Yea,it is especially hard to win at Rupp when the home team shoots 20 more free throws than the visitors and the coach works the officials in the media before the game. that helps establish a home advantage whether you need it or not.
Florida and Alabama, beware. Tonight you take your Super Tuesday acts on the road to Kentucky and Auburn respectively. According to the numbers, the Gators and Tide each have less than a 25% chance of winning.
So far, SEC teams are 37-12 at home this season in conference action. That’s a 76% winning clip. And of the 12 road wins pulled off so far, five have come from unbeaten-in-league-play Kentucky.
Alabama is 1-3 on the road this year with a victory over Georgia. That one road win is a bit less impressive when you consider that the Bulldogs are responsible for three of the league’s 12 home losses this year.
Florida is 2-1 on the road, making them the only SEC squad whose name doesn’t end in “ucky” that’s got a winning road record. Their victories came at South Carolina (who like Georgia are responsible for three of the SEC’s 12 home losses) and at Ole Miss. The win in Oxford is a good one as the Rebels are 3-1 at home in SEC play.
But Tad Smith Coliseum is not Rupp Arena. The Cats have yet to lose at home under John Calipari who is in his third year with UK.
As for Bama, Anthony Grant’s 1-3 road team will face an Auburn squad that’s actually 3-1 at home (the Tigers’ only home loss was to Kentucky).
If you feel the need to place some wagers tonight — and we certainly don’t encourage that type of irresponsible behavior — put your money on the home teams. If you’d done that all year, you’d have won more than three out of every four SEC contests.