 3rd in the country in scoring offense at 53.2 points per game. The thing is Texas A&M can score points in bunches as well (8th in the country – 44.6 per). I think the biggest mismatch is the A&M passing game with stud QB Johnny Manziel versus one of the nation’s worst pass defenses. Manziel can run too, and I think he will have success doing that as well. A&M will get more stops and win a high-scoring entertaining game late into the Louisiana night.

Winner: Texas A&M 49-35

 

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