We’re now a full week into college football season and we’ve seen 13 of the SEC’s 14 schools in action. Granted, some teams were playing patsies. Others were probably being as vanilla as they possibly could. And we still have no idea how some teams will fare on the road.
With so many unknowns, why not go ahead and try to predict which SEC squads have the best shots at making it through September unbeaten? Makes sense, no?
Most folks will admit that picking games week to week is tough enough. To do so weeks in advance — with no knowledge of who’ll be hurt or suspended — is true folly. But we’ll give her a shot anyway.
Here’s our take on which SEC squads have the best chance of remaining unscathed by the time October rolls ’round:
Alabama (1-0, win over Michigan)
Remaining September Schedule: Western Kentucky, at Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss
Comments: Not to disrespect Western Kentucky or FAU, but Bama should win those two games easily. Ditto against a thin Ole Miss squad. That leaves a road game at Arkansas as the key. Arkansas’ defense wasn’t great against little Jacksonville State last Saturday while everything about the Tide looked good against Michigan. But the Tide looked great for the first part of 2010, too, even trouncing Florida at home… before losing at South Carolina the next week. Arkansas shouldn’t be taken lightly, regardless of how good Bama looked on Saturday. Still, though, if you’re playing the odds, you gotta like Alabama’s chances.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 95%
Arkansas (1-0, win over Jacksonville State)
Remaining September Schedule: Louisiana-Monroe, Alabama, Rutgers, at Texas A&M
Comments: Louisiana-Monroe should be a win. Rutgers — with a first-year coach — should also be a victory. As for Alabama and a yet-to-be-seen Texas A&M team? That’s a bit trickier.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 50%
Auburn (0-1, loss to Clemson)
Remaining September Schedule: at Mississippi State, Louisiana-Monroe, LSU, Open Date
Comments: If Auburn doesn’t straighten things out quickly, the Tigers could possibly be 1-3 by the end of the month.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: Nil. The Tigers have already lost to Clemson.
Florida (1-0, win over Bowling Green)
Remaining September Schedule: at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, Kentucky, Open Date
Comments: Kevin Sumlin is sure the Gators went vanilla against Bowling Green last week. If so, they could still make it through September without a blemish. If not, road games at A&M and at Tennessee could both be losses. We think they were vanilla… but not that vanilla.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 50%
Georgia (1-0, win over Buffalo)
Remaining September Schedule: at Missouri, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
Comments: FAU should be a win. And UGA won’t overlook Vandy after last year’s tight contest and postgame brouhaha. A road game at Missouri with — we expect — several players suspended will be very difficult. And if Tennessee didn’t just play over its head in its opener, the Vols and Dawgs could stage quite the shootout in Athens at the end of the month.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 70%
Kentucky (0-1, loss to Louisville)
Remaining September Schedule: Kent State, Western Kentucky, at Florida, South Carolina
Comments: UK had better take care of Kent State and WKU because Florida and South Carolina will likely prove too much for Joker Phillips’ youthful squad.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: Zip. The Cats have already lost to Louisville.
LSU (1-0, win over North Texas)
Remaining September Schedule: Washington, Idaho, at Auburn, Towson State
Comments: Washington could be pesky and Auburn might be a tough road test, but LSU’s schedule looks pretty favorable to us.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 95%
Ole Miss (1-0, win over Central Arkansas)
Remaining September Schedule: UTEP, Texas, at Tulane, at Alabama
Comments: The Rebels struggled with Central Arkansas for a half and yielded plenty of yards and points. There’s a chance Ole Miss might not win again until October.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 1% if you believe in miracles.
Mississippi State (1-0, win over Jackson State)
Remaining September Schedule: Auburn, at Troy, South Alabama, Open Date
Comments: When three of your first four opponents are Jackson State, Troy and South Alabama you should go undefeated for the month. But it all depends on whether MSU can get over the hump and finally topple Auburn.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 75%
Missouri (1-0, win over Southeastern Louisiana)
Remaining September Schedule: Georgia, Arizona State, at South Carolina, at UCF
Comments: Mizzou looked terrific in its opener against a greatly overmatched foe. Georgia and Carolina will be a different type of contest altogether. Arizona State’s got a new coach and should be a win. UCF on the road could be trickier than most expect.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 40%
South Carolina (1-0, win over Vanderbilt)
Remaining September Schedule: East Carolina, UAB, Missouri, at Kentucky
Comments: USC’s defense should be good enough to bring home victories against ECU, UAB and UK. Missouri might be able to put up enough points to make life tough on the pass-challenged Gamecocks.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 75%
Tennessee (1-0, win over North Carolina State)
Remaining September Schedule: Georgia State, Florida, Akron, at Georgia
Comments: Georgia State and Akron are cupcakes. A home date with Florida and a road game at Georgia look like toss-ups if the Vol offense can be as consistently potent as it looked in Week One.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 50%
Texas A&M (0-0)
Remaining September Schedule: Florida, at SMU, South Carolina State, Arkansas
Comments: Throwing darts in the dark here. The Aggies’ opener was postponed so we haven’t seen Kevin Sumlin, his new system or his new redshirt freshman quarterback. SMU and SC State should be wins. Florida and Arkansas both travel to College Station, but a homefield advantage might not be enough to pull off a pair of wins.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: 30%
Vanderbilt (0-1, loss to South Carolina)
Remaining September Schedule: at Northwestern, Presbyterian, at Georgia
Comments: Presbyterian is a piece of pathetic scheduling, but Northwestern and Georgia on the road will be difficult.
Chance of Being Undefeated After September: Bupkes. The Dores already have a loss to South Carolina.
Final Tally:
Alabama, LSU– 95%
Mississippi State, South Carolina — 75%
Georgia — 70%
Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee — 50%
Missouri — 40%
Texas A&M — 30%
Ole Miss — 1%
Auburn, Kentucky, Vanderbilt — 0% as they’ve already lost
(UPDATE — Folks, it’s ridiculous that I have to write this, but in the age of comment boxes, I must. The above piece is basically taking a look team by team at what we believe to be each squad’s chance of going undefeated in September. We’re not doing math to determine actual percentages. This is a ballpark exercise. To us, Alabama has a 95% of winning all their games in the month. We think they’re that good. Arkansas — who Bama plays — is given a 50/50 shot at going undefeated. Why? How? Because Arkansas would need to take care of business at Kyle Field and upset Alabama in addition to handling two lesser foes on its docket. We give them a 50% chance of pulling that feat. If you want to break out a computer and try to make the percentages add up… have at it. But that’s not the point of this piece. Never was.
In horse racing, for example, each horse is given odds. You don’t add all the horses’ odds up as one big total.)
