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Expansion By The Numbers 9: Academic Fit

As we enter the homestretch of our numbers-specific look at SEC expansion, it might be a good time to look back at what we’ve done so far.

For starters, you can read our original lengthy piece on SEC expansion from May of 2010 right here.  There are numbers involved, but our goal was to find which schools — out of the 18 we studied — would best fit the SEC’s profile for expansion.  Take a look at it and you’ll find that Texas A&M — viewed as a tag-along with Texas by most people — and Missouri — not considered an SEC option by any other major outlets at the time — scored very highly in our study.

In the past year since that piece was published, we’ve spoken with a number of administrators and sources at BCS-level institutions who have said our breakdowns were on the mark in terms of what school presidents consider when discussing expansion.  Armed with those attaboys, we contacted — and were contacted by — other sources in the television, media rights and college sports industries.  We asked them for their views on what matters, why it matters, and how much it matters.  And with that information, we began this year’s SEC expansion project.

The gist?  We chose a ridiculous 35 schools for comparison just to makes sure someone didn’t say, “What about my team?”  Sadly, we’ve gotten a lot of that anyway.  But we looked at 35 knowing that not all of those 35 would be candidates for the SEC in any way, shape or form.

We also chose to use very simple numbers — often times the numbers used by our sources as examples when talking to us — to help explain what categories matter when it comes to expansion.

 

Part 1: Grading Potential SEC Partners served as our introduction.

Part 2: Television Markets was a look at the Top 40 television markets located within 200 miles driving distance of a school’s campus.  A television network executive suggested we just look at the Top 40 markets because that’s likely what networks would consider.  We put the line at 200 miles because a line had to be put somewhere.

Part 3: Total State Population provided an indication of the number of potential fans, cable households, and future students/alumni/donors living in a school’s home state.

Part 4: Proximity broke down the distances from our 35 schools to the center of the current conference — Birmingham.

Part 5: Fertile Recruiting Ground was an examination of the total number of NFL draft picks from each school’s home state over a 10-year period.

Part 6: Athletic Budgets looked at — wait for it — the athletic spending of each of the 35 schools on our list.

Part 7: Football Stadium Size attempted to put a gauge on how much fan support schools count upon as well as the level of “football craze” on each campus.

Part 8: Athletic Success broke down Director’s Cup success — in order to grasp schools’ overall athletic success — and the number of NCAA Tournament and bowl bids received over a 10-year span — in order to judge success in the two biggest money-making sports.

 

So…

* We’re looking at too big a selection of schools and we know it.

* We’re using simple numbers in order to avoid debate (though that really hasn’t helped much because anyone seeing a number that makes his/her school look bad immediately attacks that number).

* We know full well that Mike Slive and the SEC’s presidents will not be using a formula to judge expansion candidates.  We’re using a formula only as a tool to show which categories matter — according to our multiple sources — when it comes to expansion.

* We’ve tried to make it clear that these categories are numeric representations of “reputations” held by the 35 schools we’re discussing.  When it comes to academics, for example, we doubt Bernie Machen, Dan Jones and Harris Pastides will be thumbing through the college rankings of Forbes or US News and World Report.  But they will, however, consider whether or not a school would help the SEC’s academic brand… and therefore their own institutions’.  The numbers we use help to give you an idea of what reputations these schools carry in a number of areas.  We’re using something specific to give you a view into the generic.

* We’ve also tried to make it clear that the politics and timing of expansion can make one category the most important one minute and the least important the next.  Think of it like drafting quarterbacks.  QB1 and QB2 might be separated by their accuracy.  But QB2 and QB3 might be equally accurate which would require them to judged based upon their mobility, for example.  In other words — just as our sources have tried to provide for us — we’re trying to provide for you a ballpark idea of how these decisions are made.  Nothing is cut and dried.  These categories matter, but they may matter in totally different ways to different conferences.

* Finally, we haven’t skewed the numbers.  In fact we haven’t even tallied them yet.  We’ve written on numerous occasions that Missouri will be accepted as School #14 if it breaks away from the Big 12.  We’re not alone in saying that, of course.  We’ve said that numerous SEC sources believe Slive would love to land North Carolina (though we think that’s impossible).  And we’ve said that West Virginia likely would be a fallback choice only, even though we believe WVU would be an excellent athletic and cultural fit.  (Our sources have told us we’re right about West Virginia.)  We’ve also stated our opinion that Florida State would be the best possible “get” for the league, but we’ve weighted things so strongly toward “new” markets and new land in this expansion series that FSU may score very, very low in our formula.  Even so, we have our views, we know what shaped them, and we know who shares them.  So we don’t need to try and convince you to agree with us.  We’re not trying to brainwash Slive or influence any SEC presidents (as has been suggested), though I’m sure they’re all glued to this site as we speak.  If you agree with our views, great.  If you don’t, fine.  The only thing we’re trying to convince you of is what matters in these expansion discussions.

 

All that said, in Part 9, we’re going to look at the academics of our 35 schools.

This Category:  Academic Fit

Why:  Because the SEC has a definite “type” of school and that similarity helps bind it together.  For our purposes, we’ll look at whether or not the 35 schools on our list are an academic fit with the SEC’s 12 current schools.  And we’ll do this by studying a number of different factors.

US News and World Report’s 2012 rankings help to give a general idea of a school’s academic reputation.  Total enrollment is considered.  Ditto whether or not a school is private or a major, public university.  We’ll look at religious affiliation as well as the size of the city in which each school is located.

To find the academic fits out there, we first had to identify the SEC’s profile.  And here’s what that profile is (not counting soon-to-be-member Texas A&M):

 

* A public institution.  Vanderbilt is the SEC’s only private school.

* A school with an average total enrollment of about 27,000 students (typically with a lesser emphasis on post-graduate studies and research).

* A school ranked somewhere between #58 (Florida) and #157 (Mississippi State).  Vanderbilt ranks #17, but it’s certainly not the norm in the SEC.  Note also that while presidents would love to nab a school ranked highly (meaning a school with a superb reputation), those schools aren’t likely to jump to Slive’s league.  Call it the “halo effect.”  School presidents want to associate with other top-name institutions in order to improve their own school’s reputation (and donations).

* A school with no religious affiliation.  Not a single SEC school is tied to a church.

* A school in a somewhat rural area.  With the exception of Vanderbilt, no SEC school is located in a city with more than 300,000 inhabitants.  This “one-horse town” factor is one reason SEC fans are so passionate about their schools’ athletic exploits.  With the exception of Nashville, there are no SEC towns featuring major league teams.  There are no “commuter” schools.

 

That’s a pretty clear profile.  Now which of our 35 schools fit it?

The chart below lists the schools from the ACC followed by the Big East, Big 12 and our five “wild cards.”  Areas that do not fit the SEC’s profile are italicized.  For us to deem a school as a poor academic fit, it must fail to match the SEC profile in two of our four main categories.  (Enrollment varies, so we’ll not count off there.  That category is just for your information.)

 

School US News & World Report ’12 Rank Total Enrollment Private or Public Religious Affiliation City of 300,000 An SEC Fit?
Boston College 31 14,015 Private Catholic Yes NO
Clemson 68 19,453 Public None No PERFECT
Duke 10 14,983 Private Methodist No NO
Florida State 101 40,416  Public  None  No  PERFECT
Georgia Tech 36 20,720 Public None Yes  NO
Maryland 55 37,595 Public None No YES
Miami 38 15,657 Private  None Yes  NO
N. Carolina 29  29,390 Public None No YES
NC State 101 34,376 Public None Yes  YES
Pittsburgh 58 28,823 Public None Yes  YES
Syracuse 62 20,407 Private  None No YES
Virginia 25 24,391 Public None No YES
Virginia Tech 71  31,006  Public  None  No  PERFECT
Wake Forest 25  7,162 Private  None No NO
Cincinnati 143 32,283 Public None Yes  YES
Connecticut 58  25,498 Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Louisville 164  21,234 Public None Yes NO
Rutgers 68  38,912  Public  None  No  PERFECT
S. Florida 181  40,431 Public None Yes  NO
W. Virginia 164 29,306 Public None No YES
Baylor 75 14,900 Private  Baptist  No NO
Iowa State 97  28,682 Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Kansas 101  28,697  Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Kansas State 143  23,588  Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Missouri 90  32,415  Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Oklahoma 101  30,303  Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Oklahoma State 132  23,522  Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Texas 45  51,195 Public None Yes NO
Texas A&M 58  49,129  Public  None  No  PERFECT 
Texas Tech 160  31,637 Public None No YES
E. Carolina 194  27,783 Public None No YES
Navy 14  4,603 Private  None No NO
Notre Dame 19  11,992 Private  Catholic  No NO
Penn State 45  45,233 Public None No YES
TCU 97 9,142 Private  Disciples of Christ  Yes  NO

 

* Keeping in mind that we’re talking about an academic fit and not whether or not a school is a good fit location-wise, athletics-wise, etc… we would consider 12 schools to be “perfect” fits with the SEC from an academic sense: Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Connecticut, Rutgers, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.

* Last summer, the whole world expected the SEC to turn east in expansion, but instead it’s landed Texas A&M, talked to Oklahoma (last year), and is apparently waiting on Missouri this year.  The dysfunctional make-up of their conference is one reason for that, sure, but no league more closely resembles the SEC than the Big 12.  Like the SEC, the Big 12 is made up mostly of big, public schools in rural areas.  Big 12 schools fit the SEC profile.  It shouldn’t be a surprise that the SEC is considering Big 12 schools or membership.

* A number of schools are listed as being academic fits with the SEC, without being perfect.  Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia and Penn State are all considered to be better academic schools than those in the SEC — fair or not.  They also reside in conferences that are considered to be more academically reputable than the SEC.  And we haven’t yet seen any school migrate from the ACC, Big Ten or Pac-12 for leagues with lesser scholastic reputations.

* NC State, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are located in larger cities — all with pro teams — and that doesn’t fit the SEC profile.  But of those, NC State would be the most likely SEC target because the Wolfpack would give the SEC a foothold in a large Southern state.  Another plus for NC State is the fact that despite the city’s size, the only major league professional franchise in town happens to be an NHL team.

* Schools like Texas Tech, West Virginia and East Carolina would add very little to the SEC’s academic reputation.  As we’ve noted elsewhere on this site, we’ve heard from more than one source that there are presidents in the league who have concerns about WVU’s reputation.  That’s not to say it’s a bad school or that that fact is a dealbreaker, only that it’s been mentioned as an issue.  Sorry to anyone that upsets, but it’s what we’ve been told by people working in the administration side of more than one SEC school.  (Something has cause WVU to be passed over in the current expansion frenzy.)  And if there are academic concerns regarding WVU’s ability to aid the SEC’s reputation, you can bet the same would be true of Texas Tech and East Carolina.  Especially ECU.

* Syracuse would be a perfect fit from an academic standpoint if it weren’t a private school.  The SEC only has one of those at the moment.

For the sake of comparison, here are the facts and figures for the SEC’s current roster of universities:

 

School US News & World Report ’12 Rank Total Enrollment Private or Public Religious Affiliation City of 300,000 An SEC Fit?
Alabama 75 30,127 Public None No PERFECT
Arkansas 132 21,405 Public None No PERFECT
Auburn 82 25,078 Public None No PERFECT
Florida 58 49,827 Public None No PERFECT
Georgia 62 34,677 Public None No PERFECT
Kentucky 124 27,108 Public None No PERFECT
LSU 128 29,451 Public None No PERFECT
Miss. State 157 19,644 Public None No PERFECT
Ole Miss 143 17,085 Public None No PERFECT
S. Carolina 111 29,597 Public None No PERFECT
Tennessee 101 30,312 Public None No PERFECT
Vanderbilt 17 12,714 Private None Yes NO

 

* As you can see, 11 of the SEC’s 12 institutions are very, very similar.  It’s not hard to spot the league’s overall profile.

* Not surprisingly, Texas A&M will fit the SEC profile perfectly.  And if Missouri joins the league, MU will be a perfect academic fit as well.

* Vanderbilt is clearly the outsider in the bunch.  A Top 20, private university, located in a major metropolitan area with professional teams competing for entertainment dollars.

* With Vanderbilt, the average US News and World Report rank for an SEC school is #99.  Without Vandy, that number falls to about #107.

Up next in Part 10 of our SEC expansion series, we’ll provide some final bonus categories, a full tally of the scores, and a number of observations and conclusions regarding each school on our list.  We will award bonus points or three additional categories — AAU membership, expansion of the SEC’s geographic footprint, and recent championships.

 


33 comments
Brian
Brian

Duke is no more associated with the Methodist Church than Vandy is or than Wake Forest is with the Baptist church. Historically yes, Duke was a methodist school, as was Vanderbilt and Wake was baptist, but they are all governed by an independent non-denominational board. You should have none by Duke's religion. It is probably more jewish than methodist.

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

An SEC invite puts ECU on a national stage. The academics would no doubt improve there.

Karen
Karen

Just a thought here...ECU, IF it got all the money that NCst , UNC, etc did from NC..then it could compete on an even playing field too..meaning
the academic rating MIGHT appear different. IF, that is the only thing holding an invite back, might it not be worth a shot because with the infusion of mega $$$$$$$$$$$, might not all factors improve...I know they would.....ECU basically is competing here with very little financial help unlike the other 2 schools, or for that fact many of the schools, but hey...thats OK..we will make it...and we'll owe nothing to NC as its state university...if they cared so much where were they then?????

Brad
Brad

I think your analysis is biased against the University of Texas. True it is in Austin with more than 1 million in its metro area, but so what? UT is the only game in town there. Also, both UT and A&M and Florida have more than 50,000 total students for the 2011-12 year. Check Wikipedia. Finally, UT is only very the SEC's top academically ranked schools (Florida and A&M at 58)(UT is #45), and far far beneath Vandy. In fact, I am surprised there is any difference in ranking between A&M and UT according to U.S. News and World Report. Over here in Texas, both schools are viewed as equal in quality by most people (unless you are speaking to a UT grad! lol) - they are both the flagship state universities for the State of Texas. Overall, I think the University of Texas would be a perfect SEC fit, but for the school's tendency to want to call the shots and not be a team player.

UofA72
UofA72

Not all enrollment numbers are out for the 2011-2012 year, but Arkansas' official enrollment is 23,299, up by almost 2,000 over last years 21,405. Info is from local tv website in Fayetteville.

John
John

Your city population data for SEC schools is misleading. Take Knoxville, for example. While it's true that the city itself has less than 300,000 people, that's just the city limits. Knox County alone has 450,000 residents. The metro area (MSA, according to the census bureau) would be a better indication of the true size of a place. These numbers are readily available. So the casual reader would look at Knoxville and think it's smaller than Lexington, just going by city limits. But Lexington has a consolidated city-county government, so it's city figures reflect the population of the entire county. Metro Knoxville has almost 700,000 people and is significantly larger than Lexington. So just looking at city population is very misleading.

List of SEC cities by METRO AREA according to the 2010 census.

1. Nashville - 1,582,000
2. Baton Rouge - 802,000
3. Knoxville - 800,000
4. Columbia - 744,000
5. Lexington - 472,000
6. Fayetteville - 463,000
7. Gainesville - 258,000
8. Tuscaloosa - 211,000
9. Athens - 189,000
10. Auburn - 130,500
11. Starkville - 24,000
12. Oxford - 11,000

A further measure would be Combined Statistical Area, which takes into account pretty much everywhere that gets a city's newspaper and television stations. In this case Knoxville would have 1,050,000 people. So to use just city limits is very misleading. You know which Southern city has the largest physical city limits? Jacksonville. So it would appear to be larger than, say, Tampa. But it's not. MSA or CSA is a true measure of size.

UofA72
UofA72

Another great article r.e. expansion.

I might have added a column for "Burns Furniture" to see who fits better, Mizzou or WVU.

"Some Yahoo"
"Some Yahoo"

I think the city size stat is a bit misleading. Metro Knoxville and Metro Columbia are both 600k +. I dont think rural is all that important to the mix. It seems to be that even the slightly "rural" schools have closely connected cities (Athens to Atlanta, T-town to B'ham, even Clemson has Greenville). ???

Jack Edwards
Jack Edwards

People in Boston, Syracuse, and Hartford would say that they more in common culturally with Canadians than then people in Tennessee, Alabama, or North Carolina. Do really see the University of New Jersey in the SEC? Might as well add the University of Nova Scotia to the list.

Larry
Larry

Great post and very insightful. One minor quibble...why do you even have Penn St. on the list? That is beyond absurd. For every obvious reason, but the most glaring being they signed their media rights away with the rest of the B1G schools for the next 20 years.

Love the content of the site. Thx for all the info.

MIZ_SEC
MIZ_SEC

It was very interesting that the Vandy Chancellor's interview from a day or two ago explicitly said A&M's AAU membership was very attractive.

SEC already knows they have the best athletic product, and now they want to raise the academic perception. Makes total sense.

BamaWahoo
BamaWahoo

Also, Duke's Methodist affiliation is, shall we say, loose.

BamaWahoo
BamaWahoo

If the purpose is to identify the best candidates from both sides (the school's as well as the SEC's) I see the point of defining as not "Perfect" schools that are more academically strong than the typical SEC school. But from the SEC's perspective it seems to me that better schools would be even more "perfect." Hard to imagine the SEC looking at Michigan or Notre Dame for example and thinking of their academic reputation as a negative.

Of course, my agenda here as a Bama born (and fan) UVA grad is to promote UVA - which I realize will never happen in real life so no flames please. We've been ranked above VT in pretty much every category here. A fact I'm enjoying. :)

Clarence
Clarence

City size matters in academic fit, but probably because larger city means more of a commuter school. Not sure about the schools on the list, but if you were to have Houston, (UH), it would apply.

Clarence
Clarence

Interesting view. This category is more subjective. You have to make a determination of Slive and SEC presidents' desires for conference academic profile.

My take is they want to move the academic average to the plus side, so AAU status becomes a big factor. The gap between WVU -yes and A&M, Mizzou-Perfect is actually huge.

I would add another column and give points for having AAU status.

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

UofA72...

Again, we used the enrollment figures provided by the schools to US News and World Report. It's just for comparison's sake anyway. Having 23,500 vs 24,500 vs 18,500 really doesn't matter that much.

Thanks for reading, as always,
John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

John...

I'm going to guess that if you want to change from city numbers of 300,000 to metro numbers with about an 800,000 cut-off, you'll find that the same schools would likely be viewed as non-fits.

And if you want to look up the metro populations for each of the 35 schools we're comparing, have at it.

Thanks for reading,
John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

"Some Yahoo"...

How many SEC schools are located in cities featuring major competition for the entertainment dollar? Only Vanderbilt is located in a city with professional franchises.

I think the lack of commuter schools is telling. Jackie Sherrill -- who coached at Texas A&M and Mississippi State -- recently said that A&M's campus life is a fit with the SEC. The same could be said for 11 of the SEC's 12 institutions.

But that's just my take.

Thanks for reading,
John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

Jack Edwards...

Read the piece and you'll see why we've included so many schools... that we know from Day One would not be SEC targets.

John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

Larry...

Many of these schools are absurd. And yet we continue to get requests or more schools. "What about Sewanee?"

We included Penn State simply because Joe Paterno last month referenced talk that maybe Penn State would explore moving. (He's long wanted an Eastern partner for PSU in the Big Ten.)

I would say of the 35 schools on our list, about 10 would even be remote possibilities. But the bigger the selection, the more we see how schools stack up in a number of areas.

Thanks for reading,
John

Karen
Karen

DUKE IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE A PRIVATE SCHOOL....that family owned and "allowed" factory workers to live in their town, if they worked for them..its now called Harnett County, the town of Erwin....yes, they are well connected and affilated. the ACC is more of their kind of fit.

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

NCDukie...

Please, no links on the site. We get too many ads and too many people touting their own blogs.

That said, in the interest of using ONE source, we went by US News' most recent listings and they have Duke as a school with Methodist ties. I don't think anyone thinks of Duke as a Methodist school, but a listing is a listing and that was our source.

But Duke won't be joining the SEC anyway. For one, a Top 10 institution wouldn't leave the ACC for a league that's looked down upon by the high-brows in its current conference... and it's also a private institution. So it wouldn't fit the league's "profile" anyway. (Even though the SEC would love to land the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels if it could.)

But thanks for the comment. Just try to refrain from linkage.

All the best,
John

Milo Moon
Milo Moon

It also comes down to the fact that the Schools in the SEC are tired of being considered dumb southern football schools. The universities in the SEC academically stack up with anyone. Each SEC school has world class departments, and are some of the top research facilities in the nation. Several SEC should already be in the AAU if it was not for that stereotype. The fact that UGA is not already in the AAU, and GT was just added last year shows just how biased the AAU is toward southern schools. If Mizzou is added to the SEC, you can bet that 2-3 more SEC schools will be added to the AAU roles in the next 5 years.

Southern_Guy
Southern_Guy

Vanderbilt was originally a methodist school. They still have a Seminary.

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

BamaWahoo...

As we tried to explain in the article, the presidents of those schools with higher rankings than all other SEC schools (save Vanderbilt) will likely want to stay in their current high-brow leagues. So those schools got a "YES" they would fit, but they're not a "PERFECT" fit the profile of the league's current schools.

Thanks for reading the site,
John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

Clarence...

In some ways, this category is less subjective. If you examine the existing SEC membership and arrive at the same "profile" that we did, the goal is to simply check yea or nay on whether a school matches in certain areas.

However, as we stated in the piece, the idea was to give just a general idea of a school's academic reputation and "fit."

Thanks for reading,
John

UofA72
UofA72

Wasn't trying to correct you. I knew these were all last years numbers. I was just taking a little pride in another good growth year for Arkansas.

We have almost doubled enrollment since joining the SEC.

John
John

Take a suggestion without getting offended, dude. Damn. If you're not concerned about relative city size, then don't include a column suggesting relative city size is important. This was intended as a comparison, right? Maybe someone knows more about something than the almighty JohnMrSEC. Wow. Some of us have advanced degrees in subjects more, er, advanced than journalism.

"Some Yahoo"
"Some Yahoo"

No, I agree, but which SEC school's campus life doesnt fit the SEC model? Vandy? I never felt like Vandy's campus life was any different. Although, one of unique things about Vandy, when compared to other SEC schools, is that the majority of the student body is not from the state the institution is located in.

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

Milo Moon...

The main difference between SEC schools and those in the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 is that they are focused more on undergraduate work than post-graduate research. That helps to form the perception that SEC institutions -- or schools like West Virginia, for that matter -- aren't acclaimed universities.

You're correct, it's a perception thing. And you're also correct that the SEC presidents are sensitive to that notion... as proven by their decision to overrule their football coaches and nix -- to some extent -- oversigning.

Thanks for reading,
John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

UofA72...

And that's quite an interesting factoid in itself. Speaks to some extent how being seen in more areas can increase applications (and students and alumni and donors), which we mentioned in one of our earlier Expansion By The Numbers pieces.

John

johnmrsec
johnmrsec

John...

If I don't respond to questions and posts -- I'm a bad person.

If I do respond but do it just as nastily as the original poster -- I'm a bad person.

And if -- as was the case in this situation -- I simply respond in a friendly way to someone making suggestion, explain that a change wouldn't make much difference, and then tell him to have at it if he likes... it's misinterpreted as me being angry or rude and -- I'm a bad person.

There are no inflections in posts, but I sure didn't mean the above as any kind of nasty response.

So -- once again -- I'm going to try to stop responding to any/all posts. Can't win. And of course, when I don't respond, I'll be ripped for thinking I'm too good to talk to our readers.

John

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