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SEC Game Projections For 11/19/11

Before we get to today’s projections, picks and predictions, just a note on the BCS title race.  LSU’s Les Miles said in the immediate aftermath of his team’s 9-6 overtime when over Alabama two weeks ago that he would be “honored” to step on the field against the Tide’s team one more time… if it came to that.

Well, it looks like it’s coming to that.  In two weeks, every unbeaten contender for the crown — except distant outsider Houston — has fallen.  (It’s a lot easier to upset teams with high-flying offenses than it is teams with dominating defenses.) 

Last night’s Iowa State over Oklahoma State upset gave #3, once-beaten should give Bama a real bounce.  We wrote on Monday that Oklahoma would knock off the Cowboys and would likely get their own BCS computer boost in the process.  Now, even if once-beaten OU does beat OSU, the Sooners’ reward will be considerably smaller.

If LSU and Alabama win out, they should get the nod from the BCS computers.  Only the human vote could move someone past Bama.  But it seems the Tide will be okay on that front, too.  In past years, voters have sometimes jumped a team up in the final polls in an effort to change the BCS title game (in 2006, voters gave a big, last-minute boost to Florida in order to avoid an Ohio State-Michigan rematch).  This year, there is no clear cut next-team-up.  Even if the humans decide they don’t want to see a rematch, their votes will likely be so split that it will have little impact on the final poll… leaving the computer selection of LSU-Alabama as the title game matchup.

So for LSU and Alabama, it appears they control their own destinies.  So long as they take care of business.

And now the game projections for what amounts to an SEC/Southern Conference Challenge weekend:


The Citadel at South Carolina
12:00pm on Pay-Per-View

Why It Matters:  Carolina is trying to get to 10 wins for just the second-time in school history and a victory today would be number nine on the season.

What Vegas Says:  South Carolina by 39.5 (opened at -39.5)

What We Say:  The Citadel is 2-6 in Southern Conference play.

Prediction:  South Carolina 45, The Citadel 7


Kentucky at Georgia
12:21pm on SEC Network

Why It Matters:  Georgia can wrap up the East Division and a spot in the SEC Championship Game with a win.

What Vegas Says:  Georgia by 31 (opened at -28.5)

What We Say:  UGA has improved steadily as the season has gone on… and Kentucky hasn’t.

Prediction:  Georgia 34, Kentucky 13


Furman at Florida
1:00pm on Pay-Per-View

Why It Matters:  A scrimmage with the Paladins should help the Gator offense heading into its rivalry game with Florida State.

What Vegas Says:  Florida by 31 (opened at -31)

What We Say:  Florida becomes bowl eligible in a walk.

Prediction:  Florida 44, Furman 7


Georgia Southern at Alabama
1:00pm on Pay-Per-View

Why It Matters:  Alabama now has a BCS rematch in its sites and and it can’t afford any injuries heading into next weekend’s Iron Bowl.

What Vegas Says:  Alabama by 43 (opened at -43)

What We Say:  The Tide defense will be too much for a solid Georgia Southern team sporting Bear Bryant’s old option offense.

Prediction:  Alabama 48, Georgia Southern 3


Samford at Auburn
1:00pm on Pay-Per-View

Why It Matters:  Following last week’s trouncing at the hands of Georgia and with Alabama up next, Auburn needs to rebuild its confidence.

What Vegas Says:  Auburn by 31.5 (opened at -31.5)

What We Say:  Pat Sullivan returns home to The Plains, but his Samford team will be run right out of the stadium by Auburn’s offense.

Prediction:  Auburn 42, Samford 14


Mississippi State at Arkansas
3:30pm on CBS

Why It Matters:  Its chances are slim, but Arkansas is still keeping an eye on the BCS standings.

What Vegas Says:  Arkansas by 14 (opened at -13)

What We Say:  We keep waiting for MSU to upset someone, but Arkansas’ offense appears to be too much.

Prediction:  Arkansas 34, Mississippi State 17


LSU at Ole Miss
7:00 on ESPN

Why It Matters:  LSU still controls its own destiny in the BCS standings.

What Vegas Says:  LSU by 30.5 (opened at -28.5)

What We Say:  Teams with lame-duck coaches and suspended quarterbacks and tailbacks don’t upset top-ranked teams.  (Do they?)

Prediction:  LSU 37,  Ole Miss 10


Vanderbilt at Tennessee
7:00 on ESPNU

Why It Matters:  With a win, Vandy can lock up its own bowl bid while preventing its cross-state rival from going bowling at all.

What Vegas Says:  Vanderbilt by 1.5 (opened at -1)

What We Say:  The eyeball test says Vandy, but history says UT (especially if Tyler Bray can give the Vol offense some confidence).

Prediction:  Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 23

 


3 comments
john
john

you guys have been screy close this year on some UT games.

strickinms
strickinms

I don't see Ole Miss scoring any more than 1 FG, and they may go scoreless.

FFB
FFB

You might be right but the only problem with an Alabama LSU rematch is the first game was a boring snooze fest. I dont want to see that game again. Not that I dont think both teams are great, it was just a poorly played game last time, News Flash people outside of the SEC were not impressed with either team.

Trackbacks

  1. [...] SEC Game Projections For 11/19/11MrSECWe wrote on Monday that Oklahoma would knock off the Cowboys and would likely get their own BCS computer boost in the process. Now, even if once-beaten OU does beat OSU, the Sooners' reward will be considerably smaller. If LSU and Alabama win out, …Alabama Crimson Tide: Why BCS Computer Polls Could Be Godsend for AlabamaBleacher Report [...]



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