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Stanford AD To Take Over As Big 12 Commish; What’s He Gonna Do?

Meet Bob Bowlsby.  He’s the current Stanford athletic director who is about to named the new commissioner of the Big 12.  Upon taking that job, he’ll inherit more problems than an MIT math book.

Will he be the next Larry Scott or Mike Slive — a trend-setter among conference leaders?  Or will he be the next Dan Beebe — a Jefferson Davis type cursed with trying to hold together a “nation” of schools that would prefer to exist as independent states rather than as an actual, you know, nation?

The problems the 60-year-old Bowlsby inherits are obvious.  Texas views itself as the flagship university of the solar system.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State seem bound together, but both have flirted and played footsie with other conferences the past few summers.  Schools like Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech and now TCU hope only for silence and stability, scared witless that UT and/or OU and OSU might bolt and leave them for dead, like a cattle’s skull in the dusts of the Texas panhandle.  And then there’s West Virginia.  The Mountaineers bring very few cable households to the league and they’re about 900 miles from their nearest Big 12 “natural” rival, Iowa State.

On the positive side, the league has glued and pasted its media rights together for six years in an attempt to hang on long enough for the ground beneath it to settle.  That’s a plus… at least for six years.  Television revenue from ESPN and Fox — two networks who don’t want to see the league blown to bits (as the repercussions from such an event would force contracts with other leagues to open up elsewhere all at the same time) — will be good as well.  In addition, there’s been  some talk of a new Big 12 television network though it seems no two schools have a single shared idea on how to get such a channel off the ground.

Speaking of networks, that just leads back to more problems.  The Longhorn Network remains a burr in the saddle for all the Big 12 schools not located in Austin.  And now fielding teams in just five states, the league’s appeal to viewers and recruits across America will most surely begin to dwindle.  For that matter, the league’s pool of talent to draw from is shrinking as people leave the North and Midwest for the South and West.  The Big 12 may sit on vast oil reserves but it no longer sits on a deep well of NFL-caliber prospects.

So what’s a man like Bowlsby to do?  First, he needs to get the league’s presidents to sing a verse or two of “Kumbaya.”  The remaining Big 12 presidents, ADs and coaches have shared more suspicious looks and stink-eyes over the years than the Cowboys and the Earps in “Tombstone.”  A cooling off period is necessary first and foremost.

Once Bowlsby realizes that can’t actually be attained when Texas brass are involved, he’ll need to set out on Mission #2 — growing the league’s footprint.

In typical Big 12 fashion, West Virginia’s entry into the league last fall was almost undone by conference politics.  Backroom deals between Oklahoma officials and Kentucky politicians almost pushed Louisville in and West Virginia out of the league.  In the end, WVU won out, but Louisville remains a likely dance partner for the league at some point.  It opens up another television market, albeit a small one.  It opens up the Kentuckiana region for recruiting purposes.  Louisville would also give West Virginia a rival just a tad bit closer than Ames, Iowa.

If the Big 12 adds Louisville, the Big East will take a further hit, but we wouldn’t expect any of the other big four conferences — ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC — to react.  The Big 12 and the Big East are beneath the others now on the food chain.  Only major moves by those lesser leagues could lead to changes higher up on said chain.

Like, say, adding Notre Dame.

As we noted yesterday, we believe that conference commissioners hoping to avoid future shake-ups and further realignment will eventually yield to Notre Dame, give them some more special treatment, and pray that they stay just as they are — an independent in football.  The Big Ten and the Big 12 — two leagues that covet the Irish — might be the only two conferences willing to play rough with Notre Dame in the hopes of forcing them to join one league or the other.

If that happens and Notre Dame enters the Big 12 or the Big Ten, then you might see some more major shifting across the college landscape.  If the Irish settle on the Big Ten, that league would surely look elsewhere for a 14th member and that could mean a raid on the ACC (Maryland) or Big East (Rutgers or UConn).  If it’s the ACC, bigger changes could result.  If it’s the Big East?  Meh.

If the Notre Dame and Louisville both join the Big 12 and bring that conference’s tally of schools back up to its actual title we do not believe that would set off mass hysteria, mass expansion and mass realignment.  It could, but we don’t think it would.

More likely, here’s guessing the Big 12 will add Louisville and Cincinnati to its mix.  That would give the league a bit more stability and it would further destabilize the Big East.  Such a move by Bowlsby would make it clear that what was once the “big six” conferences had become the “big five” and his league would be part of the “in” crowd.  That would be a solid start for the Big 12′s new commissioner.  It would have little impact on the SEC.

Landing Notre Dame, however, would suggest that the Big 12 has picked a go-getter as its new high sheriff.  Such a move may or may not impact Mike Slive’s league (again, we think probably not).  But the goals for Bolwsby are clear — unify the base and grow his league’s footprint.

How he goes about that will tell us a lot about a man most casual fans had never heard of before yesterday.

 


29 comments
jwolfe
jwolfe

You have to quit looking at this through political glasses.  The SEC could use this realignment to become the top power rated conference, that's even better than having just the top team in the nation.  The Big 12 and the Big 10 and the Pac 12 are within reach of claiming not just the top Power rating (Big 12 now) but could put teams in the National Championship game 2013 or 2014.  So far the SEC is on track here but getting on top and staying there are things you have to do, not just say.  The SEC should be able to recruit and coach as good as anybody in the new football world.  One thing is for sure, just having Ala. or LSU in your conference is not going to keep the news media on your side.  Everybody in the conference has to improve and challenge for the title, otherwise the other conferences will seem more exciting and then when the top SEC team has a bad day outside conference play the media will have no ammunition.  One huge false idea the SEC has is that the nation will vote for defense over offense when the comparisons start looking close.  

OldArmy
OldArmy

 @jwolfe Understand what your point is jwolfe, but that was about as political a comment as any on the topic so far. And you know, that is just the way it is. No matter which way you slice this pie, attack this hill, work this room, or whatever cliche you want to use, no angle in tackling this problem is free of politics. College ball IS politics. We hate to admit it, but it is.

 

Two great things about your post  though,  (1)  it confirms that moving to the SEC was the right move for us Ags. Finally, a Conference that things like a Conference, and (2) its nice to know  who the Machiavellian thinkers are.

 

 

jwolfe
jwolfe

 @OldArmy I should have identified myself as a Missouri Tiger watcher.  The move of TA&M and Missouri at the same time should be good timing for everybody.  I HOPE that old SEC fans see the potential for the realignment as clearly as the presidents and ADs.  The Missouri Texas A&M series might come to be seen as one of the big saves in this change.  Right now the only thing I am sure of is that the SEC talks balance and equality and the Big 12 doesn't  aspire to such in any way.    So who are the "end justifies the means" people in this money machine and who are the least jaded?

OldArmy
OldArmy

 @jwolfe  @buddha22 Just one thought. The Big 12 was a great geogrophical fit for A&M. In less than 4 hours drive you got to Baylor and tu, 6 hours to the Oklahoma and OSU guys, and 7 to Tech, although I cannot for thr life of me figure out why you would go there. 

 

How many visitor tickets do you think Baylor fans bought on average? About 800 a year. Tech was pretty much the same, Point is, more Arkansas fans, by the many thousands, came to see their team play against us in a non conference game three years in a row, than did our Big 12 neighbors for decades. (As Winston Churchill said, "I like pigs. Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us, but pigs see us as equals.")

 

Its a cultural thing more than a geographic thing for us this time. Would love to play in a conference you did not have to book a flight to every away game.

jwolfe
jwolfe

 @buddha22  @OldArmy  @jwolfe Exactly right from you both.  In the NCAA conferences are the closest thing to leverage over television money and public relations tools.  I liked what the Big 12 did last year with the commercial "This is how we play".  There may be any number of new media tools used to make cash flow through any given conference.  I believe the SEC has a philosophy about competitive member programs.  I believe they know that a few bad violation apples can hurt everyone.  Missouri and TA&M fit the their 'new world order' for a lot of reasons more reason than this.  No conference realigned better geographically for as long as I can remember.  Maybe the Big 10 move was equal.  Fans of other programs are looking at this and saying how is this going to help my university football program win the SEC, make a big bowl game, or otherwise be nationally recognized?  Missouri had years when they were nationally recognized before the Big 8 became the Big 12 and after.  So it is hard for the average long time fan to appreciate what the conference did to help them reach a national number one ranking again recently.  No sane fan can complain about winning a division title unless the conference only has ie eight members.  What fans don't see is the change in national trends and why conferences must change or die.  The Big 12 stubbornly held on to a plan that benefitted Texas and to a lesser degree Oklahoma more than anyone else.  In a 12 team league this is harder to accept than in an 8 team league and in a modern era where television means so much it not sufficient to tell your conference members, "Here is our 700 million dollar tv deal, now you go do your own, cause everybody going to do it someday".  I tell this story because the SEC has it's own history of a something less that parody.  In the future fair competition will be one of the important concepts in keeping a super-conference super.  AND all the fans in the SEC who are resistant to having two more competitors in the mix will only be satisfied by seeing the whole conference grow in bowl bids, rankings, draft picks, NFL player success, and recruiting power.  It is for sure that 14 teams are not going to tie for the conference championship, nor seven for the division title every year.  On this subject the SEC is going to have to make division titles decided by division play to keep everybody in a fair title hunt every year.

buddha22
buddha22

@OldArmy @jwolfe Dan Devine, well they plucked him out of Arizona and he spent a great decade for MU football but as jwolfe said, lack of support for facility development gave him pause and he moved on to Green Bay. Still #2 all time in MU wins behind Faurot (but not for long) but will always be remembered fondly. It is no surprise to me that Mike Slive oversaw adding A&M and MU and the value it brought to the conference. That said, I also understand the collective thought of existing members for our programs to prove it on the field and not promising the moon but I am confident both programs will show their mettle. Culturally, there is a strong fit, perhaps more readily accepted for A&M but time will show MIZZOU is a very strong fit. Enjoy the give and take here, tickled to have found this site early in the process!

OldArmy
OldArmy

 @jwolfe Dan Devine? Lord that makes me feel old, I can remember him as a coach (but not at Mizzou). Funny you should mention refs. I laughed at the Nebraska guys complaining about bad calls in the run up to leaving the Big 12 (and yep, that includes their game with us), but now I'm not so sure I should be offering to eat some humble pie. 

 

Nebraska always had great fans, but man I just can't get up a lot of love for Bo. Colorado is located in a town that would make Berkley, CA look normal, and it rubs off on their students (can you say Ward Churchill), so just can't really feel it for them, but I do now better appreciate why they left. 

 

A&M would have left the SWC and or B12 decades ago. We had an AD and President who were trying, but a lot of things did not go our way on that. Arkansas' administration actually tried to pull us out with them. Hard to love a pig, but those Razorbacks have their days.

 

 I'm really not too worried about championships, as a Ag that's not productive. I'm in to the SEC because a couple of guys from Mizzou and A&M can share the fun of the game without the trash. So far, the Mizzou posts show you guys are more like us than anybody else in the B12. We don't have Mizzou jokes at A&M, but you can feel free to tell a few Aggie jokes to break the ice with your new SEC kin. A&M owns the copyrights to all of 'em, so we make money off the deal.

 

Take care. 

jwolfe
jwolfe

 @OldArmy Thanks, I didn't read it as preachy.  Maybe good football follows some politics and maybe some politics follows good football at different points in time.  A smart coach or a great recruiter or both can hold a program near the political top for a long time.  I wonder how long a troop of talking heads can keep a football program in the top 20?

      My impression of other Missouri football fans is that they feel under-served by their college administrators going all the way back to the Dan Divine days in the 1960s.   They have a lot of class and patience however, allowing mediocre coaches to have long tenures (7 years) to get their systems established.  I really don't know the A&M fans or administrators that well yet.  It's not right that a  good coach got fired there last year.  I really liked that team he put together.  I think they were playing a bit ahead of themselves when they were fresh and trying to put teams away.  I don't think they were playing at a game pace then collapsing late.  I think this was a misperception by the media and some fans and there were zero signs of weariness.  The coaching staff made sound late game plans.

      I knew something smelled bad when both Colorado and Nebraska left  same time, but where was the media on this?  Losing Colorado was awful, except getting 5 downs where they cheated at Missouri to save a National Championship bid, (with a lot of help from the refs) I always liked Colorado.  Nebraska fans and lately the coaches took a bad turn toward bad sportsmanship.  Su's injurious tackle on Blaine Gabbert cost Missouri a top 5 finishing place that year.  Su is now the bad sportsmanship polster boy in the NFL.  

     Everyone is nostalgic about the old Big 8 but it was never as good as it could have been with OK and NE trading championships in that league at everyone else's expense.  When another program is challenging and the league let's a ref's bad call maintain the status quo or sends a program to a lesser bowl than they deserve or let's a program bring in an illegal ringer without long term penalties, it's a quasi-fixed league.  Fair competition and the perception of fair competition mean a lot to a league.

     You are being a gentleman to put it that way, so I will say it for you.  T A&M will challenge for a SEC division title soon.  No need to apologize for this, as i said "The reason Presidents and AD's picked TA&M was to make the league stronger" and get a strong recruiting and tv market.  Fans in the SEC who feel it's their turn to win will be helped to the top by the new alignment by de-centralization, not piled deeper in the pecking order. 

OldArmy
OldArmy

 @jwolfe Apologies J, I re-read my post and it does sound a little preachy. No, I figured you were Mizzou faithful (I have been getting my butt handed to me by Buddha over Faurot South on another string), what I was trying to impart was no matter which way you slice the conference issue, its all about politics. And that is not a slam, the ability to work the room so to speak sometimes separates the winners from the losers. Your "The SEC could use this realignment to become the top power rated conference, that's even better than having just the top team in the nation," was what I was referencing as Machiavellian. And I liked it. I am getting the impression that the Tigers are pretty adept at working the room BTW. Great move for Mizzou coming in, and A&M was fortunate you guys were the 14th. Took some heat off us and confirmed something was rotten in the B12. I have a new found respect for the guys at Nebraska and Colorado. Here's hoping we merit the acceptance.

Peach n Mango
Peach n Mango

It's Louisville and Cincy.  It's the only thing they can do.

 

Then the Big East will once again raid a smaller conference and then once again that conference will raid a smaller conference.

 

This isn't rocket science.

NekiEcko
NekiEcko

John, help me out here I know that you might here rumors that Big XII wants to go after Clemson and FSU. Actually I cant see Clemson and Flordia State going to Big XII, but I dont know why Big XII even thinks that. What is your take about it.

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

NekiEcko...

 

Don't believe what you read on messageboards.  Anything's possible, but why would three Southern schools in a stable conference -- Georgia Tech's been mentioned, too -- want to move to a Midwestern league that's as unstable as a fault line?  

 

West Virginia joined the Big 12 because it was scared to death the Big East would blow up and the ACC and the SEC had no interest in them.  TCU -- ditto... plus they'll be playing some old SWC rivals.

 

I can't see any ACC schools jumping over the SEC in order to land in a league that's been dominated, owned, strong-armed and reigned over by Texas since its inception.

 

But again... never say never.

 

Thanks for reading,

John

Moooo
Moooo

 @John at MrSEC There is indeed some degree of truth to the rumors of FL State and Clemson.  Clemson was a participant on a conference call at the Big 12 Meetings that just wrapped up in Phoenix. The lure of $$ and the disdain of being in a basketball-centric conference are too much to overlook.  Don't be surprised if this happens over the next m

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

Moooo...

 

When Clemson and Florida State wind up in the Big 12, I'll be willing to admit I was wrong and that all of the folks I've spoken to in the SEC, in the ACC, and at top levels of the sports marketing industry were all wrong.

 

But I know I've seen reports like this regarding half the BIg 12 being a "done deal" to merge with the Pac-12... that the Big Ten was definitely going to 14 teams would definitely include Missouri... and that the SEC was in negotiations with Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and NC State.

 

All were bunk and messageboard chatter.  I think this is, too.  So do the aforementioned folks I've spoken to.

 

But we'll see.

 

Thanks for reading the site,

John

USCTraveler
USCTraveler

 @John at MrSEC 

 

John-

 

the FSU and Clemson talk is being driven by the apparent disparity in the tv deals between the B12's new deal ($20m per school per year for Tier 1 and 2, with Tier 3 left for the schools) vs the ACC's new deal (supposedly only going to be around $13m for all 3 Tiers).

 

FSU, Clemson and Miami are all losing the monetary and facilities arms race to their in-state SEC rivals (as well as to Bama and UGA), and all are hurting for money.  FSU ran a $2.4m loss in their athletic department last year.  They're talking about having to cut back their recruiting budget by 10% as one example of how that plays out.

 

If the new tv deals come in as rumored, the money difference between the B12 and ACC is going to be too big for those schools not to seriously consider jumping.  After all, FSU and Miami are not old-line ACC schools, and Clemson, like the other two, has always been a football-first fish out of water in the basketball culture of the ACC.

 

Don't be surprised if there's fire underneath this smoke.  

 

After all, this time a year ago, Texas A&M to the SEC was nothing but messageboard chatter.

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

USCTraveler...

 

I'm aware that the TV talk is creating this buzz.  I still don't buy it.  But as I said, never say never.

 

As far as Texas A&M is concerned, that's not a good comparison.  A&M and the SEC -- as we traced on this site several summers ago -- had flirted, talked, and negotiated with one another for a quarter of a century.  From John David Crow and Joe Dean trying to push the issue in the late-80s right up until last summer, A&M and the SEC were destined to marry.

 

Heck, we wrote in 2010 that A&M to the SEC was a DEFINITE and was just a matter of time.  

 

http://www.mrsec.com/2010/07/am-to-the-sec-still-possible/

 

Thanks for reading the site,

John

MoKelly
MoKelly

I am clearly no expert, but I can't imagine Notre Dame going to the Big 12. I don't see the appeal whatsoever. Big 10 --- OK --- I can get that one.

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

MoKelly...

 

If possible, I think Notre Dame remains independent, as I wrote.  But there are some pluses to the unstable Big 12:

 

 

1.  It's easier to win a 12-team league (if ND and another school join) than a 14-team league.

 

2.  It's easier to dominate the league if you're one of just three power schools in the league -- along with Oklahoma and Texas -- AND if the Big 12 had to beg you to join.

 

3.  Unlike the slowly dying Midwest of the Big Ten, the Big 12 could at least open up a recruiting zone in Texas for Irish football.

 

 

I don't see it happening.  But as I always say... anything's possible.

 

Thanks for reading,John 

Brazos
Brazos

Texas still produces plenty of NFL talent.  They may be 9th in per capita production behind several SEC states but the state still produces more NFL players than any other state (followed closely by Florida but both have produce far more than double of the #3 state, Georgia).  And Texas will get the pick of the litter of the prospects in it's home state.  Texas is the super model that everyone wants to marry (and a rich super model at that that doesn't need to marry for the lifestyle it wants - to continue that analogy).  Point being, there is a reason Texas acts like a prima dona and it is annoying if you are outside looking in but from their point of view, why would you settle for anything less?  With the recent additions of Missouri and Texas A&M and the already respected Vanderbilt, Florida and Georgia, the SEC academic clout is rising thought the national stigma of football being more important than academic integrity is a hard thing to shake.  It's a long shot but time is on our side to add Texas eventually.  Though they would have to abandon the Longhorn network so the net gain of the added SEC TV revenues would have to outweigh the Big12 TV revenues plus the 2nd and 3rd tier rights produced by the Longhorn Network - unlikely).  

 

Perhaps the BIG12 schools did this in hope of eventually merging the PAC12 and the BIG12 - that would be cumbersome and unwieldy, at best.  No easy solutions though I still think Texas wants to eventually be a member of the PAC16.  

OldArmy
OldArmy

Adding Texas to the SEC would be a long shot, at best. The Horns are by far the biggest cash cow in college ball. Not sure it is going to matter what conference they end up in, their marketing strategy over the decades has pretty much cornered the action in the state. No other school comes close, and Texas is the biggest single football market in the country (and if it isn't, its close), and the Horns dominate it. Over 90% of the folks walking around with Horn t-shirts, caps, jogging shorts, etc. have never come within 200 miles of the campus. When you think about it, their fan base gives them a freedom of action few other schools can match. While the SEC is more about strength through association with others with common bonds, the Horns are just about the only school that could actually make more money by becoming an independent. Not a fan by any stretch of the imagination, but facts are facts, and I don't see the Horns giving up that dominance (over every other team in the nation, not just in Texas) in fund raising, for any conference. Times could change, but......

Brazos
Brazos

 @OldArmy Completely agree.  As I said a long shot, at best.  

OldArmy
OldArmy

Yep, but this conference realignment shuffle is interesting when you take it to the extremes. Like John said, its really weird out there right now.  And my poor little head can't wrap itself around divorcing the Horns just to get hitched again. One of my buddies from school married the same woman three times..... divorced her twice..... 

Jeremy
Jeremy

If Notre Dame was added to the Big Ten, then for the 14th team, they would probably make a play for Mizzou.

buddha22
buddha22

Jeremy, if you are repeating something you've heard, quit because it is wrong. The big donors were fully behind going to the best conference and long term home for MIZZOU and when it became possible you saw it put in motion as they went to the SEC. In also isn't a mistake that the majority of fans were wholly behind that move, too. Don't be fooled by all the squaking, sometimes that gets more attention in the media. The surge in support, donations and even in the immediate impact on recruiting should tell you that no one, including MU, is leaving the SEC, period.

MoKelly
MoKelly

No way Missouri leaves the SEC for the Big 10. No freakin way.

OldArmy
OldArmy

 @MoKelly I agree. Missouri, more than A&M, benefits from admission into the SEC. Frankly, I do not know what the state of Missouri gives as awards to its citizens who serve the state above and beyond the call of duty, but the guys who negotiated Mizzou's entry into the SEC should get that award. 

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

Jeremy...

 

They passed on Missouri once.  Think Maryland or Rutgers instead.  Both are AAU schools -- HUGE for Big Ten presidents -- and both are in major media centers (Baltimore/DC vs New York).  

 

Additionally, Penn State wants an Eastern rival and the Big Ten needs to move into at least one state that's not showing slow population growth (which Missouri actually is showing slow growth, like so many current Big Ten states).

 

If the Big Ten grabs Notre Dame, expect Maryland to be Target A and Rutgers to be the fallback choice.

 

Thanks for reading the site,

John

OldArmy
OldArmy

 @John at MrSEC Interesting. Kind of like trying to nail warm jello to a tree though. I worked on a space radar program, and when the program manager was briefing the SECDef, he was asked, "Can this work?" The PM replied, "There are only three things we need to know to design, budget for, build, launch and operate a Space Radar system. Unfortunately, we do not know what any of those three things are."

 

Seems to me, outside of the SEC, there are 3 "stable" conferences right now, just not sure who they are......

John at MrSEC
John at MrSEC moderator

OldArmy...

 

Agree.  SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 all seem healthy at the moment.  The Big East is grasping at straws and the Big 12 could become healthy and join the four leagues mentioned above with just a couple of moves.  

 

However, if someone from the ACC gets nabbed, then things could start to tremble again.

 

From folks I've spoken to across the SEC and in high-flying college sports circles, I don't think we're on the verge of any more MAJOR quakes for a while though.  And by MAJOR quakes, I mean moves that lead to further reactions across the major conferences.

 

Crazy time.

 

Thanks for reading the site,

John

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    Hi I am trying to preview articles from blogger on a separate site, where the most recent article would show up and could link to the blog itself. I have googled enough and read about rss. I can code html, xml etc. I would really appreciate any help.

  17. Trackback says:

    Good info

    I am looking to start a blog, though I don’t know which is the best way to go about this. Some of my friends recommend buying a domain from iPage, and then using WordPress. However, I feel that this is limiting. My next option is through TypePad as it…

  18. Maybe…

    Whenever i start a video call/ web cam/voice call on live messenger, skype, google talk, yahoo messenger, my computer totally freezes, and gives an echo. I have to restart it manually. Sometimes it comes with a blue screen, and it restarts itself.. I a…

  19. Trackback says:

    I like your blog

    I’m juggling about 10 things right now so I don’t have that much time to play around learning how to make a website. What are good resources to jump-start implementing javascript, php, mySQL, etc?.



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