Boom.
For all those who claimed Clemson and Florida State would definitely fly the ACC coop and join the Big XII along with Notre Dame, well, uh, the college landscape is about to shift in the opposite direction. In a big, big way.
Notre Dame will depart the Big East and head to the 14- (and soon to be 15-) school Atlantic Coast Conference. The Irish had played in the Big East in all sports but football. They had agreed to face three Big East members per year on the gridiron. In the ACC, Notre Dame will also be a full member in all sports except for football. But the Irish will play five ACC teams per season.
“We have monitored the changing conference landscape for many months and have concluded that moving to the ACC is the best course of action for us,” said Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick.
What’s it mean?
* The Big East just lost a little more lustre.
* The ACC just landed one of the biggest brands in sports. Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami and the other “football-first” schools in that league will love the opportunity to occasionally clash with the Irish at home and in South Bend.
* The ACC will also increase its exit fee for any school wanting out to a whopping $50 million. Again, for those who came here and blasted this site during the offseason because we dared to call all those “FSU/Clemson to the Big XII is a done deal” stories poppycock… we expect you to come back to our comment boxes and apologize as so many of you promised at the time to do. (Actually, no, we don’t think a single one of the folks who attacked this site will man-up and admit that they were totally wrong.)
* To add another pair of annual games to its schedule, Notre Dame will have to say bye-bye to some old foes. Purdue? Navy? Southern Cal? Michigan or Michigan State? Something’s gotta give.
* The Big XII will remain a 10-team league for the foreseeable future. For all the bluster of Texas AD DeLoss Dodds, he’ll never see Notre Dame join his school’s league. (Sorta like he can’t even see his own Longhorn Network on television.)
* You can also put to bed all those “Virginia Tech and NC State to the SEC” rumors that so many sites have floated out in order to grab pageviews. Ain’t happening. And, yes, we also called malarkey on those when they first started to percolate.
The college landscape is changing again. Just not in the way that many people expected.
Not so fast, all it would take is one team leaving the ACC to start things rolling again. If FSU was so happy why not vote yes for the 50M exit fee increase:
FSU Board of Trustees chair Allan Bense told Warchant.com that Florida State voted against the ACC's exit fee increase from $20 million to $50 million.
There are also rumors that Clemson, VA Tech, and GA Tech voted against it too.
John,
There has been some chatter on ACC blogs (comments) that they wish they could pluck Vandy from the SEC over a UConn or Rutgers as a 16th member.....
You think we could ever see Slive try to buy them out, or maybe they go willingly so they can finally be more competitive (once Franklin bolts)? We could pick up a school to take their place, easy. Maybe a downgrade on academics, but with A&M and Mizzou now who needs 'em?
Best case (and a long shot now) FSU, worst case a Baylor/ TCU who would still be great academically and at least average in football, with a much much better fan base...
Thanks, and keep up the good work.
With some ACC teams going to 10 BCS games each year (9 conference plus Notre Dame) will the SEC be forced to go to a 9 game schedule?
Hey @John at MrSEC ,
Agree on the ND not being a great game changer and I'm not even sure of the $50MM being that big of a deal at this point. We saw Mizzou, TAMU, WVU, Pitt, and Cuse all negotiate down their exit fee; is $50 MM just bluster at this point when at most going off the last few deals you might pay 25% of that once the lawyers get involved? Thoughts?
The 50 million might ensure no one leaves the ACC, but it proves that some wanted to. Otherwise it makes no sense at all.
ND is using the ACC and playing Swoffy for a fool if you ask me. They ain't joining.
@Clemsnman nobody wanted to leave, the vote was unanimous. Ok maybe Clemson wanted to leave because they were tired of GT owning their asses, but it ain't happening son, now assume the position... Forever.
@Clemsnman Just because the announced vote is unanimous, does not mean the original vote is unanimous. Many times when conferences vote on matters, a vote is taken. If it passes, the conference does another formal vote to have it be unanimous so that when it is presented to the press it looks like everyone is standing together and there are no dissenting voices.
I'm bummed. I know John has been saying for a long time stay at 14 but I was still holding out hope of getting to 16 with Va Tech and UNC (yes, currently having issues and not great at football, but still better on the whole than NC State).
I understand the "trouble dealing with 14 as it is" but I think 16 is actually easier than 14. Four four-team divisions makes scheduling much easier than two seven-team divisions (in my opinion, I'm guessing John disagrees).
Anyway, I believe today is the day that dream dies. Not because of adding ND itself (which I think will actually create/inflame tension over time due to their very much favorable treatment) but because of the new $50M exit fee. That's crazy. It's like signing up to be a prisoner. Don't get that at all from the other schools.
Oh well, 14 it is.
You don't get it. The exit fee could be 0 and nobody would leave. The SEC would have died to have taken FSU or Clemson. Slive tried, and he failed, and he had to settle for lousy Mizzou. No team was EVER going to leave the ACC for ANY other conference. The 50 mil is merely a publïcally visible response to the infinite amount of slanderous bullshit that was floated out there all summer by scummy bloggers and butthurt big 12 fans. The reality is every ACC school prefers the ACC to the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 (LOL @ Big 12)
Hehehehe. Yep, that's it. Since no one wants to leave lets just all agree to have a $50 million plus exit fee. Right. Oh, and I seem to recall a bowl game last year between Mizzou and North Carolina. Can't remember who blew who out of the stadium that night. Hehehhehehe.
it's not just $50 million - it's 3 times the annual operating budget, which CURRENTLY is a little MORE than $50 million... but will rise over time as operating budgets rise.
It is really good news for the ACC, bad news for the BE, I was really hoping that VT and NCState would jump ship to the SEC to go to four team pods with semis and championship but that is dead with the new buy out price and ND coming in. i actually liked those rumors to balance the SEC schedules better in the long run, that is the NCstate and VT rumors.
We will have to wait and see how it all plays out now.. but i hear a hollow version of TAPS for the death of the BE as a Football conference.. we are heading back to a big 5 and away from there touted Big 6.
John,
I have seen some other people float the idea IF the SEC went to 16 teams that they would go to 4 divisions and have a semifinal game to determine who plays for the SEC championship. This would allow the SEC schedule to remain at 8 games while being able to see teams more than once every 12 years (only 3 permanent "division" opponents). Do you think there is any way this could ever happen? It could also lead to a "final 4" plus an SEC championship game, which would only increase revenue. I know the NCAA would have to grant a waiver for 2 games to decide the conference championship, but I always liked the idea.
DB
I actually wrote of that possibility back in 2008. But the landscape has changed since then. I don't believe the SEC wants to go to 16 schools, first of all. Second, you're correct that the NCAA would have to hand over a waiver to the league to allow the in-league semifinals. Third, the new SEC Network that's coming down the pike will provide so much money that adding a round of SEC playoffs would no longer be necessary for financial reasons. Finally, the new playoff in college football already means that an SEC team could play 15 games. There's no way the league's presidents would set-up a situation that would require a college athlete to play 16 games.
Thanks for reading,
John
@John at MrSEC @db20207 I agree that the semifinal would not provide substainally increased revenue, but that is not the only part of the equation. Adding 17 million people into the SEC footprint (NC, VA) would allow the SEC network to charge significantly more for those 2 markets, thus generating more money. Does that make it worth it? I'm not sure, but I'm sure people at the SEC are looking into it. Also, don't discount the fact that the people at the SEC are some of the most forward thinking in all of sports. They were the first to add a championship game, so why not be the first to add a semifinal? It's possible that the league's presidents put their foot down over the 15/16 issue, but it seems kind of like an arbitrary distinction doesn't it? You've already got teams practicing from August until January. That would not change, just the number of games played.
And before people wonder why ND chose the ACC over say the B12 or B10, ND is closer as a institution to the schools in the ACC than any other conference. There are 5 private schools in the ACC (SYR, BC, Duke, WF, and Miami). There are two traditional rivals already in the league - Pitt and BC. Then you look at population of the states that they are joining. The population of the B10 states is shrinking, and it would have locked ND into an area of the growth that is not growing. This would not bode well for future students to fill the classrooms and pay tuition and donate to the school. The only major growth states in the B12 are OK and TX - the rest are flatlining like the B10 for long term growth. The ACC covers the entire eastern seaboard, and has growth states like VA, NC, SC, GA, FL in the footprint. This is good for future recruiting of students and allows the institution to partner with similar academic profile schools (which is important to the gusy with the bow ties). ND needs to have the biggest national profile possible for long term success both academically and athletically. Games in any sport against L'ville, Cincy, UH, SMU, UCF, USF just were not going to get TV eyeballs or fill the stands.
Good point about the existing rivalries, the "Holy War" is one of my favorites. So many great games through the years and the '93 game sure raised it a notch for the Irish fans. Really looking forward to seeing more classics, especially with more at stake now.
There is no reason to jump to 16 in other sports. 15 works very nice.
I am sure that they will split the basketball into three divisions - The Northest - Pitt, BC, ND, Syr and VT. The Atlantic - Md, VA, UNC, NCst, Duke, and the Coastal - Clemson, GT, Miami, FSU and WF.
I forgot how easy the scheduling works at 15 for all sports but football. You play your division home and home. One other division on the road, and the other at home for a total of 18 games. You play each school every year, and it maintains important basketball rivalries.
First it was me just stating a fact, not reporting. I was pointing out the fact that there was no need to expand past 15 teams because scheduling would be very easy with 15 schools. As has been stated, the ACC will be doing two permanent home/home rivarlies, two rotating home/home games and then 5 home and away games each year. Bascially the same format that I mentioned when the announcement was made and before any details were released.
Well, someone asked if the ACC would now go looking for #16. I think the answer is no, at least not until ND decides to marry their football team to the league. Football revenue drives the bus. Period. A 15-team ACC basketball schedule will have to be hashed out but my guess is there won't be a 16th team added till the BigEast totally collapses.
As for the SEC staying at 14, I'd say definitely for the time being. ND's decision isn't the disruptive force some would like to think it is. Besides, getting comfortable with a 14 team league has already created a number of growing pains for the league and I doubt anyone in Birmingham, or the respective university presidents, have any appetite for growing again so soon.
But as a disclaimer, anything could happen. Greed is driving the bus now and greed needs money like a crack-addict needs cocaine.
John:
As always, love your site. A couple of questions for you: Do you think the ACC will hold at 15 or will they look for a 16th school, and what affect will this have on the SEC staying at 14 or looking for two more members?
I think the ACC will stay put at this point. The league added Pitt and Syracuse as a means of fending off a possible attack from the Big East... as only one East Coast league was going to survive and thrive. Now that league has added -- whether folks 'round here like it or not -- the biggest brand in college sports. I can't imagine the league moving again anytime soon. The ACC passed on West Virginia last year and UConn would appear to be the next best fit for the league... but the folks at Boston College have been adamant that they want to be the ACC's lone New England-area school. Therefore, I think the ACC remains a 14-team football league and a 15-team league in every other sport. (And folks can argue all they like about whether Notre Dame SHOULD be the biggest brand in sports, but the fact is every league would kill to land the Irish... which proves the point.)
UConn and Rutgers had better hope the Big Ten decides to expand East or else they'll be stuck in a so-so conference that stretches across the continent.
As for the SEC, I've said for a long, long time that the league has no plans to go to 16. It moved to 13 because grabbing a foothold in Texas was just too good to pass up. The SEC and A&M had flirted with one another since the mid-80s and that one was just a matter of time. A 13-team league would have been unwieldy, so a 14th school was needed and Missouri -- with its big TV markets -- made the most sense. (The SEC, too, passed on West Virginia.)
The league has found that 14 isn't an easy number. And while the league will eventually get its new television package and network, for now the schools in the conference stand to make a bit less money because there will now be more slices from the overall revenue pie. There's really no reason for the SEC to expand to 16 -- a number that's never before worked at the major college level -- and there aren't any good dance partners to pick up even if there was a need to expand.
I personally think that if anything happens in the next year or two, it will be a Big East break-up which sends a few teams -- possibly -- to the Pac-12, Big XII or Big Ten. But I think even that's unlikely at this point.
I'd bet the house on the SEC staying at 14 for a while. And I've been saying that since last fall. People I've spoken to at various schools across the league have all made it clear that they don't even know how a 14-team league will work. I take that to mean they have ZERO interest in jumping straight to 16 before they get a better idea of what 14 means.
Thanks for reading the site,
John
@sojourner Depends on the conference. The Big 12 can be beheaded by several other conferences. They need that GOR else they will fall apart. The ACC buyout is simply a response to a summers worth of misinformation. Slive tried to get FSU or Clem last year when there was no buyout. He failed, and was forced to settle for a lousy Mizzou that nobody really wanted. The Big 10 certainly didn't. You'll never get Texas, SEC academics are too shit. Which means no Okie/Okie St. Truth hurts I know, deal with it.
Nope. No exit fee in the SEC. And you're correct in your assessment.
Thanks for reading,
John
@John at MrSEC @sojourner But doesn't the SEC require the grant of media rights for a number of years and the ACC doesn't? Amounts to the same thing if they do.
Nope. Currently, each school in the SEC owns its own Tier 3 media rights and can cut whatever deal it likes for those rights.
Now, when the SEC Network launches -- and folks from ESPN to Fox to NBC/Comcast are all eager get in on that action -- the league will have to ask its schools to turn over those Tier 3 rights to the league... but that will be for the purposes of creating a network, not as a means of binding folks together, as was the case in the Big XII.
Thanks for reading,
John
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the big news here is not notre dame. its the $50 mil straitjacket/leg irons the acc is imposing on it members. guess they were really getting worried.
Wow. This is big news and there didn't appear to be any leaks beforehand. You are correct that the Big East is the biggest loser here. I also believe the Big 10 took a pretty sizable hit as well. Not only does this make it almost 100% sure the Big 10 will never get Notre Dame football but, as you say, the Big 10 most likely will lose many of their games with Notre Dame. Lastly, a $50 million exit fee --- not exactly a ringing endorsement of the stability of your Conference. Is the SEC the only Conference with no stated exit fees?
big f'ing deal! notre dame's market value begins and ends with football, which they're keeping to themselves. for example, how much would it be worth to get texas's b.ball team w/o the football? so. cal's? oklahoma's? how much did having notre dame's so-so b.ball program help the big east (which by the way is a b-ball league)? as events go, this is strictly below the fold.
@sojourner Agreed if the deal didn't include 5 football games per year. Having that part of the deal means the ACC gets to sell 2-3 of those games to ESPN.
John, do we know if that deal specifies how many of those games are at the ACC school? I just assumed it would alternate between 2 or 3. Is that confirmed anywhere?
I haven't seen it confirmed, but I would assume Notre Dame will get two at home one year, three the next. Keeps all television partners happy.
John
@John at MrSEC @sojourner An interesting note here: http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/college_sports/college_football/article/Notre-Dame-only-settled-for-ACC-to-avoid-Big-12-3861274.php
Quote: Notre Dame now will play every ACC school at least once every three seasons in a football game and travel for a “road game” against them every sixth season. Look for a lot of those “road games” to be played in large NFL stadiums rather than on ACC campuses.
I can't tell if he knows the home/away will be balanced or if he's just assuming that. Also assumed is that they would play each team an equal amount. So, Duke and UNC as often as FSU and Clemson. Why do that? Interesting note about NFL stadiums instead of ACC stadiums. I'm not a huge fan of pulling games away from the on-campus atmosphere, but when that on-campus atmosphere is in the ACC maybe it isn't as much to lose.
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I think the rest of the ACC will disagree with that statement. Getting the Irish to come in for a home game every once in a while and the increased eyeballs from ACC home games involving ND? Should be worth something when it comes time to renegotiate
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