Here at MrSEC.com we’ve been known to travel out to Las Vegas on occasion in order to chat with various bookmakers about the lines that they set. If you’ve read this site for any length of time, you know that we’re told just about every summer by just about every oddsmaker who’ll talk that:
1. The line is set purely to bring in equal amounts of cash on both sides.
2. The line is set with Las Vegas gamblers in mind. The casino companies don’t care what deal you get from Vinny the Nose in Valdosta. They make money off what people spend in their sportsbooks.
3. For that reason, West Coast schools often get a little more love when it comes to setting the opening lines. Ditto Big Ten schools with their enormous alumni bases. Simple math and geography suggest casinos are more likely to be visited by Ohio State and UCLA alums on a fall Saturday than they are by Western Kentucky grads.
4. Big names get a little bump, too, because they’re big names. “Softcore” gamblers are more likely to throw money at some school they’ve heard of so big-time, traditional programs like Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma often see their lines fudged a point or two.
All that said, many fans still believe that the opening line set by Las Vegas Sports Consultants — and many Vegas’ books start with that company’s number — is truly a prediction of who will win a game and by what margin. Whenever we write a piece trying to explain that that’s not what the books are doing and that they’re simply trying to make money based in large part off local gamblers’ perceptions of teams (re-read points 1-4 above), we always get a number of responses asking us something akin to this: “Then why are those numbers so often right?”
Honest answer? They’re not so often right.
We’ve gone back and looked at the 31 SEC versus SEC games played so far this season. In those games, the favored team actually covered 16 times (there was one “pick ‘em” game). Only nine times out of 31 SEC contests did the opening line come within seven points of the final margin of victory. That means just 29% of the lines have come within a touchdown of the actual margin.
But we remember when the guys in Vegas do come close. Out of those 31 contests, just once has the final margin matched the opening line. South Carolina opened as a 21-point favorite over Kentucky and won 38-17. That’s it. But you can bet a whole lot of people said, “Man, those guys really do know what they’re doing!” on that weekend.
Well, they do and they don’t.
They know how to set the line — based on public perception and who’ll be gambling in Nevada — in such a way as to bring in equal dollars on both teams and insure a bigger payday for themselves. They don’t know who’ll win and by what margin… at least not according to their opening lines. Then again, the folks in Vegas have never made that claim. They’ve told us over the years what they’re up to and most gamblers know it as well.
But for those folks out there who still think the Las Vegas line is an accurate predictor of what will happen on a given Saturday, here’s a record of all the SEC action so far in 2012:
| Game | Opening Line | Final Score | Favorite Covered? | Line Within 7 Points? |
| USC at VU | USC -8 | USC 17-13 | No | Yes |
| Aub at MSU | MSU -2 | MSU 28-10 | Yes | No |
| UF at A&M | A&M -2.5 | UF 20-17 | No | Yes |
| UGA at MU | UGA -3.5 | UGA 41-20 | Yes | No |
| Ala at Ark | Ala -13 | Ala 52-0 | Yes | No |
| UF at UT | Pick ‘Em | UF 37-20 | No Favorite | No |
| UK at UF | UF -23.5 | UF 38-0 | Yes | No |
| MU at USC | USC -9 | USC 31-10 | Yes | No |
| LSU at Aub | LSU -18.5 | LSU 12-10 | No | No |
| VU at UGA | UGA -16 | UGA 48-3 | Yes | No |
| Ark at A&M | A&M -11.5 | A&M 58-10 | Yes | No |
| UT at UGA | UGA -15.5 | UGA 51-44 | No | No |
| USC at UK | USC -21 | USC 38-17 | Push | Yes |
| UM at Ala | Ala -33 | Ala 33-14 | No | No |
| Ark at Aub | Aub -10.5 | Ark 24-7 | No | No |
| MSU at UK | MSU -14.5 | MSU 27-14 | No | Yes |
| LSU at UF | LSU -2.5 | UF 14-6 | No | No |
| A&M at UM | A&M -8.5 | A&M 30-27 | No | Yes |
| UGA at USC | USC -2.5 | USC 35-7 | Yes | No |
| VU at MU | MU -6.5 | VU 19-15 | No | No |
| Aub at UM | UM -1 | UM 41-20 | Yes | No |
| Ala at MU | Ala -17.5 | Ala 42-10 | Yes | No |
| UF at VU | UF -8.5 | UF 31-17 | Yes | Yes |
| UK at Ark | Ark -16 | Ark 49-17 | Yes | No |
| USC at LSU | LSU -4 | LSU 23-21 | No | Yes |
| UT at MSU | MSU -1.5 | MSU 41-31 | Yes | No |
| LSU at A&M | LSU -3 | LSU 24-19 | Yes | Yes |
| Aub at VU | VU -9 | VU 17-13 | No | Yes |
| USC at UF | UF -3.5 | UF 44-11 | Yes | No |
| Ala at UT | Ala -18.5 | Ala 44-13 | Yes | No |
| UGA at UK | UGA -27 | UGA 29-24 | No | No |
If the line is set at a point spread that will generate a balanced book (rule 1 above), isn't that, by definition, a consensus of where the money thinks the result will be? Granted the alumni base may put so much money on the homer school that it will skew the lines by the 1-4 points to get betting equilibrium, but for the remaining schools wouldn't it be close?
On the lines that move a lot between the open and the final line, is that a meaningful signal for whether a line gets covered?
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